lay the favs in flat handicaps

[swift tuttle]

On the Adrian Massey website, statistics are kept on horse racing. I have copied a set of statistics below showing the 'fate of the favourites' by Race Type for flat racing over the period 1991 to 2005. The first column is number of races, the second column is percentage of favourites that won.


Sell Stk 2778 33%
Clm Stk 3608 37%
Maiden 13320 43%
Sell Hcp 1165 21%
Amateur 983 27%
Handicap 24701 25%
Stakes 8018 38%
Grp Stks 1491 33%

As can be seen, favourites don't do particularly well in handicaps. Over 25000 race results don't lie and these percentages are very reliable.


So, a winning system would be to lay the favourite in flat racing handicaps. Nice and easy - or is it?

How do you do it in practice? As far as I know, the only places to lay are the betting exchanges so you would need to be at your PC to place the lay bets just before the off (full time job!). To say nothing of the large number of races where horse are vying for favouritism right up to the off. Joint favourites and co-favourites are an added complication.


Does anyone have any good ideas on how to set up a blanket coverage, automated if possible, for lay bets of this type?

[fairfranco]

get some kind of bot.

but i don't use any myself and don't know much about the different ones commeericaly available.

i imagine there's something out there that will automatially do whatever you want on the lowest odds horse.

[Betfairalfie]

Swift - does sound easy doesn't it

But % winning favourites stats aren't too useful unless you know average price of the favs and P/L at Betfair prices. No good taking on a 21% winning fav strike rate as a layer if the average favourite odds on Betfair is 7.00. With fate of fav stats being freely available you often see higher exchange prices than you would expect to see based on standard SP+ calculations, i.e. you are not the first to spot the trends and certainly not the first to try and take advantage of them !

The internet hero Adrian Massey also has a system checker tool that has an option of using estimated Betfair prices http://www.adrianmassey.com/db2/dbaccess.php?flat=1

That’s a good place to start from as it analyses 9 years of races. But treat it as a guide, maybe to show which races are in favour of the fav backers and which favour the fav layers, check odds on Betfair and then decide whether to play or walk away. The RP also does detailed on-line pdf format cards (PRINT CARD) and these show ten years history of the specific race, also useful. So what you could do is look through the AM site, look through the RP pdf cards and work out which races are in your favour and ONLY study those. Then you could look at the race and work out whether your judgement supports the stats, and only play when it does.

From practical experience I can tell you that "playing the trends" is not the entire answer to making long-term profits. Sorry to bang on about it but every successful systems I know incorproates an element of trading.

I should also point out, again, that lack of discipline will kill even the best systems.

Be Lucky - stay cool

[swift tuttle]

Good point jimny. I've done the table again, this time with a third column which is the percentage return on win bets.

Sell Stk 2778 33% 91%
Clm Stk 3608 37% 96%
Maiden 13320 43% 97%
Sell Hcp 1165 21% 81%
Amateur 983 27% 91%
Handicap 24701 25% 90%
Stakes 8018 38% 92%
Grp Stks 1491 33% 87%


Handicaps, along with group races, are the worst race types from a favourite backer's point of view. Conversely, they are the best from a layer's point of view.


Your point about Betfair odds is one of the difficulties with all of this. You have to choose your time to place the lay bet and your timing may not be right in terms of the Betfair market fluctuations.

[swift tuttle]

Thanks for the advice Alfie - didn't see your post until after I'd replied to jimny.

I'll have a think about what you say and also have a look at the RP stats you mention.

[Betfairalfie]

Sorry I may have gone off on a slight tangent there.

Automated tools? To be honest I don't use them to place bets. I do use Betfair trader as its free, but I only use it for the 1 second market refresh rate. All my bets/trades are placed directly through the Betfair website.

Alternatives - I assume you have a mobile and can use it at work? If you have narrowed it down to 3 or 4 races to play in every day then surely you could make 4 phone calls to BF just before the off time of each race, to lay your selction or lay the fav blindly? Or better still, sign up for mobile internet (e.g. T Mobile's web n walk package), download the Betfair interface onto your phone and play at work during your cigarette breaks

PS - maybe you don't smoke? Laying is quite scary, so i suggest you start !

[OlbgDeleted3188]

My point of view is that handicaps offer a useful starting place for laying favourites, but this has to be done using a little bit of brains aswell. If you look through the handicap cards on a particualr days racing, you have already dismissed 20-40% of the days races. This allows a bit more time for studying the chosen races.

As for price fluctuations on Betfair, lay them in your lunch break, you'll win on some and lose out on others, this should average out in the long run, iv layed horses that have steamed in and halved their odds after iv layed them and still lost, if theyre gonna lose it doesnt matter what odds you lay them at!!!

Hope this helps

P.S. i use web and walk along with the Betfair mobile interface and i can second Alfie, its the dogs ********

[swift tuttle]

Thanks pidger & alfie. Some good interesting stuff there.

You're right Pidger, the price of the lay is largey irrelevant for that particular bet but the strategy I'm talking about means that 21-25% of the time I'll be paying liabilities out so its in my interests to keep those liabilities as low as possible.


Not really much of a mobile phone person at present. I do work with computers so Im not scared of them or anything - just didnt realize that the internet access would be quite as good as you reckon. I'm back home from work for the 3.30 most days so this time of year I don't miss many races. It's probably not worth the cost of the rental for me.

[harryking]

Hi guys. I am a bit delayed in answering this one.
You have some good points but be carteful with just looking at the stats at the top of this thread. They are misleading I think.

NHF flat races may have a high number of losing favourites BUT what price were the favourites running at?
Laying a horse at anything higher than 5/1 is damn foolish if you ask me. Especially when there are unknown horses running NHF horses probably have little form/run history to go on

I have started experimental paper trading a laying system and would definately not put anything onto a highish odds horse to lay. It is risky - and just not worth the fact that the return is just as much as a less risky runner.

[swift tuttle]

You have some good points but be carteful with just looking at the stats at the top of this thread. They are misleading I think.

NHF flat races may have a high number of losing favourites BUT what price were the favourites running at?

NH Flat races are not categorised under Flat racing; they are under National Hunt racing. The stats I gave at the top of this thread are for flat racing. I don't think they are misleading; on the contrary, as they are based on so many races I think they are reliable.

[harryking]

Ahh yes, sorry for jumping in like that. You are, of course, correct. I have National Hunt in my head right now - my apologies.

I think you are certainly right about handicaps ofering the worst value bets or a backer and the best value for a layer. On average that is. If a horse wins whatever odds would be good for me!

I have been reading some stuff about some of the lower classes of races having manipulated odds (I think that was the term) the favourites having too low odds so it is in the bookies favour. It all seemed plausible. (And entertaining in a conspiracy sort of way)
Your figures may show something similar.