Last year in the summer I posted some selections associated with some systems I had developed at the time. In the main, the results were disappointing although a profit was made at the end of each of the two months I posted.
Now I have stumbled across something which initially seems astonishing, so I thought I would trial this for a month. I would welcome any comments which you feel you would like to make.
This time it is not so much a system as a method which requires a measure of subjectivity with the final selections.
1. Find any race of 5 or 6 runners, including races with larger fields which have been reduced because of non-runners.
2. Look at the place market on an exchange.
3. The favourite MUST be odds on in the place back market (i.e. 1.99 or less). No other runner in the race should be 1.99 or less.
4. (The subjective bit) Choose two horses (perhaps even three if prices allow) potentially to be placed from the remaining runners. Usually these will be either the 2nd, 3rd or 4th fav in the betting, but not necessarily so.
5. Place the same stake on both horses in the place back market. Occasionally a staggered stake may be a better option.
Thatâ€™s it! If one of the two selections finishes in the first two, a profit will be made, even after commission. Obviously the profit will be next to nothing if a selection is just over 2. Sometimes both will fill the places allowed (2) and a double return will ensue.
Stick like glue to the 5 or 6 runner rule. Less runners mean the race is going to be a tactical affair, more runners mean there is more potential for selections to be beaten.
Timing the bet is not crucial so long as the above applies. Bets placed using the above a couple of hours previous to the race sometimes is better than just before a race, where changing prices may suddenly make the race a non-qualifier (eg two horses become under 1.99)
PLEASE SEE MY SECOND BLOG FOR RESULTS TO DATE FROM FEBRUARY 16TH 2015.
Feb 16th (5 runners) Mrs Burbidge (2nd 7-2 2f) Place @ 2.5, returned 2.12 (and loser @ 2.64).
Profit after commission +0.48
Feb 17th (6) Fox Norton (Won 5-1j3f) Place @ 4.3, returned @ 3.57 (and loser @ 2.16).
Feb 19th (6) Sendiym (Won 11-4jf) Place @ 2.44, returned @ 2.26 (and loser @ 2.52).
Feb 20th (6 from 7) Mollyâ€™s A Diva (Won 11-2j3f) Place @ 3.65, returned @ 3.65 (and 2 losers @ 2.62 and 4). PAC +0.62
Feb 21st (6) Two losers Place @ 2.08, returned @ 2.12 and Place @ 3.7, returned @ 3.75.
Feb 22nd (6) Sands Cove (Won 9-2j2f) Place @ 2.68, returned @ 2.44, and Molko Jack (2nd 9-2) Place @ 2.52, returned @ 2.52. PAC + 3.04
Feb 22nd (5 from 6) Modem (2nd 11-2 4f) Place @ 2.58, returned @ 2.80 (and loser @ 2.4).
Feb 23rd (5) Two losers Place @ 2.7, returned @ 2.84 and Place @ 2.36, returned @ 2.3
Feb 25th (6) Lady Dutch (Won 8-1 4f) Place @ 3.8, returned @ 4.06 (and loser @ 2.48).
Feb 26th (6) Sub Lieutenant (Won 7-2 2f) Place @ 2.4, returned @ 2.32 (and loser @ 3.15).
The total profit on 10 races is +5.39. What is remarkable is that my picks have done so well for winners, as I opposed the favourite (Sendiym was backed into joint favourite after I had backed it). Profit at SP is 15.25.
PLEASE SEE MY THIRD BLOG FOR MONITORING FUTURE BETS.
NB I donâ€™t back in a race unless I feel sure of my selections.
Based on what has happened recently my strategy will have 3 strands
a) 1pt level stakes on 2 (perhaps 3) in a race in the place back market.
b) 1pt level stakes on the same horses for a win with a best odds bookie.
c) 4x1pt doubles on selections in 2 consecutive races. A speculative bet maybe but Iâ€™ll see how it goes.
Start date 1st March 2015. Bets will be timed when I had a bet for the price taken for the place bet. Reasons for my selections will also be posted in the Tipster competition section under bhewitt. The shorter price will get the win bet, the longer price will get the EW bet.
Thanks for reading all of this.
The first race for consideration was Newbury 3.00
Paddy the Stout 2nd @ 3.05 and a loser. Profit on race +1.05
Realize Won 11-4, placed @ 2.1 Profit + 0.1(I actually had Realize in the win market too @ 3.85)
Both lost -2.00
Loss on day of 0.85 on the place market.
Not a disaster and easily recoverable.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
I will back them both for a win with a bookie.
I will back them both for a win with a bookie.
The only qualifying races were
The results were
D2.35 Winner @ 4-1 4f
D3.10 Winner @ 3-1 2f
K2.25 Winner @ 9-2 3f
I should have waited until just before the races, as they were not qualifying races when I first posted today. Something else to bear in mind.
I have also realised that there are a lot of short price horses losing in these types of races, so lays will also be given to win 1pt.
So off I go.
The first selection is a lay on For 'N Against (Huntingdon 3.00). I can't decide on the two places, but feel confident this favourite will lose. The horse was beaten 27l at 16f but now runs over further. There is no evidence it can handle the distance. NB This lay is void if North Germany is the favourite.
In the 4.20 at Navan the two for a place are No Secrets and Letter of Credit. 1pt place on each. 1pt win on each. These two seem the only viable alternatives to Glenquest. If only one of them places a profit will ensue. At the present time though, the system conditions have not been met.
The above only will be counted in either race if the favourite is less than 2 on the place market with all others being 2 or above(including my selections).
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