Grip's Rest of the Season Permed Acca (Fun Bet Stakes)

gripperrocks
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Grip's Rest of the Season Permed Acca (Fun Bet Stakes)

Postby gripperrocks » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:23 am

Hello All,

Thought I'd share something I've done on occasion over the past few football seasons and will be having another go this time round: The Permed Accumulator.

I usually do quite a few Ante Post football bets just before the season starts always multiples of some description, and once we get to this time of year I tend to have a bit of a review, see how I'm getting on, and see if there's anything else that takes my fancy. Sometimes this is because my original bets are almost dead in the water, sometimes it's because I want to invest more due to it doing so well.

This time it's a bit of a mixed bag. I will be picking the following selections:
Premier League relegation:

1: Aston Villa @ 2.0 / 2: Wigan @ 2.38

Championship Promotion:

3: Bolton @ 34.0 / 4: Hull @ 3.0

League 1 promotion:

5: Sheff Utd @ 2.60 / 6: Coventry @ 8.50

League 2 Promotion:

7: Cheltenham @ 3.0 / 8:Fleetwood @ 5.0

All Prices B365
Quick bit of reasoning on each:

Villa: I can't see how they will turn their form around. Inexperience in nearly all areas, a manager who looks like a dead man walking and an owner that doesn't want to spend. The lack of investment, plus the amount of sales made over the last few seasons stinks of a club gearing up for relegation.

Wigan: Perennial survivors but they don't usually have an injury list like they have this time round.

Bolton: You may think I've gone mad and I quite possibly have, having already backed them pre-season. I just think they have the potential to improve vastly and quickly. Dawson on loan from WBA is a great signing and will hopefully shore up the defence, Matt Mills is still to come back from injury too. Eagles and Lee are already doing the business and the midfield should strengthen with the return of Mark Davies and Stuart Holden. Craig Davies was scoring at Barnsley and with a midfield of that quality supplying him I expect a decent return in the 2nd half of the season.

Hull: In a strong position just outside automatic promotion places and Steve Bruce has the knack of getting teams up.

Sheff Utd: Already holding a fairly strong position in 5th place and 8 points from the top. I reckon a playoff place is there for the taking at least.

Coventry: A horrid start but since Mark Robins has taken over they are going great guns. They have won 5 of their last 8 and continuing that kind of form should see them in the playoffs.

Cheltenham: Level points with the 3rd automatic promotion placed team so already in a strong position. Playoffs or better beckons methinks.

Fleetwood: They don't mess about this lot do they? They have made 7 signings in January already and are obviously making a real push for promotion. Only 2 points off playoffs already and have a game in hand on some teams.

So the bet I will be placing is 2*2*2*2=16 bets. I will use £1 per bet to keep it simple, but really I'm only going to be doing 20p per bet (£3.20 stake)

Just one winner from each line written will guarantee a wee bit of profit.

The good thing about picking promotion/relegation rather that league winners is that all lines are possible winners and that can bump winnings up significantly.

I have numbered each selection to show how the lines are permed:
Possible winning £1 lines:

A: 1/3/5/7 £530.40
B: 1/3/5/8 £884.00
C: 1/3/6/7 £1734.00
D: 1/3/6/8 £2890.00
E: 1/4/5/7 £46.80
F: 1/4/5/8 £78.00
G: 1/4/6/7 £153.00
H: 1/4/6/8 £255.00
I: 2/3/5/7 £631.18
J: 2/3/5/8 £1051.96
K: 2/3/6/7 £2063.46
L: 2/3/6/8 £3439.10
M: 2/4/5/7 £55.69
N: 2/4/5/8 £92.82
O: 2/4/6/7 £182.07
P: 2/4/6/8 £303.45
So for a £16 stake you could win £46.80 if the 1 line with the lowest odds came in, and if all selections came in you would win the all lines combined which is a pretty sweet £14390.93

If anybody fancies having a go at their own why not stick your selections in here and we can see how we go on over the rest of the season? Doesn't have to be from the same divisions, or even the same sport! It's just a great way to keep interested in the sports we love over the long term. :yes:
Last edited by gripperrocks on Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

t1mmy
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Postby t1mmy » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:53 am

Grip - as a Bolton fan I hope you are right with your prediction :win:

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Postby gripperrocks » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:57 am

Jeez, so do I mate. :hope:

Picked one out similar about 10 games in and picked Bolton/Blackburn for promotion. Bolton were 7/1 at the time. It's the only line that looks at this moment in time like it will let me down :lose:

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Postby gripperrocks » Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:40 am

Quick Transfer Window round up for my selected teams(all info taken from BBC Sport/Transfermarkt):

ASTON VILLA:

Ins: Yacouba Sylla [£2m from Clermont Foot]

Outs: Stephen Warnock [free to Leeds]

WIGAN
Ins: Joel Robles [loan from Atletico Madrid], Roger Espinoza [free from Sporting Kansas City], Angelo Henriquez [loan from Manchester United] , Paul Scharner [loan from Hamburg]

Outs: Rob Kiernan [loan to Brentford] , Mauro Boselli [loan to Palermo]

BOLTON
Ins: Craig Davies [undisclosed from Barnsley], Craig Dawson [loan from West Brom], Jan Gregus [loan from Banik Ostrava], Cian Bolger [undisclosed from Leicester], Steve de Ridder [loan from Southampton], Medo Kamara [undisclosed from Partizan Belgrade]

Outs: Martin Petrov [free to Espanyol]

HULL
Ins: David Meyler [undisclosed from Sunderland], Robbie Brady [undisclosed from Manchester United], David Stockdale [loan from Fulham], Mohamed Nagy [loan from Al-Ahly], Ahmed Fathi [loan from Al-Ahly], Ahmed Elmohamady [loan from Sunderland]

Outs: Aaron Mclean [loan to Ipswich], Liam Cooper [undisclosed to Chesterfield]

Sheffield United:

Ins:Jonathan Forte[Southampton,free transfer],Barry Robson [Vancouver,free transfer],Danny Higginbotham[Stoke City,free transfer],Jamie Murphy,Motherwell FC,Undisclosed]

Outs:David McAllister[Shrewsbury,undisclosed],Nick Blackman[Reading,undisclosed],Danny Philliskirk[released]

Coventry:

Ins:Leon Clarke[Charlton,free transfer],Blair Adams[Sunderland,undisclosed]

Outs:Cody McDonald[Gillingham, free transfer],Roy O'Donovan[Northampton,free transfer],Chris Hussey[Wimbledon,free transfer],Kevin Kilbane[retired]

Cheltenham:

Ins:Michael Hector[Reading,free transfer],Paul Benson[Swindon,free transfer],Jason Taylor[Rotherham,free transfer]

Fleetwood:

Ins:Jamille Matt[Kidderminster,£211.200],Paul McKenna[Hull,free transfer],David Lucas[Birmingham,free transfer]Gareth Evans[Rotherham,free transfer],Mozzi Gyorio[Free Agent]

Outs: Steve McNulty[Luton,free transfer],Danny Devine[Inverness Cal.,free transfer],Branco[Floriana,Undisclosed],Lee Fowler[Doncaster,Undisclosed]

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Postby gripperrocks » Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:49 am

Well, my two selections from league one went head to head last night and I probably got the best possible result due to Coventry being the lower placed of the two and having played more games than Sheff Utd.

Leon Clarke got both goals for Coventry in a 1-2 win and if he continues to score goals in the way he is now then Coventry look good for one of those playoff spots. They are now best priced 5.50 for promotion.

Sheff Utd aren't on the greatest run of form right now, having not won in 5 league games, but are still only 8 points off the top spot so all to play for. They can be got at 3.0 for promotion this morning.

Fixtures for my other selections this weekend:

Everton V Aston Villa
Wigan V Southampton
Millwall V Hull
Watford V Bolton
Cheltenham V Torquay
Fleetwood V Bradford

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Postby gripperrocks » Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:17 am

Not good news for Coventry as they have their accounts frozen for non-payment of rent on the stadium. On top of Mark Robins leaving for Huddersfield. Bugger. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/21475743

Bolton finally won a game last week, can they make it 2 on the bounce to try and instill yet more false hope?! :P

League fixtures this weekend:

Hull V Charlton
Nottm Forest V Bolton
Bury V Coventry
Sheff Utd V Colchester
Cheltenham V Aldershot
Fleetwood V Burton Albion

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Postby gripperrocks » Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:51 am

Just thought I'd update this one as we draw closer to the end of the season:

Villa: Starting to pick up a few results just at the right time (for them, not me).

Fixtures: Man Utd (A), Sunderland (H), Norwich (A), Chelsea (H), Wigan (A)

Chances: Fair to middling.

Wigan: Games in hand but a cup final for a distraction.

Fixtures: Man City (H), West Ham (A), Spurs (H), West Brom (A), Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H)

Chances:
Fair to middling

Bolton: On a great run but the last 4 matches are difficult.

Fixtures: Leicester (A), Middlesbrough (H), Cardiff (A), Blackpool (A)

Chances:
Playoff squeak.

Hull: Have been really solid all year and expect them to finish the job.

Fixtures: Wolves (A), Bristol City (H), Barnsley (H) Cardiff (A)

Chances: Very good.

Sheffield United: First win in a while after the sacking of Danny Wilson. Have a 6 point buffer on 7th place and games in hand.

Fixtures: Brentford (H), Portsmouth (A), Crewe (A), Preston (H)

Chances: Playoffs achievable, Automatic squeak.

Coventry: Think I jinxed them! Lost their manager, evicted from the offices at the Ricoh then confirmed administration and got a 10 point deduction.

Fixtures: Don't care.

Chances: Game Over.

Cheltenham: Looked good but have faltered in recent weeks.

Fixtures: Exeter (H), Bradford (A)

Chances: Guaranteed playoffs, Automatic squeak.

Fleetwood: As Cheltenham, seem to have struggled in recent weeks. Need a minor miracle to get playoffs.

Fixtures: Chesterfield (H), Wimbledon (A)

Chances: Slim to none.

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Postby gripperrocks » Fri May 03, 2013 12:02 pm

Decided to lay Cheltenham for stake back before last nights game. Looks wise so far. Gonna do the same with Sheff Utd tonight as I have them in more than one acca. :yes:

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