UK General Election 2015 - Discussion

nors
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UK General Election 2015 - Discussion

Postby nors » Tue Feb 03, 2015 8:46 am

This is such a good post by uls2000 and with the General Election expected to be a huge betting event , have moved this post to its own discussion thread.

A little over three months to the UK General Election, one commonly being previewed as the most unpredictable ever, so I think it's worth resurrecting this thread and looking for some value amongst all this uncertainty.

What does look increasingly likely, with both Labour and Conservative bouncing around the 30-35% range in opinion polls, is that there will be no overall majority. This was being priced at around evens last Summer but is now around 1/4. What I am looking at for some value are the Next Government Odds:

Conservative Majority 4/1
Labour Minority 9/2
Conservative Minority 5/1
Conservative/Lib Dem Coalition 9/2
Labour/Lib Dem Coalition 13/2
Labour Majority 8/1
Labour/SNP Coalition 8/1
Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition 16/1
Conservative/UKIP Coalition 25/1
Labour/Lib Dem/Green Coalition 50/1
Conservative/Labour Coalition 50/1
(Best odds from Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)

Effectively I think only the Lib Dems and SNP will have enough seats to be in a position to give either Con or Lab a coalition majority- UKIP, Plaid and Green might only have 1-3 seats each and I don't think any of the Northern Irish parties could take full coalition partner status on what would only be around 0.05% of the UK-wide vote.
Of the Lib Dems and SNP, the Scottish Nationalists have ruled out forming a full coalition, but might have a loose "understanding" to support Labour (as far as I understand the betting rules, no cabinet seats for any junior party means no coalition). I think Lib Dems would rather regain some credibility in opposition rather than switching sides directly and forming a coalition with Labour. Remaining in a Conservative-led coalition would probably appeal to the Lib Dems, but there'll be plenty of Conservatives wanting to push them out of coalition, and especially if they see the vote collapse into single % figures that the polls suggest.

Betting on both a Conservative minority and Labour minority works out at close to 12/5 which I like.

Also, I have had a little 50/1 bet on a Conservative/ Labour grand coalition. Both the two main parties might be squeezed so much down to the 270/280 seat level- a long way short of the c.320 votes that big Commons bills like the budget would need to go through- and if they were restricted to those kind of seat numbers then the only two-party mathematical majority could be from the two biggest parties, as has happened in two of the last three German elections. Unlikely, but worth a 50/1 nibble I think.

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Postby Each-Way Queen » Wed May 06, 2015 12:58 pm

Anyone into General Election betting? Not sure if it's worth putting something down. Seems political betting isn't that popular..?

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Postby bobslay13 » Wed May 06, 2015 2:22 pm

I might have a dabble for the first time. I think a Labour/SNP Coalition is a little more likely than the 14/1 available on the 'Next Government' market.

Betfair are predicting 263 seats for Labour and 54 for SNP, to have a majority government those two combined need to exceed 325 (exactly half of the 650 seats in Parliament). At the current forecast those two combined would have 317 seats. The SNP can only find another 5 more seats as Scotland has 59 in total but if they did win every seat in Scotland that would need just 4 more seats to go in Labour's favour to land a Labour/SNP Coalition. Others might be more informed than myself but I think 14/1 is a big price on this. Nicola Sturgeon seems like she would accept a coalition with Labour and whilst Ed Miliband has skated around the subject I think he would rather go with the SNP than some of the other parties.

Betfair have correctly predicted the last UK and US elections and they think a Labour Minority government is the most likely outcome at 15/8 but that looks very short to me.

Does anyone have any views or insights on this? Conservatives seem to have the momentum at the minute but we all know that could well just be a poor representation from the polls and many voters aren't that outspoken about their views. Similar to Scottish Referendum last year a lot of people thought the country would Vote Yes but that never happened. The Yes vote looked to have momentum at the right time but it didn't swing enough and No voters were quite quiet on their views.

I think I'll be having a small punt on that 14/1 on a Labour/SNP coalition unless anyone can advise me otherwise?
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Postby UnderdogsLover » Thu May 07, 2015 5:56 am

Today the big day. :cool:

Just anyone know :?
How it could be another Election end of the year?
Also what odds will that be?
Heard them talking about, that could happen?

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Postby nors » Thu May 07, 2015 7:01 am

I will be glad when it is over and nothing is decided. They have all been too scared to say anything of note.

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Postby Each-Way Queen » Thu May 07, 2015 8:25 am

I might have a dabble for the first time. I think a Labour/SNP Coalition is a little more likely than the 14/1 available on the 'Next Government' market.

target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/6/L3/D/words'>Betfair> are predicting 263 seats for Labour and 54 for SNP, to have a majority government those two combined need to exceed 325 (exactly half of the 650 seats in Parliament). At the current forecast those two combined would have 317 seats. The SNP can only find another 5 more seats as Scotland has 59 in total but if they did win every seat in Scotland that would need just 4 more seats to go in Labour's favour to land a Labour/SNP Coalition. Others might be more informed than myself but I think 14/1 is a big price on this. Nicola Sturgeon seems like she would accept a coalition with Labour and whilst Ed Miliband has skated around the subject I think he would rather go with the SNP than some of the other parties.

target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/6/L3/D/words'>Betfair> have correctly predicted the last UK and US elections and they think a Labour Minority government is the most likely outcome at 15/8 but that looks very short to me.

Does anyone have any views or insights on this? Conservatives seem to have the momentum at the minute but we all know that could well just be a poor representation from the polls and many voters aren't that outspoken about their views. Similar to Scottish Referendum last year a lot of people thought the country would Vote Yes but that never happened. The Yes vote looked to have momentum at the right time but it didn't swing enough and No voters were quite quiet on their views.

I think I'll be having a small punt on that 14/1 on a Labour/SNP coalition unless anyone can advise me otherwise?
Thanks for this, given me some food for thought. I may join you in your punt on Labour/SNP (although this doesn't necessarily reflect my own personal preferred outcome lol).

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Thu May 07, 2015 8:44 am

nors
I will be glad when it is over and nothing is decided. They have all been too scared to say anything of note.
:yes: Quite agree 1: I will be glad when it is over..
2: They have all been too scared to say anything of note..

Why am thinking they could be another Election end of year.
Why vote for them :? when they have been to scared to say anything to note.
Why 2? as make it difficult for us floating voters to decide..

Why thinking they could be another election!! end of the year.
As we don t trust the main parties..

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Postby The Shark » Thu May 07, 2015 9:54 am

Are there any really good bets out there?

According to the current odds on the number of seats, the makeup would be something like

287 Conservative
265 Labour
49 SNP
25 Lib Dem
3 Plaid Cymru
2 UKIP
1 Green

There is no betting I can find on the Northern Irish seats and surprisingly hasn't been much coverage but I think they will be critical. It looks like they will go this way

9 DUP
5 Sinn Fein
3 SDLP
1 Other

Pundits keep talking about needing 326 for a majority of the 650 seats but that isn't quite right as the 5 Sinn Fein have never voted and that is unlikely to change as it is unlikely they will want to swear allegiance to the Queen. So the magic figure is actually 323

So looking back at the figures above there is unlikely to be any coalition. 2 parties just can't reach that number. Even if Labour +SNP do a bit better, Labour have ruled out a coalition.

There has been a lot of support in the odds 6/1 mid April odd down to 9/4 odd now for a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition. As they approach the 312-14 mark between them then that becomes a realistic possibility as the 9 DUP are likely to support a Con/Lib Dem queens speech as they want a referendum on Europe. As would probably the 2 UKIP.

However what I think is a better bet is a Conservative minority. A slightly watered down Queens speech to that which they would have with a majority might be enough to get the support of Lib Dems, DUP and UKIP which means that around 287 might be enough + 36 others to reach 323. As long as they include a european referendum and do enough in that speech to get the Lib Dem support (who will try and work with the party with the most seats) then they should get through. There really isn't that much for the Conservatives to gain by making a formal coalition AND Lib Dems seem to have drawn so many red lines that it will be hard to do. So 13/2 Skybet for a Conservative Minority looks a great bet to me.

If Conservatives are just 1 or 2 seats short of that 287 though and can't get enough support from the others that gives Labour the chance to form a government with say their


267 + 49 SNP + 3 SDLP + 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 Green. Maybe Lib Dem too if Conservatives upset them enough in their negotiations.

Again, no chance of a coalition. So Labour minority at 2/1 With Ladbrokes looks the bet here.

Personally I feel that Conservatives + Lib Dems will do better than the polls and the bookies think so 13/2 Con minority is the bet for me but 2/1 Lab minority would be a good cover bet as really can't see why a coalition would be needed.

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Postby fairfranco » Fri May 08, 2015 8:53 am

well that didn't come out as expected, Conservatives surprise people and smash it while Labour get considerably less than expected particularly with their wipe out in Scotland!

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Postby botev1921 » Fri May 08, 2015 9:20 am

Now that sends a very odd message to Europe. Many people claim to be unhappy and obviously everyone was unhappy because of the Lib Dems, who are on the verge of disappearing as a party.

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Postby nors » Fri May 08, 2015 10:47 am

The Broadcasters and Pollsters need an urgent post mortem, like Sky Sports the level of expertise pre election/match was abysmal, they got nothing right. They both need root and branch reform. I have been banging on about how poor MOTD analysis is, it seems that politics reporting is in exactly the same boat.

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Postby shedrule1983 » Fri May 08, 2015 11:20 am

56 out of 59 seats :win: :win: :win: :win: :win: :win:

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