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by nors
Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:10 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Expected Goals - XG
Replies: 136
Views: 7846

Re: Expected Goals - XG

Well, apart from the Middlesbrough game the weekend bets/trades worked out well. Tonight we have Everton v Arsenal with the odds as follows. Everton 3.9 25.64% Arsenal 2.06 48.54% Draw 3.8 26.31% The bookmaker's percentage taking all the best prices adds up to 100.50%. We see low percentage over rou...
by nors
Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:38 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Expected Goals - XG
Replies: 136
Views: 7846

Re: Expected Goals - XG

Middlesbrough has the best xG record at home for not allowing teams chances, Swansea retain the ball away and are likely to keep things tight in the 1st half. 0-0 at HT is 2.9. Luton is my best bet of the weekend in the championship and it is for them not to lose. Their xG stats away from home are ...
by nors
Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs
Replies: 5
Views: 93

Re: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs

Last night only 1 booking across the two games of Man Utd v Arsenal and Tottenham v Brentford I suspect many could take a guess at which player the yellow was given to. Do evening matches result in more bookings? Do live televised matches result in more bookings with both the refs and the players &q...
by nors
Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:32 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs
Replies: 5
Views: 93

Re: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs

Midweek matches saw many of the refs going card happy.

Lee v Pal 8 Yellows
Eve v Liv 7 Yellows
Wat v Che 7 Yellows
Wol v Burn 5 Yellows
Sou v Leic 4 Yellows
by nors
Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:53 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs
Replies: 5
Views: 93

Re: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs

The Newcastle v Norwich match saw an early sending off (9th minute), this alerted the players to better behaviour as there were no more cards in the remaining 81 minutes + injury time. I do wonder what the stats show when there is an early sending off. Wolves v Burnley looks like the match that coul...
by nors
Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs
Replies: 5
Views: 93

Re: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs

You can see the pressure Manchester United have been under with 31 yellows and a couple of reds. Brighton, I was a bit surprised about their number of cards (33) but with Duffy and Dunk there is always a risk Newcastle seem a bit slow to the ball thus resulting in lots of yellows. Liverpool's contro...
by nors
Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: EPL Bookings & Sending Offs
Replies: 5
Views: 93

EPL Bookings & Sending Offs

I wondered whether anyone specifically bets on bookings/sending offs either singly or as part of request bets/build a bet.? Many of the bookies offer some sort of yellow/red card betting + the spread betting companies also have these markets. We have been keeping stats on the yellow cards this seaso...
by nors
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:47 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Expected Goals - XG
Replies: 136
Views: 7846

Re: Expected Goals - XG

Birmingham scored in the 81st minute and Blackpool can count themselves unlucky not to come away with at least a point, although the xG ended up 1.04 v 0.44, I traded out of the lay at HT so was in profit on the game. Middlesborough got their first win under Wilder although I left that game alone as...
by nors
Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:02 am
Forum: Horse Racing
Topic: Horse Racing Discussion for November
Replies: 50
Views: 3236

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for November

Would be interested in Paul Nicholls horses AWAY from Newbury, not huge prices but Newcastle is not a regular track for Nicholls, Donny is more so and has a decent record. The races at Newbury are more competitive, so more each way chances there than straight wins. 12.55 Newc Mr Glass 4/5 2.18 Donc ...
by nors
Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:07 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Expected Goals - XG
Replies: 136
Views: 7846

Re: Expected Goals - XG

Only one game stands out for me on xG and the odds and that is Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham are underpriced at 2.2 and Blackpool is overpriced at 3.75. The Blues neither create much or concede many chances at St Andrew's, they are functional at best, add in suspensions and injuries and their sq...
by nors
Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Expected Goals - XG
Replies: 136
Views: 7846

Re: Expected Goals - XG

Excellent stuff Jamie, from your xG ratings I would have thought that you concurred that Coventry was a tad underpriced against Birmingham.

Can you expand on your ratings so members can fully understand

From a betting point of view, how have you got on this season so far.
by nors
Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:37 pm
Forum: Football Betting
Topic: Expected Goals - XG
Replies: 136
Views: 7846

Re: Expected Goals - XG

An interesting game tonight between Coventry and Birmingham. Just based on xG there is very little difference between Coventry at home and Birmingham away from home. Therefore Birmingham who are a best price 4.2 look value, Coventry are 2.1 and I would lay them. Add in that it is a derby and that bo...