Trainers to follow in January (NH)

Updated: 5055 Horse Racing

This is the seventh year of the blog and after winning years 2013 +£54.99 LSP 2014 +£45.67 LSP 2015 +£192.53 LSP, 2016 on +£198.89 LSP the last two years have both been losers, 2017 (£123.20) and 2018 (£186.81). I think

Trainers to follow in January (NH)
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

January Trainers (NH)

This is the seventh year of the blog and after winning years  2013 +£54.99 LSP 2014 +£45.67 LSP 2015 +£192.53 LSP, 2016 on +£198.89 LSP the last two years have both been losers, 2017 (£123.20) and 2018 (£186.81).  I think this year will determine weather this is still a viable way to make the game pay, either way we'll have some fun on the way and uncover some training gems.  I'll probably try and be more selective this year typically looking for trainers with consistent LSP and 20% strikes rates over the past 4-5 years, there will be some exceptions but the stats will ultimately make the decisions for us.

 

NH Trainers

NICKY HENDERSON (All)

A regular in the January blog and the figures below are a typical example of what we are looking for, these stats are really strong with only the LSP in 2015 falling outside our inclusion guidelines.

  • 2014     10/39     29%     +£20.53
  • 2015     15/56     27%     (£  9.55)
  • 2016      9/38      24%     +£12.58
  • 2017      20/52    38%     +£12.65
  • 2018      20/59    34%     +£ 7.38

Last year our own figures showed a double figure profit using early prices, try and get best odds guaranteed (BOG) when you can it will make a big diffence at the end of the year profits.

Henderson comes into the month with 3 winners from his last 6 NH runners and a winner on the flat.

 

SUE SMITH (All)

 

Another trainer back from last January, she gave us a smaller profit the Henderson but profit all the same.

 

  • 2014 10/40 25% +£27.28
  • 2015 8/32 25% +£31.25
  • 2016 4/22 18% +£ 7.00
  • 2017 7/26 27% +£11.00
  • 2018 9/39 23%  +£0.70

Again only the 2016 stike rate falls outside the guidelines so she's a must for inclusion.  Has no real form coming into the month but that's not unusual for her in December.

 

 

NICK WILLIAMS (All)

 

Devon trainer who's flagship horse has been Tea for Two in recent years, he has another stable star in Lizzie Kelly as his main jockey.  A new addition to the January blog largely due to the following figures.

  • 2015     3/20     15%    (£ 7.25)
  • 2016     0/10      0%     (£10.00)
  • 2017     5/20     25%    +£16.13
  • 2018     5/20     25%    +£28.50

Not as strong as the previous trainers but I always put more value on the last two years figures and it's for that reason we include him.  Comes into the month on the back of an 8/1 class 2 handicap winner at Kempton.

 

LUCINDA RUSSELL (Non Chase)

 

Scottish trainer came to prominence with recent Grand National winner One For Arthur, ironically we're not including her chase runners this month as she's 3/55 with those runners over the past three January's.

  • 2015     4/43     9%     (£ 1.50)
  • 2016     2/26     8%     (£ 0.00)
  • 2017     4/24    17%    +£32.50
  • 2018     7/34    21%    +£13.53

Again it's the recent figures that seel her inclusion but even with a shoddy strike rate the LSL was tiny in 2015 and 2016, will also give some interest north of the border.

 

 

JOHN QUINN (Non Chase)

 

North Yorkshire trainer and another returnee from last January, we just had his hurdlers last time and drew level, his bumper runners usually go well so we'll stick them in as well.

 

  • 2015     2/11     18%     +£0.50
  • 2016     2/5       40%     +£2.25
  • 2017     3/5       60%     +£8.38
  • 2018     2/7       29%     (£2.58)

 

As I said our own figures were almost level last year and would have shown profit if we'd included his bumper horses.  Interestingly he's only had two Chase winners since October 2009 albeit not from too many runners.

 

 

SANDY THOMPSON (All)

 

Last NH trainer for the month and another back from last January, similar to Quinn inthat she gave us a level month.

 

  • 2014 1/3 33% +£ 0.75
  • 2015 1/11 9% (£ 7.50)
  • 2016 4/11 36% +£ 5.00
  • 2017 4/11 36% +£66.83
  • 2018 2/15 13% (£4.75)

Interesting in that although she didn't meet any of the criteria we aim for last year she still caused no damage, we'll include again especially as she comes into the month on the back of two Kelso winners.

 

Thats all for this section, we could have included Mullins bumpers in Ireland but his string look poor in that sphere, he's had no bumpers winners in December which is usually a strong month for him.

 

As always any questions, comments, observations please leave below, the AW section will be up shortly.  Results will be shown below.

 

 

 

Results

1st - Brilliant start with winners for Henderson (x2), Quinn and Smith.     4/13     +£14.50

2nd - From one extreme to the other, no winners, all yestersday good work for nothing.     0/15     (£15.00)

3rd - Blank again.     0/3     (£3.00)

4th - Henderson double, small profit.     2/4     +£0.02

5th - Frustrating day that started with a 6/1 winner then 2nd's and 3rd's galore at decent prices.     1/13     (£6.00)

6th - Just two runners in the same race today but one won at 9/4 so small win.     1/2     +£1.25

7th - Last race winner gave us respectability.     1/5     (£2.90) 

8th - Last race wiinner gave us small profit.     1/8      +£2.20

9th - Frustrating day, our first four runners finished second, we had to wait till the last race again but unfortunately for me i missed it!  Think the price was bigger in the morning but i'll use SP for the figures.     1/8      (£4.50)

10th - Another frustrating one with placed horses at 8's 9/2 and 10's, a winner for Smith.  Plenty are running well I think it's only a matter of time before we have a big day.          1/6     (£3.25)     

11th - Good start with a Smith winner at 11/2 that we were on at 12's, then just a short one for Crisford at 9/4 beating the SP again.     2/12     +£3.50

12th - Four winners but the biggest was 11/4, tiny loss.     4/12     (£0.30)

13th - First runner of the day beaten a short head at 84/1 on exchange!     1/5     (£1.25)

14th - Two winners and two seconds from five runners.     2/5     +£3.00

15th - Watson winner, small profit.     1/3     +£0.75

16th - This month gets ever more frustrating, no winners today but four seconds at 18's 11/2 9/2 and 11/4 one of which would have been 1/100 in running.

          0/11     (£11.00)

17th - At last we got a couple over the line, Smith was the hero with a 14/1 winner.     3/9     +£12.60

18th - Another superb day ending with a Williams 14/1 winner.     4/9     +£19.25

19th - Another good day with 6 winners, unfortunately 5 were 5/4 or shorter, we had a second and third in a race late that looked a certian win that would have gave us profit on the day but we can't moan, we've had a good week.     

         6/20     (£1.72)

20th - Quiet Sunday, one winner, small profit.     1/5     (£1.00)

21st - Poor day just two Henderson favs.     2/9     (£5.30)

22nd - Back in the minuses with a blank day.     0/10     (£10.00)

23rd - Just AW today, small loss.     1/7     (£3.25)

24th - Quiet day, no winners.     0/4     (£4.00)

25th - Smith started the day with a winner and Futado finished the day with an 11/1 winner, Watson had a shorty in between.     3/9     +£11.38

26th - Just winners for Williams and Henderson, gave most of yesterdays profit back.     2/17     (£7.00)

27th - Fantastic day with all 3 runners winning, Smith continued her great run, plenty of BOG gains to boot.     3/3     +£18.06

28th - Four Henderson winners but still couldn't make a profit.     4/12     (£1.64)

29th - Just what we didnt want a blank day.     0/11     (£11.00)

30th - Sigh another blank day, the AW is killing us.     0/3     (£3.00)

31st - And again     0/4     (£4.00)

Monthly Total

51/257    20%     (£12.60)

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