Premier League Odds and Betting Analysis

The betting odds we take influence the profits we make during our betting lives. Here we analyse historical EPL football match odds that we hope will help with future betting decision making. You can view all the Premier League odds each week of the season

Premier League Odds and Betting Analysis

EPL Betting Odds

Check the EPL historical betting odds

Is there any betting value in promoted sides?

Do mid-table sides punch above their weight?  

Each week we will publish the EPL odds after each game, these odds will be the best available at kick-off (BOKO). 

We will see which sides outperformed their price and which team did not justify their short odds. 

As the season progresses this should give readers an insight via the odds of the bookmakers thinking on particular teams.

We then need to decide which sides are overpriced and underpriced. 

Tips can then be placed in the OLBG football tipping competitions, or bets placed with the leading online bookmakers.

At the end of week 19 there have been the following outcomes:

  • Home 41%
  • Draws 27%
  • Aways 32%

The second half of the season results feature on the next blog here.



EPL Week 19

7 games took place with Newcastle holding Man Utd at St James Park at odds of 4.8, the Ralf Rangnick honeymoon seems to be over

Saints turning over West Ham at the London Stadium at 4.1 was notable as the Hammers have been in good form, again players missing for the home side seems to have been the difference. 

  • Home 3
  • Draws 1
  • Away 3
Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa Chelsea 1-3 5.5 3.91 1.73
Brighton Brentford 2-0 1.99 3.45 4.5
Manch City Leicester 6-3 1.14 11 21
Newcastle Manch Utd 1-1 6.55 4.8 1.53
Norwich Arsenal 0-5 7 4.65 1.53
Tottenham Crystal Palace 3-0 1.74 3.92 5.4
West Ham Southampton 2-3 1.98 3.75 4.1

EPL Week 18

Two draws and two away wins in a much-reduced fixture list due to the pandemic.

The Tottenham v Liverpool draw was a surprise and quite generous odds,

The bookies obviously expected Liverpool to roll over Spurs, but the visitors had a couple of players out and this seemed to motivate the home side. 

Arsenal continued their improvement and are slowly moving up the table.

  • Home 0
  • Draws 2
  • Away 2


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Leeds Arsenal 1-4 6.4 4.65 1.62
Newcastle Manch City 0-4 26 10.5 1.15
Tottenham Liverpool 2-2 5.13 4.4 1.72
Wolves Chelsea 0-0 6 3.54 1.8

EPL Week 17

A couple of shocks in a reduced fixture list with Covid 19 forcing postponements.

Everton who had been in poor form held Chelsea to a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge, those who fancied Thomas Tuchels side to win the EPL must be getting nervous, the Blues are now the biggest price they have been at 12/1. 

Wolves beat Brighton at the Amex at the generous odds of just under 4/1, Brighton cannot put the ball in the net and are in need of a striker, they have only scored 14 times this season. 

  • Homes 3
  • Aways 2
  • Draws 2


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal West Ham 2-0 2.3 3.65 3.75
Brighton Wolves 0-1 2.16 3.25 4.65
Norwich Aston Villa 0-2 3.82 3.43 2.15
Crystal Palace Southampton 2-2 2.25 3.54 4.15
Chelsea Everton 1-1 1.22 7 20
Liverpool Newcastle 3-1 1.12 12.5 31
Manch City Leeds 7-0 1.18 10 20

EPL Week 16

A weekend of penalties many of them dubious.  

There were no surprises with only West Ham of the favourites not winning.  

  • Home: 7
  • Draw: 1
  • Away: 1


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Southampton 3-0 1.81 4.1 4.8
Brentford Watford 2-1 2.63 3.45 3.2
Brighton Tottenham
Burnley West Ham 0-0 3.58 3.56 2.2
Chelsea Leeds 3-2 1.26 6.75 13
Crystal Palace Everton 3-1 2.29 3.25 3.8
Leicester Newcastle 4-0 1.78 4.12 5.06
Liverpool Aston Villa 1-0 1.27 7 13
Manch City Wolves 1-0 1.18 8.5 21
Norwich Manch Utd 0-1 7.6 5.11 1.45

EPL Week 15

West Ham beating Chelsea at 5.0 and Everton beating Arsenal at 3.7 were the two biggest surprises this week. 

West Ham has consistently punched above their odds especially at home, they should be noted for the rest of the season.  

Arsenal losing to Everton was a shock to the bookies but Everton needed to get a result after 8 games without a win. 


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa Leicester 2-1 2.4 3.5 3.45
Everton Arsenal 2-1 3.7 3.42 2.31
Leeds Brentford 2-2 1.86 3.64 4.94
Manch Utd Crystal Palace 1-0 1.54 4.6 7
Newcastle Burnley 1-0 2.46 3.5 3.25
Southampton Brighton 1-1 2.68 3.24 3.35
Tottenham Norwich 3-0 1.48 4.7 8
Watford Manch City 1-3 16 8 1.23
West Ham Chelsea 3-2 5 3.75 1.83
Wolves Liverpool 0-1 9.6 5.25 1.43

EPL Week 14

Nothing to get excited about this weekend, with the draws the biggest priced winners. 


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa Manch City 1-2 8 4.8 1.48
Everton Liverpool 1-4 9.13 5.4 1.4
Leeds Crystal Palace 1-0 2.36 3.4 3.5
Watford Chelsea 1-2 11.04 5.5 1.35
West Ham Brighton 1-1 2.05 3.65 4.33
Wolves Burnley 0-0 2.05 3.43 4.7
Manch Utd Arsenal 3-2 2.12 3.76 3.6
Newcastle Norwich 1-1 2.14 3.6 3.9
Southampton Leicester 2-2 2.42 3.57 3.14
Tottenham Brentford 2-0 1.69 3.98 5.8

EPL Week 13

Manchester United under caretaker manager Michael Carrick battled to a 1-1 draw at Chelsea (4.35) and gave us the biggest winning odds of the weekend. 

Wolves not beating Norwich could be classed as a bit of a shock with Wolves easily the shortest-priced away team that weekend. 

Burnley v Tottenham was called off due to snow. 

  • Home 5
  • Draws 3
  • Away 1


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Newcastle 2-0 1.54 4.65 6.75
Brentford Everton 1-0 2.28 3.35 3.6
Brighton Leeds 0-0 2.25 3.4 3.7
Burnley Tottenham
Chelsea Manch Utd 1-1 1.58 4.35 6.75
Crystal Palace Aston Villa 1-2 2.38 3.42 3.43
Leicester Watford 4-2 1.76 4.05 5.45
Liverpool Southampton 4-0 1.26 6.75 13
Manch City West Ham 2-1 1.3 6.5 11.5
Norwich Wolves 0-0 3.75 3.42 2.24

EPL Week 12

Watford at 7.0 (6/1) beating Manchester United was the biggest shock of the weekend. 

The loss was the end for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer who was sacked the following day. 

New managers Conte, Gerrard and Smith all recorded home wins. 

Two 3-3 draws would have been a nice correct score double had anyone found them. 

  • Home 7
  • Draws 2
  • Away 1


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa Brighton 2-0 2.57 3.37 3.15
Burnley Crystal Palace 3-3 2.94 3.25 2.74
Leicester Chelsea 0-3 5.06 3.86 1.8
Liverpool Arsenal 4-0 1.55 4.75 6.4
Manch City Everton 3-0 1.21 7.5 17
Newcastle Brentford 3-3 2.6 3.45 3.02
Norwich Southampton 2-1 3.68 3.53 2.19
Tottenham Leeds 2-1 1.65 4.3 6.01
Watford Manch Utd 4-1 7 4.8 1.5
Wolves West Ham 1-0 3.25 3.38 2.46

EPL Week 11

The biggest priced winning home team this weekend was West Ham at 4.75, 

You can see that Manchester United were a bigger price home team to beat Manchester City (They didn't), it shows how far United have fallen this season. 

Burnley scoring late to secure a draw at Stamford Bridge was available at 5/1 

Norwich getting their first win of the season was easily the biggest priced away win.  

Had you backed the Burnley draw and the wins for West Ham and Norwich a £1 treble would have returned you just under £170!!

Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Watford 1-0 1.46 4.9 8
Brentford Norwich 1-2 1.68 4.2 5.85
Brighton Newcastle 1-1 1.63 4.2 6.25
Chelsea Burnley 1-1 1.29 6.1 13.05
Crystal Palace Wolves 2-0 2.4 3.2 3.6
Everton Tottenham 0-0 3.5 3.35 2.31
Leeds Leicester 1-1 2.75 3.5 2.76
Manch Utd Manch City 0-2 5 4.2 1.75
Southampton Aston Villa 1-0 2.17 3.7 3.7
West Ham Liverpool 3-2 4.75 4.4 1.77

EPL Week 10

Two big surprises this weekend with Crystal Palace beating Manchester City 2-0 (21/1) at the Etihad, and Brighton securing a 2-2 draw at Anfield, (13/2). 

Both results were worthy of plenty of praise + the odds if you took them returned real value. 

It seems that Crystal Palace regularly come up with these bookie bashing results, had you backed them in every game for the last 8 seasons you would be sitting on an average return of 45.85 per season. 

Last season they beat Manchester United at Old Trafford at odds of  17/2

After 7 away wins this weekend the percentage of away wins after 100 games is greater than home wins. 

Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa West Ham 1-4 3.1 3.6 2.52
Burnley Brentford 3-1 2.74 3.34 3
Leicester Arsenal 0-2 2.63 3.53 2.88
Liverpool Brighton 2-2 1.3 6.75 12
Manch City Crystal Palace 0-2 1.16 9.25 22
Newcastle Chelsea 0-3 8.5 4.8 1.46
Norwich Leeds 1-2 3.7 3.75 2.09
Tottenham Manch Utd 0-3 3.2 3.74 2.3
Watford Southampton 0-1 3.45 3.54 2.33
Wolves Everton 2-1 2.3 3.22 3.8

EPL Week 9

The shock away win of Watford at Everton was not such a shock to shrewd odds compilers, the hornets were only a best priced 4/1 to beat the Merseyside club at Goodison Park. 

I suspect many of us would have predicted much bigger odds for Claudio Ranieri's side after their 5-0 defeat the previous week to Liverpool. 

It does go to show that you need to look deeply at the odds to try and understand the bookmaker's opinion on a particular game. 

40 goals being scored in week 10 was easily the biggest total this season. 

  • Home 3
  • Draws 3
  • Away 4


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Aston Villa 3-1 2.04 3.75 4.05
Brentford Leicester 1-2 2.86 3.56 2.7
Brighton Manch City 1-4 9 4.95 1.44
Chelsea Norwich 7-0 1.24 7 17
Crystal Palace Newcastle 1-1 2 3.68 4.4
Everton Watford 2-5 1.84 3.76 5
Leeds Wolves 1-1 2.64 3.44 3.1
Manch Utd Liverpool 0-5 3.09 3.66 2.43
Southampton Burnley 2-2 2.09 3.8 4.1
West Ham Tottenham 1-0 2.34 3.5 3.29

EPL Week 8

No huge surprises this week with the standout odds Wolves (4.0) and Leicester (3.9 ) & Arsenal getting away with a draw at the Emirates against Palace at 4.17. 

Of the 10 games, there were 6 winning favs, Chelsea, West Ham, Man City, Tottenham, Southampton, and Liverpool. 

Of the 10 games, there were 2 winning underdogs Wolves at 4.0 and Leicester at 3.9.

Of the 10 games, there were 2 winning draws, the aforementioned Arsenal v Crystal Palace and Norwich v Brighton. 

  • Home 3
  • Draws 2
  • Away 5


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Crystal Palace 2-2 1.65 4.17 6.05
Aston Villa Wolves 2-3 2.2 3.31 4
Brentford Chelsea 0-1 5.9 3.9 1.7
Everton West Ham 0-1 2.91 3.3 2.7
Leicester Manch Utd 4-2 3.9 3.97 2
Manch City Burnley 2-0 1.15 9.5 23
Newcastle Tottenham 2-3 3.9 3.71 2.12
Norwich Brighton 0-0 4.2 3.69 2.05
Southampton Leeds 1-0 2.18 3.75 3.55
Watford Liverpool 0-5 9.5 5.8 1.36

EPL Week 7

Brentford winning late on against West Ham gave us the biggest odds of the weekend EPL matches, although just over 4/1 was nothing to get that excited about, the Bees were the only team to win away this weekend.

It was a touch surprising to many because David Moyes's side had been in great form, and punters would have expected the Hammers to beat the newly-promoted side, however, the bookies were correct because Wolves who did win were a shorter price to beat Newcastle. 

  • Home 4
  • Draws 5
  • Away 1
Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Brighton Arsenal 0-0 3.35 3.4 2.35
Burnley Norwich 0-0 2.02 3.6 4.15
Chelsea Southampton 3-1 1.46 4.85 8.5
Crystal Palace Leicester 2-2 2.88 3.3 2.75
Leeds Watford 1-0 1.78 4.1 4.9
Liverpool Manch City 2-2 3.15 3.6 2.38
Manch Utd Everton 1-1 1.56 4.33 7.5
Tottenham Aston Villa 2-1 2.14 3.5 3.75
West Ham Brentford 1-2 1.82 3.85 5.13
Wolves Newcastle 2-1 1.71 4.3 5.3

EPL Week 6

Aston Villa have continued their good form from last season and again are being overpriced in games, the win against Man Utd away this weekend was the best-priced winning bet in week 6. 

Burnley drawing with Leicester was notable as the biggest winning draw of the three, the Clarets may need to be watched in their next couple of games, and could be a tad overpriced. 

  • Home 2
  • Draws 3
  • Away 5


Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Tottenham 3-1 2.25 3.4 3.6
Brentford Liverpool 3-3 8.3 5.2 1.44
Chelsea Manch City 0-1 2.9 3.25 2.72
Crystal Palace Brighton 1-1 2.96 3.14 2.75
Everton Norwich 2-0 1.73 3.82 5.8
Leeds West Ham 1-2 3.08 3.7 2.45
Leicester Burnley 2-2 1.71 3.95 5.6
Manch Utd Aston Villa 0-1 1.44 5.1 8.5
Southampton Wolves 0-1 2.25 3.42 3.78
Watford Newcastle 1-1 2.17 3.57 3.59

Running Total After Week 6:

  • Home 40%
  • Draws 25%
  • Aways 35%

EPL Week 5

Pep warned us that Man City may be suffering from a European hangover and he was right with them only managing a draw against Southampton at the Ethiad. 

The draw was a best price of 15/2 (8.5) and was easily the best winning price of week 5. 

We also saw 5 away wins which was the best week so far for teams on the road. 

  • Home 3
  • Draws 2
  • Aways 5

 

Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa Everton 30 2.21 3.5 3.65
Brighton Leicester 21 2.65 3.24 3.12
Burnley Arsenal 0-1 3.94 3.79 2.03
Liverpool Crystal Palace 30 1.29 6.3 12
Manch City Southampton 0-0 1.18 8.5 19
Newcastle Leeds 1-1 3.25 3.7 2.3
Norwich Watford 1-3 2.41 3.45 3.5
Tottenham Chelsea 0-3 4.5 3.45 2.04
West Ham Manch Utd 1-2 4.5 3.9 1.89
Wolves Brentford 0-2 1.87 3.42 5.4

EPL Week 4

Take a bow Crystal Palace, as well as beating Tottenham you supplied the highest winning odds of the weekend at 4.15 ( just over 3/1).

There were a couple of away teams at huge prices who fell short, although in Aston Villa's case they put up a decent show at Stamford Bridge, and could well be overpriced in their next couple of games. 

  • Home 5
  • Draws 1
  • Away 4
Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Norwich 1-0 1.44 5 8.5
Brentford Brighton 0-1 3.14 3.18 2.7
Chelsea Aston Villa 3-0 1.35 5.5 11
Crystal Palace Tottenham 3-0 4.15 3.35 2.13
Everton Burnley 3-1 1.8 3.6 5.58
Leeds Liverpool 0-3 5.04 4.5 1.67
Leicester Manch City 0-1 5.75 4.15 1.65
Manch Utd Newcastle 4-1 1.21 8 18
Southampton West Ham 0-0 3.16 3.55 2.36
Watford Wolves 0-2 3.7 3.26 2.28

BTW for those of you new to betting on football or betting the odds on offer for an event can be converted into a percentage. 

Each event's outcome percentage can then be totaled up to give you a total event percentage.

In football, there are only 3 outcomes, home or away or draw. If we look at this week's matches the total event percentage added up as follows. 

Match Best Odds Percentage
Arsenal v Norwich 101.21
Brentford v Brighton 100.33
Chelsea v Aston Villa 101.35
Crystal Palace v Tottenham 100.90
Everton v Burnley 101.25
Leeds v Liverpool 101.94
Leicester v Man City 102.09
Man Utd v Newcastle 100.70
Southampton v West Ham 102.19
Watford v Wolves 101.56

Now, these odds percentages came from picking and choosing the best odds, for example, the best odds for Arsenal may have come from BetVictor, the best odds for Norwich may have come from Betfair and the draw best odds could have been MarathonBet. 

It is important that we as bettors always take the best odds available, pre-match you will hardly ever see the best odds under 100%, but the closer you can get to 100% the better value you are getting. 

To read more about how odds and percentages are calculated please visit the guide to understanding bookmakers.

EPL Week 3

Week 3 saw fewer home wins. Late goals for Leeds and Newcastle saw more draws added. 

The standout winning odds were for Crystal Palace who surprised West Ham after twice going behind, only Tottenham and Man City were at shorter odds for home teams. 

In hindsight, Aston Villa and Brighton were underpriced against Brentford and Everton.

Villa may need time to play a different way now that Grealish has gone, it may take a few more weeks for them to get used to him missing. 

  • Home 3
  • Draws 5
  • Away 2
Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Aston Villa Brentford 1-1 2.1 3.35 4.1
Brighton Everton 2 2.35 3.34 3.46
Burnley Leeds 1-1 3.35 3.65 2.27
Liverpool Chelsea 1-1 2.47 3.4 3.25
Manch City Arsenal 5-0 1.36 5.25 10.5
Newcastle Southampton 2-2 2.51 3.74 2.95
Norwich Leicester 1-2 4.45 3.7 1.95
Tottenham Watford 1-0 1.48 4.65 8.5
West Ham Crystal Palace 2-2 1.59 4.2 7
Wolves Manch Utd 0-1 5.1 3.84 1.79

EPL Week 2

In the EPL Week 2 matches, we got some draws after none in the opening week.  

The draw between Southampton and Manchester United supplied the biggest winning odds of the weekend. 

West Ham following on from last season were a touch overpriced against Leicester, how long that generosity will last remains to be seen. 

  • Homes 5
  • Draws 3
  • Aways 2

The tables show the result + the best odds for each side at kick-off (BOKO) so for example, Arsenal was at odds of 4.8, the draw was 3.6, and the Chelsea odds to win the game were 1.93. 

Below is the running total of accumulative odds after 2 weeks, with Tottenham leading the table after wins against Man City and Wolves. 

Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Arsenal Chelsea 0-2 4.8 3.6 1.93
Aston Villa Newcastle 2-0 1.87 4.1 4
Brighton Watford 2-0 1.78 3.65 6
Crystal Palace Brentford 0-0 2.75 3.25 2.97
Leeds Everton 2-2 2.16 3.6 3.65
Liverpool Burnley 2-0 1.25 7 13.5
Manch City Norwich 5-0 1.13 11 26
Southampton Manch Utd 1-1 5.7 4.45 1.68
West Ham Leicester 4-1 2.52 3.5 3.1
Wolves Tottenham 0-1 3 3.15 2.79

EPL Week 1

In the opening weekend of the season, Tottenham were the stars after beating Man City at BOKO odds of 6.5 or 11/2. 

Promoted sides Brentford at 4.05 or 3/1 and Watford at 3.68 or 11/4 were surprise winners at home to Arsenal and Aston Villa. 

3 sides won away from home Brighton, Liverpool, and West Ham, there were no draws in any of the matches.

  • Home 7
  • Draws 0
  • Away 3

With thanks to long-term OLBG member Davidg3907 who collated the BOKO odds.

Home Away Result Home Odds Draw Odds Away Odds
Brentford Arsenal 2-0 4.05 3.35 2.15
Burnley Brighton 1-2 3.35 3.16 2.53
Chelsea Crystal Palace 3-0 1.35 5.4 11.5
Everton Southampton 3-1 2.1 3.45 4.2
Leicester Wolves 1-0 1.78 3.84 5.5
Manch Utd Leeds 5-1 1.67 4.33 5.5
Newcastle West Ham 2-4 3.46 3.6 2.21
Norwich Liverpool 0-3 7.5 4.9 1.5
Tottenham Manch City 1-0 6.5 4.33 1.61
Watford Aston Villa 3-2 3.68 3.45 2.27

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