The OLBG Mares Hurdle is a Grade 1 race for mares and also the final race of a 6 race series that started back at Wetherby in November, there were also races at Kempton (November), Cheltenham (December), Ascot (January) & Doncaster (January)

The winners of the other 5 races in the series were as follows -

Wetherby - La Bague Au Roi, who was sent off the 10/11 favourite.

Kempton - La Bague Au Roi, who was sent off 11/4 second favourite.

Cheltenham - Momella, who was sent off 7/2 joint favourite.

Ascot - La Bague Au Roi, who was sent off the 8/11 favourite.

Doncaster - Maria's Benefit, who was sent off the 10/11 favourite

So, as you can see from the results from the previous 5 races, 3 were clear favourites, 1 was a joint favourite and the other was second favourite

The race is run over 2 miles and 4 furlongs, and i have looked at the following 5 trends, Age, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Distance & Grade Form

10 Year Trends

  • Age

  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 7

  • Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 153+

  • Recent Runs

  • 9 of the last 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Distance

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further

  • Grade Form

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won/placed in a Grade 1, the other 2 were making their debuts at Grade 1 level

At present looking at the early decs for the race, we can see that 27 horses still remain in the race, only 24 are allowed to run so some will miss out, others will drop out to go to alternative targets, but looking at all 27 and the trends, we can see the following

Age, 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 7, we lose 6 on this trend, leaving 21

Official Rating, 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 153+, we lose all but 1 of the remaining entries

Recent Runs, 9 of the last 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts, the only selection left passes this trend

Distance, 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further, the remaining selection passes this trend

Grade Form, 8 of the last 10 winners had won or placed in a Grade 1, the other 2 winners were making their Grade 1 debut, the remaining selection has already won at Grade 1 level

The only horse to pass all of the trends in this race is Apples Jade, who is currently the 4/6 favourite, 7 of the 10 runnings of the race have been won by the favourite

If using a points system for each trend, this is what each horse would score -

Points System

42 x Apples Jade

33 x Asthuria

33 x Let's Dance

25 x Benie Des Dieux

25 x Brillare Memento

25 x La Bague Au Roi

25 x Merie Devie

25 x The Organist

24 x Augusta Kate

24 Jer's Girl

18 x Lady Buttons

17 x Vroum Vroum Mag

16 x Cap Soleil

16 x Graceful Legend

16 x Karalee

16 x Lagostovegas

16 x Pravalaguna

16 x Verdana Blue

9 x Indian Stream

9 x Kayf Grace

9 x Midnight Jazz

9 x Midnight Tour

7 x Angels Antics

7 x Barra

7 Northern Beau

0 x Dusky Legend

As we knew from the original trends, Apples Jade was the stand out selection but quite a lot of punters will not back at odds on, so looking for alternative EW selections, we can see that 2 horses come out clear as the 2nd choice on points, Asthuria & Let's Dance

Asthuria can currently be backed at 33/1, but she has been chasing and holds 3 chase entries at the festival too

Let's Dance can currently be backed at 8/1

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app review 2