The Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of the season for most National Hunt followers, with top class fields and top drawer horses in every race, it's very hard to constantly pick winners at this meeting

This blog will focus on all of the Handicap races over the 4 days of the meeting, in all of the races i will have looked at the same trends, Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Run, Year Runs, Year Wins, Distance & Class

There 10 handicap races over the 4 days of the meeting, i have looked at the above trends for all of the races, but i won't include the age trend for the 4yo race and i won't include the distance trend for any race run over 2m or slightly further

The following Handicap races take place at the Cheltenham Festival -

The Ultima Handicap Chase - Tuesday 2.50

The Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 5.30

The Coral Cup - Wednesday 2.50

The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - Wednesday 4.50

The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final - Thursday 2.10

The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate - Thursday 4.10

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase - Thursday 5.30

The Randox Health County Hurdle - Friday 2.10

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - Friday 4.50

The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase - Friday 5.30

The Ultima Handicap Chase - Tuesday 2.50 (Updated with scores)

The Ultima Handicap Chase is the first handicap of the meeting and is run over a trip of 3 miles 1 furlong


  • Age

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8

  • Weight

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-9 or more

  • Official Rating

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 142+

  • Recent Runs

  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had their last run within the last 45 days

  • Year Runs

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year

  • Distance

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3m or further

The 3 biggest priced winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase have been 14/1, 28/1 & 33/1, in the last 10 years. 13 of the last 19 winners have returned at 10/1 or less.
Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, it looks to be a very open race this year, the points are as follows -

50 x Yala Enki

50 x Shantou Flyer

50 x O O Seven

50 x Wakanda

50 x Singlefarmpayment

50 x Coo Star Sivola

50 x Vintage Clouds

50 x Minella Daddy

49 x Beware The Bear

42 x Ramses De Teillee

41 x Gold Present

41 x Vicente

34 x Vic De Touzaine

34 x Casse Tete

33 x Knight Of Noir

33 x Eamon An Cnoic

25 x Sizing Codelco

25 x Cogry

The Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase - Tuesday 5.30 (Updated with scores)

The Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase is the final race of the card on the opening day and is run over a trip of 2 miles 4 & 1/2 furlongs


  • Age

  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7

  • Weight

  • All of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more

  • Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 135 & 142

  • Recent Runs

  • All of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had their last run in the last 45 days

  • Year Runs

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 1 run that year

  • Distance

  • 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2 miles 4 furlongs or further

20/1 is the biggest priced SP of the winner of the Close Brothers Novices Chase, 8 of the 13 winners have returned at 10/1 or lower.

Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, it looks to be a very open race this year, the points are as follows -

60 x Mister Whittaker

53 x Divine Spear

53 x Markov

52 x Ballyhill

52 x Kayf Adventure

50 x Ibis Du Rheu

45 x Report To Base

45 x Livelovelaugh

44 x Any Second Now

44 x Barney Dwan

43 x Rather Be

43 x Western Miller

42 x Testify

41 x Conrad Hastings

41 x Jameson

37 x Tycoon Prince

36 x Le Rocher

36 x Rocklander

29 x Demi Sang

27 x De Plotting Shed

The Coral Cup - Wednesday 2.50 (Updated with scores)

The Coral Cup is the first handicap hurdle race of the meeting and is the 3rd race on day 2 and is run over 2 miles 5 furlongs


  • Age

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 to 7

  • Weight

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried 1106 or lower

  • Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated lower than 150

  • Recent Runs

  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 8 of the last 10 winners came here with a break of at least 39 days

  • Year Runs

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had either not run or only ram once that year

  • Distance

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2 miles 2 furlongs or further

Only 2 of the last 10 winners of the Coral Cup have returned at single figure prices. 7 of the last 10 have returned at SP's of between 12/1 & 16/1, only 4 of the last 20 winners have returned at higher prices than 16/1.
Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, it looks to be a very open race this year, the points are as follows -

60 x Fire Le Kap

60 x Stowaway Magic

60 x Barra

52 x As You Were

51 x C'est Jersey

51 x The Organist

51 x Jeannot De Nonant

51 x Flemcara

51 x Bastien

43 x River Frost

43 x Bleu Berry

43 x Voix Du Reve

43 x Mount Mews

43 x Springtown Lake

43 x Le Breuil

43 x Red Indian

43 x Graceful Legend

43 x Project Bluebook

36 x Max Dynamite

35 x Abbyssial

35 x Burbank

35 x Royal Vacation

33 x Topofthegame

27 x Dusky Legend

26 x William Henry

17 x Diamond King

The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - Wednesday 4.50 (Updated with scores)

The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is only open to horses aged 4 and is run over 2 miles & 1/2 furlong


  • Weight

  • 8 of the last 10 winners have carried 11-02 or less

  • Official Rating

  • All of the last 10 winners were rated 134 or less

  • Recent Runs

  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had a run within the last 32 days

  • Year Runs

  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 runs that year

  • Year Wins

  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won 50%+ of their runs that year

The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle has only been run 13 times, yet we have seen 8 winners returning at prices of 14/1 or higher, and only 4 returning in single figures.
Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, it looks to be a very open race this year, the points are as follows -

50 x Embole

50 x Solo Saxophone

43 x Oxford Blu

43 x Turning Gold

43 x Mastermind

43 x Grand Sancy

43 x Eragon De Chanay

42 x Lisp

34 x Veneer Of Charm

33 x Mercenaire

33 x Brave Dancing

32 x Mitchouka

32 x Esprit De Somoza

27 x Eureu Du Boulay

27 x The King Of May

27 x Knight Destroyer

23 x Look My Way

19 x Padleyourowncanoe

16 x Nube Negra

9 x Casa Tall

9 x Style De Garde

9 x Act Of Valour

The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final - Thursday 2.10 (Updated with scores)

The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final is run on day 3 of the meeting and is run over 3 miles.


  • Age

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 8

  • Weight

  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less

  • Official Rating

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 142 or lower

  • Recent Runs

  • 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

  • Last Run

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 48 days

  • Year Runs

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run between 1 & 3 times that year

  • Distance

  • 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 6f or further

  • Class

  • 7 of the last 10 winners had previously ran in a Graded race

15 of the last 20 winners in the Pertemps Final returned with an SP in double figures.
Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, the points are as follows -

55 x Lovenormoney

55 x Prime Venture

55 x Theo's Charm

55 x Taj Badalandabad

55 x The Mighty Don

55 x Protek Des Flos

55 x Dadsintrouble

48 x Connetable

47 x Sort It Out

47 x Delta Work

47 x Kansas City Chief

41 x A Great View

39 x Thomas Campbell

39 x Shantou Bob

39 x Dell' Arca

39 x Sykes

39 x Whataknight

38 x Wait For Me

38 x Glenloe

37 x Louis Vac Pouch

32 x Boite

31 x Forza Milan

22 x Who dares Wins

22 x Mine Now

The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate - Thursday 4.10 (Updated with scores)

The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate is run day 3 of the meeting and is a handicap chase run over 2 miles 5 furlongs


  • Age

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 9

  • Weight

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried under 11-00

  • Official Rating

  • All of the last 10 winners were rated 145 or lower

  • Recent Runs

  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 4 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 7 of the last 10 winners came here with a break of at least 28 days

  • Year Runs

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had between 1 & 3 runs that year

  • Distance

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2 miles 3 or further

Only 3 of the last 20 winners of The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate have returned at single figure prices, 8 of the last 20 have had an SP of 20/1 or higher.
Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, the points are as follows -

50 x Drumcliff

50 x Pougne Bobbi

50 x King's Odyssey

50 x Guitar Pete

43 x Splash Of Ginge

42 x Traffic Fluide

42 x Ultragold

42 x Midnight Shot

42 x Willie Boy

42 x Ballyalton

41 x Mercian Prince

41 x King's Socks

36 x Romain De Senam

35 x Quite By Chance

33 x Movewiththetimes

32 x Go Conquer

31 x Last Goodbye

31 x Tully East

31 x The Storyteller

28 x Shanahan's Turn

23 x Ballyboley

23 x Oldgrangewood

23 x Viconte Du Noyer

9 x Village Vic

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase - Thursday 5.30 (Updated with scores)

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase is the final race on day 3 of the meeting and is a handicap chase run over 3 miles 2 furlongs, its also only for Amateur riders


  • Age

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 & 9

  • Weight

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-00 or more

  • Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 134+

  • Recent Runs

  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had a break of at least 25 days before running here

  • Year Runs

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had either not run or ran no more than twice that year

  • Distance

  • 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over further than 2 miles 4 furlongs

  • Class

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had previously ran in a Graded chase

Bit of a mixed bag for the Kim Muir/Fulke Walwyn with 5 of the 10 returning at lower than 10/1 and another 5 with SP's of higher than that. Jamie Codd has won 4 of the last 9 renewals, 2 of those 4 have been for David Pipe
Looking at the trends for this race and applying the points system, the points are as follows -

67 x Actinpieces

67 x Final Nudge

67 x Missed Approach

67 x Sugar Baron

67 x Braqueur D'Or

67 x Squouateur

67 x The Young Master

61 x Wild West Wind

61 x Mall Dini

58 x Pendra

58 x Aubusson

52 x Double Ross

52 x Tintern Theatre

52 x Heron Heights

49 x Marinero

49 x Band Of Blood

49 x Arctic Gold

40 x Very First Time

40 x Millanisi Boy

31 x West Wizard

27 x Pressurize

22 x Captain Bucks

The Randox Health County Hurdle - Friday 2.10

The Randox Health County Hurdle is the 2nd race run on the last day of the meeting and is a handicap hurdle run over 2 miles and 1 furlong


  • Age

  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6

  • Weight

  • 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less

  • Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had a rating of between 132 & 139

  • Recent Runs

  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 8 of the last 10 winners came here after a break of at least 27 days

  • Year Runs

  • All of the last 10 winners had either not run or run no more than twice that year

  • Class

  • 7 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a graded hurdle race

Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings of the County Hurdle. 6 of the last 10 winners have returned at SP's of 20/1 or higher.

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - Friday 4.50

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle is like the title says, a race only for conditional jockeys, the race is the last hurdle race run at the meeting and is run over 2 miles 4 & 1/2 furlongs

This race has only been run 9 times, so we can only look at those 9 races

  • Age

  • All of the 9 winners were aged 5 or 6

  • Weight

  • All of the 9 winners carried 11-01 or more

  • Official Rating

  • All of the 9 winners were rated 133+

  • Recent Runs

  • 8 of the 9 winners had finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 8 of the 9 winners had their last run within the last 47 days

  • Year Runs

  • 8 of the 9 winners had run once or twice that year

  • Distance

  • 7 of the 9 winners had previously won over 2 miles 4 furlongs or further

  • Class

  • 7 of the 9 winners had previously ran in a Graded hurdle race

Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have won 5 of the last 7 runnings of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. 7 of the 9 winners have had an SP of 12/1 or higher.

The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase - Friday 5.30

The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase is the final race of the meeting, and is run over a trip of 2 miles and 1/2 furlong


  • Age

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 9

  • Weight

  • All of the last 10 winners carried 11-05 or lower

  • Official Rating

  • All of the last 10 winners were rated 147 or lower

  • Recent Runs

  • 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts

  • Last Run

  • 9 of the last 10 winners came here after a break of at least 4 weeks (28 days+)

  • Year Runs

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had either not run or ran once or twice that year

  • Class

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had previously ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase

Davy Russell is the only jockey to have won the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual chase more than once in the last 12 years. 7 of the last 8 winners have returned at double figure SP'S.

  • Cheltenham Festival Statistics Update.

  • The 3 biggest priced winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase have been 14/1, 28/1 & 33/1, in the last 10 years, 13 of the last 19 winners have returned at 10/1 or less.

  • 20/1 is the biggest priced SP of the winner of the Close Brothers Novices Chase, 8 of the 13 winners have returned at 10/1 or lower.

  • Only 2 of the last 10 winners of the Coral Cup have returned at single figure prices, although 7 of the last 10 have returned at SP's of between 12/1 & 16/1, only 4 of the last 20 winners have returned at higher prices than 16/1.

  • The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle has only been run 13 times, yet we have seen 8 winners returning at prices of 14/1 or higher and only 4 returning in single figures.

  • 15 of the last 20 winners in the Pertemps Final returned with an Sp in double figures.

  • Only 3 of the last 20 winners of The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate have returned at single figure prices, 8 of the last 20 have had an SP of 20/1 or higher.

  • Bit of a mixed bag for the Kim Muir/Fulke Walwyn with 5 of the 10 returning at lower than 10/1 and another 5 with SP's of higher than that, Jamie Codd has won 4 of the last 9 renewals, 2 of those 4 have been for David Pipe.

  • Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 8 runnings of the County Hurdle and 6 of the last 10 winners have returned at SP's of 20/1 or higher.

  • Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have won 5 of the last 7 runnings of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, and 7 of the 9 winners have had an SP of 12/1 or higher.

  • Davy Russell is the only jockey to have won the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual chase more than once in the last 12 years, and 7 of the last 8 winners have returned at double figure SP'S.

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