If you've not come across this blog before then what I've been doing is looking at goals based statistics such as Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score etc for what are regarded & referred to as the
Big 6 in the Premier League
Both Teams To Score Statistics for Big 6 after 22 matches
Man City 11 out of 22 ((50%)
Tottenham 11 out of 22 (50%)
Liverpool 11 out of 22 (50%)
Arsenal 11 out 22 (50%)
Man United 9 out of 22 (41%)
Chelsea 9 out of 22 (41%)
Thoughts on Both Teams To Score statistics
:- Along with Over 2.5 goals, the Both Teams To Score markets have been most reliant this season although some of the Big 6 did struggle to score or being involved in games with goals over the Christmas period so the figures did drop slightly.
Arsenal have had Both Teams To Score in their last 4 PL matches and they conceded 4 in the Cup at Forest.
So that combined with their obvious defensive issues in terms of injuries makes. Both Teams To Score in Bournemouth vs Arsenal look a solid bet to consider, it's only around 4/7 but that's not too bad based on the stats and likely profile of the match
The hugely anticipated Liverpool vs Man City clash is obviously the absolute standout fixture in the Premier League this weekend and I would think literally everybody will be expecting and punting on goals, that's why the bookmakers only offer around 4/11 for Both Teams To Score YES and why they're offering Both Teams To Score NO at 2/1.
I must admit I do expect goals in that fixtures and on the face of it I would be really surprised if both teams didn't score but I must also say there is something about the comparative odds that makes me feel that the 2/1 on Offer for Both Teams To Score NO definitely has some merit and has more immediate appeal than the 4/11 for BTTS Yes.Liverpool have had 7 home clean sheets in the Premier League, and Man City have kept 6 clean sheets away in the Premier League.
While many will view Liverpool vs Man City to be a BTTS YES banker, I personally won't be backing that at 4/11 and I think Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 is a better option in that match.
Both Teams To Score NO could be the right way to go in Chelsea vs Leicester City and Manchester United vs Stoke. Chelsea have Won their last 3 home PL matches To Nil
and Manchester United at home against a struggling Stoke City Man United have kept 8 clean sheets at home in the Premier League already this season
Both Teams To Score NO in Manchester United vs Stoke City is 4/6 and that appeals as a bet worth risking
, I just hope the fact Stoke City may have a new manager in for this doesn't suddenly make Stoke burst into life.
Tottenham have already conceded in 6 of their home Premier League matches this season including against the likes of Southampton, Burnley, Stoke and West Ham so I think the bookmakers could have made a slight error in offering up Tottenham vs Everton Both Teams To Score 6/5
, I know Everton under Allardyce are not the most prolific of sides but they'll have a new striker in place and they have shown more belief, Both Teams To Score YES in Tottenham vs Everton looks worth risking to me.
Over 2.5 Goals Statistics for Big 6 after 22 matches
Manchester City 17 out of 22 (77%)
Liverpool 15 out of 22 (68%)
Manchester United 13 out of 22 (59%)
Arsenal 12 out of 22 (55%)
Chelsea 11 out of 22 (50%)
Tottenham 10 out of 22
Thoughts on Over/Under 2.5 goals statistics
:- A quick glance at the statistics for Over 2.5 goals will show you that this is the most solid of all the categories I'm looking at and it's certainly been the most rewarding of the 4 markets so far in doing this blog, all of the big 6 apart from Tottenham have 50% or more of their games going Over 2.5 goals so far.
Manchester City lead the way in the Over 2.5 goals statistics with an amazing 77% of their PL matches going Over 2.5 goals, that figure has dropped from 82% after low scoring matches against Newcastle & Palace but there will be thousands & thousands of punters/fans surprised if Over 2.5 goals doesn't collect in Liverpool vs Man City this weekend, that's why the bookmakers only go 1/2 on it happening.
Man City & Liverpool have the two strongest Over 2.5 goals figures amongst the top 6 at 77% & 68% respectively Liverpool's last 5 PL matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, 8 of Man City last 10 PL matches have been Over 2.5 goals.
Based on the thoughts I've given for Both Teams To Score, Clean Sheets, Win To Nil etc for the Chelsea vs Leicester City and Man United vs Stoke City matches then while I'm not going to give a definitive prediction as I'm not totally confident about the goals situation, if given Free bets on this market I'd go Under 2.5 goals in those matches.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal is a match I've noted as a very lively Both Teams To Score contender and I'd have to say I think the same about Over 2.5 goals, both teams commit to playing open attacking football, that will suit Arsenal's extra attacking quality but Bournemouth can hurt Arsenal in return, it has the feel of a 2-1/3-2/3-2 type game
I'm unsure about Tottenham vs Everton from an Over 2.5 goals perspective as Tottenham's home PL matches have had a mixed bag in terms of goals, they've had a 4-1, a 5-1 & 5-2 but also had a string of 1-1 and 0-0 results at home, on that basis I'll leave it alone, if given a Free bet I'd probably just chance Over 2.5 goals as I'm risking Both Teams To Score YES.
Clean Sheets Kept Statistics for Big 6 after 22 matches
Manchester United 12 out of 22 (55%)
Manchester City 11 out of 22 (50%)
Chelsea 11 out of 22 (50%)
Arsenal 9 out of 22 (41%)
Tottenham 9 out of 22 (41%)
Liverpool 8 out of 22 (36%)
Matches Won To Nil Statistics for Big 6 after 22 matches
Manchester City 10 out of 22 (45%)
Manchester United 10 out of 22 (45%)
Chelsea 9 out of 22 (41%)
Tottenham 8 out of 22 (36%)
Arsenal 7 out of 22 (32%)
Liverpool 6 out of 22 (27%)
Thoughts on Cleans Sheets & Matches Won To Nil statistics
:- Given that there is naturally a very close connection between Clean Sheet & Matches Won To Nil stats, you can't Win To Nil if you don't keep a clean sheet, then I've decided to put the comments together from now on.
For the first part of the season, indeed just up until a few weeks ago, The Win To Nil and Clean Sheet stats looked very strong for most teams and it was proving quite straightforward to recommend backing teams to Win To Nil or To Keep A Clean sheet but as predicted in my blog before Christmas the Clean Sheet & Win To Nil figures have dropped over the hectic Christmas period and it will be fascinating to see how it goes once the Premier League returns from this weekend onwards.
The hectic Christmas period may well see that it will be harder to back teams to Win To Nil and keep Clean sheets as teams will be rotated through injuries and tiredness, in turn that will affect defensive structure & team patterns harder to implement.
That said these teams have done well with clean sheets in recent matches :-
Man City have had 3 clean sheets in their last 4 PL matches
Chelsea have had 4 clean sheets in their last 5 PL matches & 3 of those were Won To Nil by Chelsea
Manchester United have had 12 Clean Sheets in 22 PL matches and have kept clean sheets in their last 2
Feel free to use the stats how you see fit but I personally believe given the line up of this weekend fixtures involving the Big 6 ie Liverpool vs Man City, Tottenham vs Everton, Bournemouth vs Arsenal then it's tough to be confident enough about either of those sides keeping clean sheets or winning To Nil.
If there are to be Clean Sheets & Win To Nils amongst the Big 6 then they could come in Chelsea vs Leicester City as Chelsea have Won their last 3 home PL matches To Nil
and Manchester United at home against a struggling Stoke City, Man United have kept 8 clean sheets at home in the Premier League already this season