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Last Week’s Results
Couple of events last week, but no luck in Mauritius or Australia with the Patton Kizzire 70/1 winner seeming a long time ago
PGA Tour :
No official event but we picked up a nice 28/1 with Tommy Fleetwood finishing 3rd to make a nice return
We only have 1 event to go after this week with most of the tours now either wound down or in the process of doing so in the lead up to the festive period.
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Randpark GC, Firethorn, South Africa
Prize money = 16.5m ZAR (c1.6m Euros) winner 200k euro’s
South Africa have a rich history in this event since it was first played in 2007. Only three of the ten champions of the event have come from outside of South Africa.
240 hundred players in the field.
The top 3 here gain entry to The British Open
-27 under PAR is the record.
Schwartzel has form here with 2 wins and 1 RU
Richard Sterne will attempt to become the first player to win the Joburg Open three times, having triumphed in 2008 and 2013. Four of his six European Tour titles have come on home soil, including his last four
Darren Fitchard looks to defend his crown.
Two courses this week a quite different in styles the Firestone Course being more about length with the Bushwillow far more about the accuracy of the finer parts of the game. We should be in for a good test for all players
Course Info Firestone
4 x PAR 5 Holes
4 x PAR 3 holes
10 x PAR 4 holes
Longest hole : Hole 4 is 597 yards
Shortest hole : Hole 15 at 188 yards.
-Back 9 plays nearly 300yds longer than the front 9..
Course Info : Bushwillow
Short PAR 71
3 x PAR 5 Holes
4 x PAR 3 holes
11 x PAR 4 holes
Longest hole : no17. A PAR 4 playing 564 yards
Shortest hole : 6 a PAR 3 playing 167 yards
I have already mentioned the back 9 play longer and it does just feel like quite a long course, you look at the PAR 4, they all seem up the upper end of the PAR 4 range. Traditionally the South African Tour courses have suited the bigger hitters and I think we will see the same here.
It has the largest field on both tours with 240 professionals, including 30 Asian Tour members, four amateur invites, with the remainder shared between the European and Sunshine Tours. The two headlines acts, much like last week in Mauritius is Louis Oosthuizen and Dylan Frittelli
* held elsewhere
First up, I don't back under 20/1. Its one of my first rules, I know from time to time a short one goes in but we take that rough with the nice bigger winners as they come around. I also appreciate at the end of season events we often see the short prices come to the fore but there are still often decent prices around
I have a rough formula that will allow me to get say 15-20 players of the field which is usually 156 or thereabouts. That 15-20 will have scored points on course form, recent form, times of year the players come into form (much like a horse runs better in different parts of the season). I will also have some factoring for both the style and length of the course.
In a nutshell I then trust my gut feel who of that shortlist I go with. Sometime it is around the price (or VFM - value for money or risk to reward as I call it). Traditionally then I pick 4 player of which I think are genuine contenders (normally between 20-1 and 100/1). They will be played and 0.5pts EW each time, so we play 4 points on that.
I will then sometimes have a couple of larger priced players that are considered outsiders, and I usually have 2 of those and we play 0.25 EW, so 2 points usually.
There are two major Tours so we usually play between 10-12pts per week with points split accordingly.
As I have said above we only play 10-12 pts PER WEEK, which is massively different from say football and Horses were often you can play that everyday. This is why you cannot dip in and out generally when betting on golf. We have up and down days hence the reason the pot we start with tends to have 8-10wks betting money in it. It is a much slower burn and I consider it a bit more of a pot builder compared to the Acca style big wins
When betting on golf it is absolutely critical that you stick to the same stakes when using my formula, I know some people use different stakes for different prices. There is nothing wrong with that, just doesn't work for my bets
Dry for those out early with rain expected not too long after lunch time. Temps of 21 degrees and wind around 10 mph
Rainy through most of the day (occasionally thundery), with the rain clearing later in the day. Temp is 23 degrees and wind up to 12mph
Sunny until around lunch time with rain and occasional thunder, 26 degrees warm and 14 mph wind.
Clear and sunny until late afternoon where storms are expected. 28 degrees and wind of 10 mph.
Depending on how quick they are to take players off we could be looking at a Monday finish
This is a HUGE field so it will be even tougher to find some winners there are over 240 players this week compared to the usual 150 odd, so with the larger field I can't help but fancy chancing my odds at some bigger prices.
Outright Tournament Winners
Shaun Norris 40/1 (EW 6 places 1/5 odds) with Unibet
Always like to back someone who has some hot form coming into this. He has 4 top 10’s in his last 6 including a T2 last week in Asia where he has been plying his trade in the majority of 2017. Not totally sure how his form transfers literally but there are few in the field with such good recent form, back on home turf he should go well.
Eric Van Rooyen 70/1 (EW 5 places 1/4 odds) 70/1 (EW 6 places 1/5 odds) with Stan James
Eric this season has been one of the stars on the Challenge Tour this season, he won two events and has secured his full ET card, more interestingly his one of his wins was here in South Africa when winning the Eye Of Africa PGA Champs, the talented South African should have another good week.
Outsiders (100/1 +)
Louis De Jager 100/1 (EW 6 places 1/5 odds) with Unibet
Played very well for most of last weeks event in South Africa, just dropping away in the last few holes as Frittelli went on to win. Has peppered the top 20 throughout the last 4 months or so and last weeks effort might spur him on.
Jacques Kruyswijk 125/1 (EW 6 places 1/5 odds) with Stan James
Jacques has not quite been of the level as last season which saw him win and come 2nd on this tour. He is not far away though with his recent form (he won a Q-school event a few weeks ago) with a number of top 20 finishes. At 125/1 he is worth a poke on home turf.
Tapio Pulkkanen 300/1 (EW 6 places 1/5 odds) with Stan Jame
Tapio is on a fast climb through the world ranking. At the turn of the year he was outside the world's top 1000, now with a great season on the Challenge Tour, a couple of off PAR Performances can be forgiven after securing his full European Tour Card but at his best this season, he had 3 2nd places and a win. At a silly price is worth a punt.