Welcome to my blog, those coming back welcome back and those reading for the first time, welcome along, I hope you like it. If there is anything I have missed please let me know I will endeavour to add it or find out for you.
Last Week's Results
Bloody hell - we got absolutely flippin' nowhere top 30 was I think the best we got and we seem a long way from getting it right on the European Tour.
PGA Tour :
Really Really pleased to see Patton Kizzire
return to the winners enclosure at a stonking 60/1
and long over due after a barron 3 weeks on the Tour.
We head to Georgia for the RSM, an event I really like, with the split course feature both of contrasting styles. For those that remember last year the weather made this a Monday finish (where McKenzie Hughes drained one from off the green to win) to go back to back.
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Course 1 (Seaside)
2x PAR 5 Holes
4x PAR 3 holes
12x PAR 4 holes
Shortest hole is No 6 a PAR 3 playing 179 yards
Longest hole is No 7 a PAR 5 playing 582 yards
Easiest hole is No 15 a PAR 5, with a 49% birdie rate (avg
Toughest hole is No 14 a PAR 4 with a 17% bogey rate (avg 4.111)
Course 2 (Plantation)
4x PAR 5 Holes
4x PAR 3 holes
10x PAR 4 holes
Shortest hole is TBC
Longest hole is TBC
Neither are big courses, both just over 7000 yds but interestingly the plantation course is a PAR 72 compared to the Seaside course which is a PAR 70 and looking at the course map should get a few more birdies on the Seaside Course.
Disappointingly there is no-one from the world's Top 10 here this week, Matt Kuchar (currently 14th subject to further updates to rankings) is the highest. Is that a bad thing? Perhaps for the course and the attendance, but usually we have 4 rounds of golf with plenty of players having chances to win.
* held elsewhere
First up, I don't back under 20/1. Its one of my first rules, I know from time to time a short one goes in but we take that rough with the nice bigger winners as they come around. I also appreciate at the end of season events we often see the short prices come to the fore but there are still often decent prices around
I have a rough formula that will allow me to get say 15-20 players of the field which is usually 156 or thereabouts. That 15-20 will have scored points on course form, recent form, times of year the players come into form (much like a horse runs better in different parts of the season). I will also have some factoring for both the style and length of the course.
In a nutshell I then trust my gut feel who of that shortlist I go with. Sometime it is around the price (or VFM - value for money or risk to reward as I call it). Traditionally then I pick 4 player of which I think are genuine contenders (normally between 20-1 and 100/1). They will be played and 0.5pts EW each time, so we play 4 points on that.
I will then sometimes have a couple of larger priced players that are considered outsiders, and I usually have 2 of those and we play 0.25 EW, so 2 points usually.
There are two major Tours so we usually play between 10-12pts per week with points split accordingly.
As I have said above we only play 10-12 pts PER WEEK, which is massively different from say football and Horses were often you can play that everyday. This is why you cannot dip in and out generally when betting on golf. We have up and down days hence the reason the pot we start with tends to have 8-10wks betting money in it. It is a much slower burn and I consider it a bit more of a pot builder compared to the Acca style big wins
When betting on golf it is absolutely critical that you stick to the same stakes when using my formula, I know some people use different stakes for different prices. There is nothing wrong with that, just doesn't work for my bets
Sunny, temperatures of 21 degrees and wind around 7-8 mph - no interruptions expected.
Sunny with cloudy intervals with temps hitting 22 degrees. Wind will be up to 10 mph - no interruptions expected.
Sunny with cloudy intervals with temps hitting 24 degrees. Wind will be up to 15 mph (gusts to 20mph)- no interruptions expected.
Sunny with cloudy intervals with temps hitting 18 degrees. Wind will be up to 15 mph - no interruptions expected.
We really have 4 great days weather for golf, we could see some low scores here!!
Outright Tournament Winners
With by PGA Tour is a poor turn out in terms of top ranking players (worth noting Matsuyama, Schauffele, Koepka and Wesley Bryan have all gone to the JGTO this week) there is clearly some value to be had this week but keeping it sensible this week.
There are 4 I like in the sub 100/1 market which I have listed below and then one larger priced outsider
S W Kim 80/1 with Bet365
In terms of world rankings in this field he is ranked 5th so to see him at 80/1 tells you on raw form he is over priced, I grant you that he has been out of form in recent weeks but a 3rd place last week in The OHL I am hoping will show a return to form after 4 sub 70 rounds (65 in R4 was very noteworthy) and worth an EW shout.
Scott Brown 50/1 with Bet365
From a selection point of view Scott ticks two boxes, he has some good recent form (two top 10's in his last 3 events) in probably stronger field than this. He has played well here in the past too, with 3 top 20 finishes in 4 years (one of those he was 4th in 2013).
With both of those in consideration he is a likable price at 50/1
Alex Cejka 66/1 with Bet365
Was DQ'd 3 weeks ago when not doing anything of particular note, but really turned up in the last two weeks with a 2nd and a 9th at the OHL and Sanderson Farms respectively. He has a 6th place finish here two years ago (didn't play last year). His stats won't show you anything spectacular as he had an average start to the season but that does mask some value on recent good form.
Charles Howell 25/1 with Bet365
Absolutely no surprise to see Chales towards the top of the tree here, and he is certainly a horses for courses type of player here in his previous 7 visits he has 3 top 10's and only one missed cut, so clearly goes well and likes it here. Of his recent form appears to be peaking just in time, a 19th, 14th and then last week a 4th in The OHL. He is ranked 21st for GIR too which is a major positive
Outsiders (100/1 +)
Henrik Norlander 250/1 with Bet365
I can see why Henrik is as big as he is in the betting market, but it's worth nothing he was 2nd in this event last year s can play well here which has turned out to be his 2nd best result of his career (based on OWGR points scored). Completely speculative after a number of weeks off, but surely worth a small poke ew?