Jun 21st, 2015, 16 comments
Massive NFL and horse racing fan, more likely to discuss NFL and happy to share my thoughts.
Week 10 early thoughts available.
Aims and guidelines re-established.
Rolling 18 points profit from the first three weeks.
Blog will be updated daily with thoughts and selections.
After three weeks of running my Anytime Touchdown Scorers betting blog I felt it was time to move on to producing it on a weekly basis rather than overblowing the current one.
You can check it out here but I’ll recap briefly what’s happened and the aims and ideas that this blog wants to achieve.
1, Profit...obviously. But I look for good prices. This blog won’t be offering even money shots. I’m looking for value and high rewards. Look at the last three weeks and I offer up about 10-12 selections but it only needs one or two to deliver a tidy profit.
2, Securing value. The key to this is having a price you want and also hitting the markets as they emerge. Sunday days start getting prices on Friday and more firms come online on Saturday. You also need to watch the injury reports and understand the opportunities with certain angles. I’ll explain those as I offer picks.
3, Do the work. As already mentioned, with the markets varying in when they come online you have to keep checking in. This is why it’s good to have a list of targets and an idea of what you want beforehand. It’s also why it’s vital you try and get in quickly if a circumstance changes (injury, suspension, promotion/demotion).
These are the type of situations I like to look for.
1, Quarterbacks. Sometimes these can be long priced and in the first three weeks I’ve hit a 6/1, two 12/1’s and a 14/1 shot from this position. It can be overpriced for a player who is on the field for every snap. Clearly some QB’s never run but one angle I love is replacement QB’s. They so often get overpriced and will run more partly because of inexperience and partly in an effort to impress and make something happen.
2, Running Backs. A good to great starter will usually be odds on but I like to look for guys who are heavy in the rotation who are priced 2/1 and above. I also like to keep my eyes and ears peeled for guys who are looking to get increased snaps and reps or are moving up the depth chart because of injuries.
3, Wide Receivers. This is probably my least favourite position to back. Teams rotate so many guys in and out nowadays and the top end guys are always very short. It’s just a case of looking for something you feel is overpriced and looking for guys that might be about to break out.
4, Tight Ends. You can get some very intriguing situations here as some teams use this position almost like an extra Wide Receiver. I like looking for No.2 TE’s at prices 6/1 and above or a decent start at 4’s or more.
5, Defenses. I ran some defensive stats out in the original blog but basically the true odds of a defensive TD is about 13/2. Obviously, a strong D or a strong favourite will likely see that price much shorter and in recent years the bookies have been tight on defensive prices. However, this year has seen the likes of PaddyPower being much more generous on price. Anything at 9/2 or greater is worth looking at, anything 6/1 or more is 75% sure to be a bet.
Tuesday and Wednesday - looking ahead to Week 10 and considering targets or games which could be where the value lies. Wednesday would also include a look at the Thursday Night game as prices become available for that. A selection could be offered if it fits the guidelines.
Thursday is a day to look through the first two days of practice reports and see who could be missing at the weekend and who might be in line to step into their shoes. Also revisit the TNF game incase any additional news/prices come to light.
Friday will see us review TNF and look for the prices coming online for Sunday. Bet365 are usually the first ones up with the likes of Betway, 10bet, Unibet and Boylesports also pricing up some games. SkyBet usually come up with their prices Friday evening with Coral and Ladbrokes just behind and then PaddyPower and Betfair are usually last up on either late Friday or early Saturday.
Saturday and Sunday sees us follow where the money goes and if there are any knock on effects to follow. One of the key times is one hour before kickoff (5pm GMT and 8pm GMT) as the game inactives become known and this can be a small window of opportunity for finding overpriced backups replacing starters.
Monday will be a review of what’s happened and a look at the Monday Night game for any value there.
So, without further ado:
Rolling Profit/Loss - 18pts
Tuesday 07/11/2017. 22:00
Saints at Bills: Two teams that were hot but one of them slipped last week. The Bills are excellent at home but I doubt it sees any Saints weapons get a longer quote. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has brought profit to the blog previously but after getting him at 14/1 in Week 8 he was only 3/1 in Week 9 (he did score again though!) so we’ll at least look. The Bills defensive TD price will be interesting.
Packers at Bears: Packers QB Brett Hundley went in again, this time at 4’s after going in for the blog at 6’s in Week 8. I suspect he’ll start really short but sometimes the price drifts as money goes elsewhere. I can’t see the Bears D getting a good price but you never know. The Pack got WR Trevor Davis more involved on offense this last week and he also handles returns and has been a massive price in previous weeks (33/1+) so maybe this is the week to take a small shot with him.
Browns at Lions: RB Ameer Abdullah fumbled twice last week and might be in the doghouse so let’s check out how some of the other Lions RB’s are priced.
Steelers at Colts: Not much here for me as this looks a bit of a mismatch but keep an eye on PaddyPower prices in that regard as they usually offer a bit of value on the underdog teams players.
Chargers at Jaguars: What price Leonard Fournette to return after last week and score? Probably evens at best, more likely odds on. What I will be looking for is the Chargers defensive price. They have a fantastic pair of pass rushers and Blake Bortles might be quietly doing his job but even if the Bengals failed in their call out attempt last week, I still think Bortles can be got at.
Jets at Buccaneers: With Mike Evans suspended it might well be worth looking down the depth chart. Rookie WR Chris Godwin might be the guy they try to get more involved in Evans’ place. He’s generally been double digits in previous weeks so let’s see what’s on offer with the change in circumstances.
Bengals at Titans: Not too much here for me early on. Bengals rookie RB Joe Mixon has been a favourite and went in at a really good price for last weeks blog but I get the feeling he’ll be much shorter this week because of that.
Vikings at Redskins: The ‘Skins have a tonne of players on the injury report so watch that closely this week.
Texans at Rams: Opposing fortunes for these two teams and I suspect the Rams players will all be shortened up so again, in a game where one team will be heavy favourites look for underdogs to be overpriced.
Cowboys at Falcons: This screams shootout to me. The Ezekiel Elliott ruling is due down on Thursday but prices won’t be around then. If he goes down I’ll be looking at the other RB prices and possibly the Atlanta D if Dak Prescott is forced to throw more.
Giants at 49ers: QB CJ Beathard has hit paydirt at double digit figures the past two weeks. Will he be overpriced again? Unlikely, especially against a single win side. I’d look at the Giants D here and also 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin. With Pierre Garcon out he should get more chances and averages a tasty 19 yards per grab with his great speed a challenge to any D. He’s yet to find paydirt but surely it’s only a matter of time?
Patriots at Broncos: The Pats aren’t a team I look too that often as they play the hot hand more than anyone but if Chris Hogan is out then it might be worth a look down the WR depth chart and see if anything is priced too long. There isn’t much I can fancy from Denver at this point but the underdog aspect of being overpriced is worth a look.
Wednesday 08/11/2017. 12:30
We have prices for TNF!
Seahawks at Cardinals: The situation to watch approaching this game has been the Seahawks limp rushing attack. When your Quarterback is your leading rusher there’s an issue! Eddie Lacy was supposed to get the shot last week but he got injured and looks highly unlikely to play this week. Fullback Tre Madden is also out, on IR and likely done for the season. That leaves Thomas Rawls, JD McKissic and CJ Prosise. The latter is returning from injury. Rawls will be the lead back by all reports and the prices reflect that with bet365 only going 6/4 but SkyBet offer a much tastier 5/2! Bet365 do offer better prices on Prosise and McKissic though, going 4’s and 5’s respectively.
Now I’m sure some are reading this and thinking “why are you banging on about the rubbish Seahawks running game” and you’re not wrong, it has performed poorly, but the Seahawks do want to run the ball and they do want to use their Running Backs. They are averaging 27 rushes per game which is middle of the pack compared to the league but if it works they’ll use it more.
In a game where freshness might help, Prosise could be the wildcard but I like the longest priced of the three in JD McKissic. He’s broken a couple of big plays this year and is a good receiver and at 5/1 - he’s the first bet of the week.
Thursday 09/11/2017. 12:30
PaddyPower have come online with their prices and quite frankly they are head and shoulders above their rivals and the prices alone could tempt me into several bets. They match the 5/1 I took about JD McKissic yesterday (has shortened to 4’s with bet365 now) but the following other prices have me pondering an additional bet: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Cardinals) - 9/1; Cardinals Defense - 9/1; Seahawks Defense - 5/1; Jaron Brown and JJ Nelson (WR, Cardinals) - both 6/1; Luke Wilson (TE, Seahawks) - 15/2. Actually though, you can get the Seahawks D at a better price of 7/1 with Sportingbet.
All of those are overpriced IMO but at the same time it wouldn’t be wise to back them all. Given the Cardinals situation with a backup QB and the Seahawks one-dimensional offense at present I’m going to take half a point on each defense and see what happens. I wouldn’t put anyone off any of the above players as a single though.
Friday 10/11/2017. 19:30
No joy last night so we move on to Sunday.
Packers QB Brett Hundley will be taken at 5/1 with bet365 or Betway to score for the third week running as will 49ers QB CJ Beathard at 10/1 again with bet365. Maybe it’s asking too much to have these guys score again but the prices are way too big. The danger with Beathard is I suspect with a week or so of practice, Jimmy Garoppolo is not far from being able to play and don’t be shocked if the Niners make a QB change mid-game if things aren’t going well. Elsewhere there isn’t too much I’m on early but I think Travis Benjamin (WR, Chargers) - 6/1 with bet365 looks overpriced although he is facing a tough pass defense. However, he also returns punts which is a consideration.
Buc’s WR Chris Godwin was a mention earlier this week and he’s come online at 6/1 with bet365 but I think we might be best hanging on as I’m hoping someone will offer double digits somewhere. Buc’s QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at 8’s with the same firm could be tempted and he fits my liking for taking replacement QB’s who can be overpriced and Fitzpatrick is a capable scrambler. However, again, I think I’ll hang fire for a bit.
The Cowboys have some Wide Receivers on the injury report so deep threat Brice Butler looks value at 7/1 with bet365. It looks like Dez Bryant will play but given the knock he is carrying and the possible decline in the Cowboys running game I think Butler is worth a punt. Speaking of the Cowboys running game, Darren McFadden is the only one at a price I would even think about but at 7/2 and total uncertainty about how the work will be spread I’ll steer clear unless I find much bigger elsewhere.
SkyBet should come online later with the likes of Coral and Ladbrokes also starting to offer prices. PaddyPower will be late tonight and early tomorrow so I’ll be back with any prices from those firms that I like. The prices I have taken with bet365 could be bettered but I suspect they are as good as they’ll get and they are prices I’m happy with. At the same time, I’m also waiting on a couple of players because I believe a better price can and will be offered. I hope to be back later tonight or early in the morning with an update.
Friday 10/11/2017. 19:30
SkyBet, Coral/Ladbrokes and some PaddyPower prices are filtering through now. The first game to get some attention is the Packers @ Bears where Packers WR Randall Cobb is coming off his best game since Week 2 and given their young QB’s inability to push the ball downfield, shorter, quick routes to guys who can make plays with the ball in their hands is the order of the day. He only has one receiving TD this year but has 36 career receiving TD’s in 88 career games so 13/2 with PaddyPower looks overpriced. I did mention Trevor Davis earlier in the week and PP offer 30/1 for him.
The Packers defense, against a young QB also looks big at 15/2 with the same firm. Staying with defenses and PaddyPower go 6/1 the Redskins and 7/1 the Vikings! They also offer 13/2 about Redskins WR Terrelle Pryor who has moved down the depth chart but if TE Jordan Reed is out he could well feature more. They go a very high price on QB Kirk Cousins again at 12/1. In 40 starts since 2015 he has 10 career rush TD’s so you do the maths.
Unfortunately SkyBet have kept their opening book extremely tight and there is nothing I want from them at present. As an example, 49ers QB CJ Beathard, who I suggested earlier today at 10/1 with bet365, is 15/8 with SkyBet. Packers QB is 9/4 (can still get 5/1) and Randall Cobb is 10/3 (13/2 available). Poor show from them. Coral and Ladbrokes don’t have much on offer either.
PaddyPower have only priced up the two games mentioned so I’ll be back tomorrow with more once they have added all the games but for now we add Randall Cobb, Trevor Davis and Kirk Cousins to the week’s list.
Saturday 11/11/2017. 09:40
PaddyPower have got the remainder of the games priced up now and a few notable prices to consider.
I’ll start with the Browns @ Lions where PP do offer the Browns Defense at a massive 9/1! I have previously swore off any Browns bet but that and QB DeShone Kizer at 12/1 (he has 3 rushing TD’s in 7 starts so his true odds are way lower than this price) have to go on the list. I have actually found a defense PP aren’t best priced on though as they only go 5/1 about the Bengals Defense whereas SkyBet go 11/2!
In the Chargers @ Jaguars game PaddyPower have outpriced bet365 on Chargers WR Travis Benjamin at 13/2! I’ll just have to live with my 6/1 but if you aren’t on yet then there is a better price about! They also go 13/2 about the Chargers Defense and that will be a definite selection for me with Blake Bortles versus that deadly pass rush.
In the Saints @ Bills game I’m sure many will be looking forward to the debut of WR Kelvin Benjamin for the Bills but they have a rookie WR in Zay Jones who has been seeing more targets and receptions in recent weeks and Benjamin’s presence could open things up for him. PaddyPower had him quoted at 14/1 (via oddschecker) but once I got on their site he had disappeared so it appears I just missed a pricing error. I’ll recheck later just in case. It actually turns out he is declared out injured!
I had said previously I wanted to wait for a better price on Bucs WR Chris Godwin but PaddyPower have only matched the 6/1. I actually think I’d rather turn my attention to the Patriots @ Broncos where the visitors will be missing WR Chris Hogan this week so maybe it’s finally a chance for Phillip Dorsett, acquired in a trade in preseason (with the Colts for QB Jacoby Brissett) to have a shot at more time and he’s a bet at 8/1 with PaddyPower.
Also, going back to the Vikings @ Redskins game, the Redskins are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to Tight Ends this season so Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph could well be overpriced at 4/1.
We’ll add Philip Dorsett, Kyle Rudolph and a Lucky 15 on defenses to this week’s list.
Sunday 12/11/2017. 14:20
Sunday’s are a day for consideration, checking on any market moves on the betting list and most importantly, getting up to date with injury situations and then one hour before kickoff (so 5pm GMT for the early games and 8pm for the later starts) checking the inactive lists.
So, with regards to the prices I took on Friday and Saturday we’ve had a couple of moves. DeShone Kizer is in from 12’s to 9’s. Randall Cobb has shortened slightly to 6’s from 13/2. Kyle Rudolph has gone from 4/1 to 12/5. Kirk Cousins is now 10’s from 12’s. Phillip Dorsett has gone from 8/1 into 9/2. All still remain a best price with PaddyPower.
One price has moved out a touch and that’s Travis Benjamin who is now 7/1 with PaddyPower (I’ve taken 6’s with Bet365 but PP were originally in at 13/2).
From the injury report, actives/inactives to look for include Cowboys WR Dez Bryant. If he is missing it boosts the chances for Brice Butler. Also keep an eye on Titans TE Delanie Walker’s status. If he can’t go 13/2 about Jonnu Smith could be a great price.
I’ll try and check back in at the hour before the early kickoffs with an update.
Sunday 12/11/2017. 17:00
Inactives are coming through for the early games. Delanie Walker plays so that holds off a late shot on Jonnu Smith. Staying with TE’s though, the Bears lost Zach Miller to a horror injury two weeks ago and now have Dion Sims inactive due to illness tonight so rookie Adam Shaheen could be worth a look at 14/1 with PaddyPower. He’s a late addition to the list.
Monday 13/11/2017. 12:00
Time to look back at what happened last night and also look towards the Monday Night Game for any potential bets.
It was a great week thanks to three of the longer priced selections offered going in. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins actually scored twice (on two of the ugliest touchdowns you’ll see but they all count!) to get us off to a flyer. Then Browns QB DeShone Kizer, after a head scratching attempt at a sneak just before half time (he must have been determined to go in for me!), managed to get it right in the second half before going out injured. So with these two in from the early games we were already in profit. We were then topped off by 49ers QB CJ Beathard going in for the third week in a row - I owe that boy a drink if I ever meet him! If you did follow this bet with bet365 make sure you’ve been paid as I was settled as a loser incorrectly and had to challenge it via the live chat. It was paid shortly afterward.
So that gives us a 37 point return from a 16 point outlay (before any MNF bets)! I will temper this by saying it is a good week and whilst making a profit is the ultimate goal, demonstrating how and when to get value is an important. This was shown this week as several of the selections offered shortened up and some week’s I suspect this blog will feature a tail of woe and near misses. We did get a bit of what I call “last weekers” with the likes of 49ers TE Garrett Celek going in (I’d backed him at 22/1 a couple of weeks back, he was 4/1 yesterday) but this will always be a part of backing players on a weekly basis. The law of averages will get you on occasion.
What of the non-scorers? Is there anyone worth following? I’d definitely look at Packers WR Randall Cobb again if he is a similar price. He’s much more involved in the Pack offense. Staying with the Cheeseheads, QB Brett Hundley continues to show he’s a part of the rush attack too so he’s worth having faith with. The main worry is that you may not get the prices that they were this week again but we can only wait and see.
So, to Monday night and the Dolphins @ Panthers. It’s no shock that PaddyPower are best price on just about all the players listed for tonight’s game. Notable prices include Dolphins WR’s Jarvis Landry at 3/1, DeVante Parker at 7/2 and Kenny Stills at 5/1! The latter is especially appealing. TE Julius Thomas is 6/1 whilst both rushers - Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams (who has been on the injury report) are priced at 7/2. The Dolphins Defense can be backed at 15/2.
The Dolphins don’t have a rushing TD this year by their running backs so that’s a hard sell although Williams, if he plays, looks the better option as he does more as a receiver and had a receiving TD last week.
Thomas’ price looks tempting coming off a season's best game last week but that’s been the exception rather than the rule and I’m going to suggest Kenny Stills is the outstanding value here for several reasons. Firstly he has 24 career TD’s in 71 career games. So basically he scores once in every 3 games (true odds of 3/1). He’s scored 4 TD’s in 8 games so far this season so is trending at 2/1. His odds are likely longer here because of the Dolphins inconsistent offensive form and they are on the road to a team with a good defense but Stills has speed to get behind any defense. He’s similar to DeSean Jackson (WR for the Buccaneers) in that he’s a bit of a feast or famine player and likely to frustrate you as a fantasy football owner but the price is so good it’s worth the investment.
Are their any Panthers players worth a look? If you think QB Cam Newton can go in again and add to his impressive TD total then he’s 2/1 with William Hill which reflects his true odds as he scores on the ground every other game on average. I would leave the Panthers rushers alone as that side of their game is a bit of mess. They seem to be looking to feature rookie Christian McCaffrey more but he’s too short (8/5) for my liking whilst Jonathan Stewart fumbled twice last week and may have to regain the coaches trust. WR Curtis Samuel was on the injury report but is expected to play and he looks to be a player to watch going forward but at 4/1 I’d have liked him closer to last weeks price of 5/1 so I’ll stick with Kenny Stills as the lone bet for tonight’s game.
Tuesday 14/11/2017. 12:00
No luck from the Monday Night game but both Landry and Thomas were pointed to as value. I went with the wrong Dolphins receiver. But, overall, three good winners give a tidy profit for the week and a good profit to carry forward into Week 11.
Summary and Betting Tips
TNF - JD McKissic (RB, Seahawks) - 1pt @ 5/1 with bet365 - LOST
TNF - Seahawks Defense - 1pt @ 5/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
TNF - Cardinals Defense - 0.5pts @ 9/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
Brett Hundley (QB, Packers) - 1pt @ 5/1 with bet365 - LOST
CJ Beathard (QB, 49ers) - 1pt @ 10/1 with bet365 - WON!
Travis Benjamin (WR, Chargers) - 1pt @ 6/1 with bet365 - LOST
Brice Butler (WR, Cowboys) - 1pt @7/1 with bet365 - LOST
Randall Cobb (WR, Packers) - 1pt @ 13/2 with PaddyPower - LOST
Trevor Davis (WR, Packers) - 0.5pts @ 30/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
Kirk Cousins (QB, Redskins) - 1pt @ 12/1 with PaddyPower - WON!
DeShone Kizer (QB, Browns) - 1pt @ 12/1 with PaddyPower - WON!
Phillip Dorsett (WR, Patriots) - 1pt @ 8/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
Kyle Rudolph (TE, Vikings) - 1pt @ 4/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
Packers (7/1); Browns (9/1); Redskins (13/2); Chargers (13/2) - Defenses - 0.2pts Lucky 15 (3pts total) with PaddyPower - LOST
Adam Shaheen (TE, Bears) - 1pt @ 14/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
MNF - Kenny Stills (WR, Dolphins) - 1pt @ 5/1 with PaddyPower - LOST
Total Outlay = 17pts
Returns = 37pts
Weekly Profit/Loss = 20pts
Rolling Profit/Loss = +38pts
You can follow me on Twitter @ChrisJBrophy.
Massive NFL and horse racing fan, more likely to discuss NFL and happy to share my thoughts.
Apr 23rd, 2018, 4 comments