The VALUE CALCULATOR is a recently developed methodology which will hopefully assist punters to identify horse racing wagers which will secure consistent and sustainable profits in the long term.
The purpose of this blog is to provide readers with an index, with easily accessible links to all of the articles that have been posted in respect of the VALUE CALCULATOR.
The original article, which includes background information and the methodology for using the VALUE CALCULATOR can be accessed via the following link:
Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
Since posting the original article back in early January 2017, further blogs have been written which relate to specific types of races, as follows:
UK Turf Flat Races
Group and Listed Races Handicap RacesUK All Weather Races
All Weather Flat HandicapsUK National Hunt Races
Handicap Chases Handicap Hurdles As the VALUE CALCULATOR is very much a work in progress project, I will be adding additional articles on a regular basis, which will include updates on the above topics, plus new ideas for using the methodology as further analysis is completed.I hope that readers have found these articles of interest.
Comments (6)
mc1000
Jul 11th, 2017 at 04:33
Hi Rob.. I was just on my monthly visit and catching up on my regular contacts when it occurred to me that your value calculator may well be similar to something I used to use when working out my own tissue odds for specific races. When you use your value calculator do you effectively get a set of tissue odds or does the end result come to a points based decision which can or could be converted to a set of odds. ?I may have left the site before you reply so please forgive the absence of any immeditae response.. Mike mc1000
mc1000
Jul 11th, 2017 at 04:48
Sorry Rob... I just spotted the link to the original article old age does not come alone I think I have worked it out now and it is similar to something I have used before but gave up on because mine was to time comsuming as I went into to many factors. Maybe I will give it another try and attempt to keep it on a more practical level once I start using excel I tend to get carried away. All the best and for sure hope you manage to pick up a 'sorcerers apprentice' soon...lol... maybe I will drop you a line when I get into the Irish NH scene in a bit more depth. Mike
Robmull
Jul 11th, 2017 at 04:56
Hi Mike,
Good to hear from you again.
It is a shame that you can't get on the site that often.
To answer your question, each horse in the race is awarded points based on their Racing Post Postdata profile, then all the points awarded to all the runners in the race are added together.
The points for each runner is then divided by the total points awarded to all horses in the race and the result is then multiplied by 100 to produce the percentage chance of each runner winning the race.
These percentages are then compared against the best odds available from the bookmakers via Oddschecker, which are also turned into percentages.
The VC percentage is then divided by the best odds bookmaker's percentage and all runners that achieve a result of 1.00 or greater for this calculation are considered as potential value selections, albeit I generally only back the 2 qualifiers (with scores greater than 1.00) who are shortest in the betting, as historic results analysis suggests that these tend to be the most profitable to follow in the long term.
Hope this clarifies the position.
All the best and hopefully speak again soon.
Rob.
Robmull
Jul 11th, 2017 at 05:05
No problem Mike.
Just to let you know that I do all the calculations manually - keeps my old brain ticking over and with practice, I can complete the task for a 20 runner race in around 12 minutes (pro rata for smaller/larger fields) so not overly time consuming, especially as I don't have to wade through trends and form, etc to make a selection, just use the VC and back the 2 shortest priced qualifiers other than for AW races.
Clearly they don't win all the time, but all race types that I have analysed to date are showing a profit in the long term.
Cheers,
Rob.
mc1000
Jul 11th, 2017 at 05:22
Thanks for quick response Rob most helpful and has clarified a few things I am trying not to close the page by mistake otherwise I cannot re-use the code...lol. Twenty minutes per race is pretty impressive as it would take me half an hour just typing them into my excel sheet. Maybe we can have a match up someday if we can agree a race to play with for me it would have to be NH. I am sure it will be interesting as even stats are open to interpretation even if it is the just the value that we assess there worth at. ?
Robmull
Jul 11th, 2017 at 06:52
Mike,
More than happy to join forces on a couple of NH races, but I have to concentrate on Flat racing until November, as there are only so many hours in the day that I can spare to horse racing.
We could have a bash at a couple of races each day at the Open Festival at Cheltenham in November - perhaps set up a joint discussion thread on the OLBG forum if you fancy the challenge?
Let me know what you think next time you sign in to the site.
All the best.
Rob.
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