The John Smiths Cup is a class 2 handicap for horses aged 3 or older, it's run at York racecourse over a trip of 1 mile 2 furlongs and 56 yards.

The last 10 winners of the race were as follows -

2016 - Educate, aged 7, carried 9-08, trained by Ismail Mohammed & ridden by Thomas Brown

2015 - Master Carpenter, aged 4, carried 9-04, trained by Rod Millman & ridden by Philip Makin

2014 - Faraaj, aged 5, carried 9-11, trained by Roger Varian & ridden by Andrea Atzeni

2013 - Danchai, aged 4, carried 8-11, trained by William Haggis & ridden by Andrea Atzeni

2012 - Kings Warrior, aged 5, carried 8-09, trained by Peter Chapple Hyam & ridden by Robert Havlin

2011 - Green Destiny, aged 4, carried 8-10, trained by William Haggis & ridden by Adam Beschizza

2010 - Wigmore Hall, aged 3, carried 8-02, trained by Michael Bell & ridden by Martin Lane

2009 - Sirvino, aged 4, carried 8-08, trained by David Barron & ridden by Neil Brown

2008 - Flying Clarets, aged 5, carried 8-12, trained by Richard Fahey & ridden by Fredrick Tylicki

2007 - Charlie Tokyo, aged 4, carried 8-09, trained by Richard Fahey & ridden by Jamie Moriarty

7 of those winners returned at an SP of 10/1 or higher

I have looked at the last 10 runnings of the race and looked at the following trends,
    Age
    Weight
    Official Rating
    Recent Runs
    Last Time Out
    Year Runs
    Year Wins
    Distance
    Draw

Age

8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5

Weight

7 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-08 & 9-04

Official Rating

6 of the last 10 winners were rated 99+

Recent Runs

9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts

Last Run

8 of the last 10 winners had their last run in June or July

Year Runs

9 of the last 10 winners had run 2 - 4 times that year

Year Wins

6 of the last 10 winners had won that year

Distance

7 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f or further

Draw

8 of the last 10 winners had came from stall 12 or higher

What we are looking for

Aged 4 or 5

Carrying between 8-08 & 9-04

Rated 99+

1st 3 in 1 of last 2 runs

Last ran in June or July

2 - 4 runs this year

Won this year

Won over 1m 2f+

Stall 12 or higher

Other Info

Looking at the stats below, i noted the high numbers seemed prevalent and that in the twice that the going was described as heavy the race was won by Ricahard Fahey (2007 and 2008) both winners were ridden by claiming jockeys.

As a matter of fact since 2000 claiming jockeys have won the race 6 times (37.5%), so take note of trainers who have booked claimers.

Just looking at the above 10 runnings of the race, Claimers have a great record, a claimer won the race in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011, 2 claimers were placed in 2015 and another placed in 2016.

Final Update

The final decs are as follows -

1(10) 1210-6 Scarlet Dragon(21) 4 9-10 Eve Johnson Houghton - Tom Marquand 109

2(8) 413-30 Central Square(21) 5 9-8 Roger Varian - Jack Mitchell 107

3(6) 8-1571 Snoano(21) 5 9-8 Tim Easterby - David Allan 107

4(15) 6-0010 Master Carpenter(22) 6 9-6 Rod Millman - Adam McNamara(3) 107

5(9) 0-1780 Bravery(24) 4 9-5 David O'Meara - Daniel Tudhope 104

6(19) -02410 Another Touch(24) 4 9-5 Richard Fahey - Tony Hamilton 104

7(17) /164-3 Victory Bond(58) 4 9-3 William Haggas - Pat Cosgrave 102

8(11) 2-1564 Ballet Concerto(24) 4 9-3 Sir Michael Stoute - James Doyle 102

9(21) -65739 Dragon Mall(21) 4 9-2 David Simcock - Stevie Donohoe 101

10(22) 12/600 Tumbaga(21) 6 9-1 Saeed bin Suroor - Edward Greatrex(3) 100

11(18) 561210 Briardale(16) 5 9-1 James Bethell - David Nolan 100

12(5) -04802 Majeed(21) 7 9-1 David Simcock - Fergus Sweeney 100

13(16) -64239 Mistiroc(22) 6 9-0 John Quinn - Graham Lee 99

14(1) 476820 Eddystone Rock(22) 5 9-0 John Best - Robert Tart 99

15(4) -11418 Big Country(7) 4 9-0 Michael Appleby - Raymond Dawson(7) 99

16(14) 241-75 Sixties Groove(22) 4 8-13 Jeremy Noseda - Gerald Mosse 98

17(20) 316-15 UAE Prince(63) 4 8-12 Roger Varian - Andrea Atzeni 97

18(7) 372-69 Erik The Red(59) 5 8-12 Kevin Ryan - Kevin Stott 97

19(13) /1104- Garcia(301) 4 8-10 Richard Fahey - Jack Garritty 95

20(3) 200-44 Dark Red(51) 5 8-10 Ed Dunlop - Paul Mulrennan 95

21(12) 126421 Banditry(15) 5 8-10 Ian Williams (Reserve) 95

22(2) 713019 Euchen Glen(7) 4 8-8 Jim Goldie (Reserve) 93

Master Carpenter & Briardale are the only 2 horses to pass 8 of the 9 trends used, Master Carpeneter fails on the age trend and Brisrdale fails on the season runs trend, prefernce is slightly for Master Carpenter as his failed trend is a lower scorer than Briardales, and he has a claimer on board, who have a great recent record.

However, i have to put both forward in such a big race

Master Carpenter, ew @ 18/1(188Bet)

Briardale, ew @ 22/1(188Bet)

Bet directly from the OLBG Sports Betting Tips App.