The Weekend Football Betting Challenge 2016/17 - Week 3
Hello there this is Week 3 of the Weekend Football Betting Challenge, this is what I'm going to focus a lot of my efforts on OLBG this season and I'm fascinated to seeing how it works out.
This season I'm going to give it my best shot at a very similar approach with a blog every weekend when possible but this time it's not just going to be fixed to a treble, it's simply called The Weekend Football Betting Challenge
and basically each weekend I'm going to put the bets that interest me the most whether that be a first goalscorer Lucky 15, a correct score patent, anytime goalscorer win singles, a bookie bashing 10-fold or even both teams to score acca, whatever catches my punting eye I'll do it.
I must make it clear that I believe the best, most sensible policy will be to keep stakes low until the league settles down & until all the questions we have about managers, players etc start to get answer, bigger bets can come when we have the statistics & the visual proof of how everything is working out
So here it goes, throughout the season I'll be completely honest as to how confident I feel about a certain bet and what I think the bet staking levels should be but this is about offering thoughts to hopefully help & interest people, bet staking will always be a personal choice & responsibility.
The Weekend Football Betting Challenge 2016/17 - Week 2 Review
Week 2 of the Weekend Football Betting Challenge was based on the belief that Stoke City were value to get something against Manchester City but it didn't go at all to plan and Man City won 4-1, that scoreline firmly dismissing all the recommendations I'd made and giving me a blank for the weekend.
It was disappointing but I maintain that the logic behind the bets recommended was right and I believe Stoke City could have definitely got a result had Shawcross note conceded a stupid penalty when Stoke were in the process of giving Man City problems, I am certain it would have been much closer, but that's history now.
Overall after 2 weeks figures look like this :-
Total Stake = 20 pts
Total Returns = 9.33 pts
Profit/Loss = -10.67 pts
The Weekend Football Betting Challenge 2016/17 - Week 3
So here goes Week 3 and my next attempt at finding winners & making a profit, that's the aim, I've done my work & now over to the football betting gods to do their bit :-
This weekend I'm taking a different approach again with my focus on two Premier League matches this week, firstly the biggest match of the weekend which sees Tottenham vs Liverpool and then Everton vs Stoke City.
I'll start with Tottenham vs Liverpool
as that is the biggest, highest profile match of the Premier League weekend and it's the opening fixture with it kicking off at 12.30pm on Saturday.
Match Odds taken from Ladbrokes
(correct at time of writing)
Tottenham 13/10, Draw 23/10, Liverpool 2/1
Both Teams To Score YES - 8/13, NO - 5/4
Over 2.5 goals YES - 8/11, Under - Evens
For me Tottenham & Liverpool clashes have always proven to be truly fascinating & largely exciting clashes and it's a fixture that I've always looked forward to given the quality on show.
In recent years it's most definitely a fixture that Liverpool fans have been able to look forward to as Liverpool have not been beaten by Tottenham since November 28th 2012, winning 5 of the last 7 clashes.
Indeed here is the full result breakdown of Tottenham & Liverpool clashes from the previous 5 years :-
1-1 Liverpool vs Tottenham
0-0 Tottenham vs Liverpool
3-2 Liverpool vs Tottenham
0-3 Tottenham v Liverpool
4-0 Liverpool vs Tottenham
0-5 Tottenham vs Liverpool
3-2 Liverpool vs Tottenham
2-1 Tottenham vs Liverpool
0-0 Liverpool vs Tottenham
4-0 Tottenham vs Liverpool
Liverpool 5 wins, Tottenham 2 wins, 3 Draws
70% of those matches were Over 2.5 goals
50% of those matches were Over 3.5 goals
40% of those matches were Both Teams To Score
Those are the statistics from the previous 10 League clashes and they appear to massively favour Liverpool so plenty may well be tempted by the 8/13 on offer for Liverpool Double Chance ie Liverpool win or Draw.
However the big question has to be how relevant are those results with Pochettino & Klopp only in charge for the most recent matches, the two draws, and also given how both sides have started this season.
Based on how both Tottenham & Liverpool have started this season I honestly don't know what to expect in terms of a result, the 2/1 on offer for Liverpool is seriously tempting if the team that played the last 50 minutes against Arsenal turns up, however the 13/10 on offer for a Tottenham appeals greatly if the Liverpool side that lost 2-0 at Burnley turns up again.
The inconsistency of Liverpool under Klopp makes it hard to predict too much with confidence apart from they look likely to concede goals in all their matches and likely to score in most of their matches so I wouldn't personally be wanting to rush into backing Liverpool to win but the goals markets are definitely worth consideration.
However Tottenham haven't exactly looked anything special so far this season, a good 2nd 45 minutes against Everton and a hard fought 1-0 win against a poor Crystal Palace side isn't enough to convince me to wade into Tottenham at 13/10 although Tottenham will surely they can score against Liverpool's poor defence and that will boost their confidence to go for goals.
I can see this game appealing to those that like backing Result Rush ie a team to win & both teams to score, but in my mind I can't confidently split them and on that basis the DRAW appeals at 13/5 as it's the biggest priced option & looks the best value, 1-1 & 2-2 correct score options also look worth consideration at least.
Both Teams To Score is only 8/13 but that's understandable given the quality on show, I certainly can't trust Liverpool to keep a clean sheet against Tottenham's quality and Tottenham will be hard pressed to stop Liverpool scoring, especially if they get Sadio Mane back with his pace & power up front, so I think the profile of the match is solid enough & makes it worth backing Both Teams To Score here.
The 2nd match that I'm interested in this weekend is Everton vs Stoke City
as for me it's a match with a really interesting profile and one that I believe will provide plenty of entertainment & hopefully goals.
That was certainly the case last season when Stoke City claimed a remarkable 4-3 away win at Everton via brilliant goals from Shaqiri who Stoke will be hoping is back fit for them, he'll certainly improve their attacking threat and quality for sure.
The odds for this match massively favour Everton as they are 8/11 to win, Draw is 13/5 & Stoke City are a big 4/1, in my mind those prices are wrong considering Stoke City have won on their last 2 visits to Everton and won 3 of the last 4 clashes.
Now I know I got my fingers burnt by having faith in Stoke City last weekend and I'll admit it could be risky keeping faith but I felt the odds were right about Stoke last week and I feel the same again here.
The pricing up of this particular market with Everton odds on & Stoke 4/1 makes the STOKE DOUBLE CHANCE odds tempting again at 11/10, Stoke City have only lost 1 of the last 5 against Everton and won 3 of the last 4 yet they are 11/10 to either Draw or Win, for me that represents a value situation.
Last 5 Everton & Stoke City scorelines :-
0-3 Stoke vs Everton
3-4 Everton vs Stoke
2-0 Stoke vs Everton
0-1 Everton vs Stoke
1-1 Stoke vs Everton
I know Everton have plenty of quality with the likes of Lukaku, Barkley, Mirallas, Delafeou, they have the boost from their win at West Brom and of course Ronald Koeman now in charge but their home form last season was really poor, especially when odds on to win and while they look like a team that will score, they also look like a team that will concede goals too, basically I believe that Everton are too risky at 8/11 and I'd personally rather back Stoke to win or Draw at 11/10 as the main bet and have a saver on the Draw at 13/5.
Week 3 - 10 pt Weekend Betting Plan
to explain I've used a points basis for my betting plan, a point is one unit and can be whatever your own staking plans allow, ie 10p, 50p, £1 or £10, it's just a way of working out returns & monitoring them.
3 pts Tottenham vs Liverpool Both Teams To Score YES at 8/13
1.5 pts on Tottenham vs Liverpool Draw at 13/5
3 pts on Stoke City win/Draw Double Chance at 11/10
1.5 pts on Everton vs Stoke City Draw at 13/5
1 pt Double Tottenham vs Liverpool Draw & Everton vs Stoke Draw at 12/1
* using odds taken from Ladbrokes
at time of posting
So that's my focus for this challenge this week, they are the 2 matches that interest me the most and the bets from within those matches that tempt me the most, hopefully we'll have a successful weekend to get back on the profit making track
Remember you can also make use of all the fantastic range of top tips provided by OLBG members :-
Premier League Tips
Those are my own, honest views & I hope you find all of that to be interesting & useful in some way, odds quoted from Ladbrokes but remember it's your choice as the paying punter to shop around and find the best deals/offers for your betting needs.
All thoughts on this are most welcome, If you want to get involved with thoughts on selections or bets that you've placed yourself, feel free to offer your thoughts on here or to me on twitter @tbuckleythinks