Last updated Mar 1, 1:09pm     Micko70 on Cheltenham    8 Comments    1949 Views

The OLBG Mares Hurdle is a Grade 1 race for mares and also the final race of a 6 race series that started back at Wetherby in November, there were also races at Kempton (November), Cheltenham (December), Ascot (January) & Doncaster (January)The winners of the other 5 races in the series were as follows - Wetherby - La Bague Au Roi, who was sent off the 10/11 favourite.Kempton - La Bague Au Roi, who was sent off 11/4 second favourite.Cheltenham - Momella, who was sent off 7/2 joint favourite.Ascot - La Bague Au Roi, who was sent off the 8/11 favourite.Doncaster - Maria's Benefit, who was sent off the 10/11 favouriteSo, as you can see from the results from the previous 5 races, 3 were clear favourites, 1 was a joint favourite and the other was second favouriteThe race is run over 2 miles and 4 furlongs, and i have looked at the following 5 trends, Age, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Distance & Grade Form

10 Year Trends

  • Age
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 7
  • Official Rating
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 153+
  • Recent Runs
  • 9 of the last 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts
  • Distance
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further
  • Grade Form
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won/placed in a Grade 1, the other 2 were making their debuts at Grade 1 level
At present looking at the early decs for the race, we can see that 27 horses still remain in the race, only 24 are allowed to run so some will miss out, others will drop out to go to alternative targets, but looking at all 27 and the trends, we can see the followingAge, 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 7, we lose 6 on this trend, leaving 21Official Rating, 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 153+, we lose all but 1 of the remaining entriesRecent Runs, 9 of the last 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts, the only selection left passes this trendDistance, 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further, the remaining selection passes this trendGrade Form, 8 of the last 10 winners had won or placed in a Grade 1, the other 2 winners were making their Grade 1 debut, the remaining selection has already won at Grade 1 levelThe only horse to pass all of the trends in this race is Apples Jade, who is currently the 4/6 favourite, 7 of the 10 runnings of the race have been won by the favouriteIf using a points system for each trend, this is what each horse would score -

Points System

42 x Apples Jade33 x Asthuria33 x Let's Dance25 x Benie Des Dieux25 x Brillare Memento25 x La Bague Au Roi25 x Merie Devie25 x The Organist24 x Augusta Kate24 Jer's Girl18 x Lady Buttons17 x Vroum Vroum Mag16 x Cap Soleil16 x Graceful Legend16 x Karalee16 x Lagostovegas16 x Pravalaguna16 x Verdana Blue9 x Indian Stream9 x Kayf Grace9 x Midnight Jazz9 x Midnight Tour7 x Angels Antics7 x Barra7 Northern Beau0 x Dusky Legend
As we knew from the original trends, Apples Jade was the stand out selection but quite a lot of punters will not back at odds on, so looking for alternative EW selections, we can see that 2 horses come out clear as the 2nd choice on points, Asthuria & Let's DanceAsthuria can currently be backed at 33/1, but she has been chasing and holds 3 chase entries at the festival tooLet's Dance can currently be backed at 8/1You will be able to check out all the OLBG members Cheltenham Tips and take advantage of Cheltenham Free Bets by clicking the highlighted links. app review 2

Comments (8)

The Snail

 Mar 3rd, 2018 at 20:15

Cheers Micko70 I love a good trend analysis but certainly never make the time or have the dedication to to one together myself so thanks for the blog post. In the interests of finding something to oppose Apple's jade did anything else come out high in the trends?

Micko70

 Mar 3rd, 2018 at 20:46

Thanks for the reply, i will go through the race and award points and add those to the blog

The Snail

 Mar 4th, 2018 at 20:07

Cheers Micko70, great addition to the blog and some real food for thought. Lets Dance is a horse ive always liked, but even she may be a little too short with the Mullins/Ricci factor

Micko70

 Mar 4th, 2018 at 22:26

If she runs, Rich Ricci is very reluctant to run 2 in a race and if Vroum Vroum runs, she could be the 1, this is what i hate about Cheltenham, so many horses have multiple entries, if i was certain that Asthuria would run, i would back her now, but as she holds 3 chase entries, i have no idea where she will turn up

Milly83

 Mar 9th, 2018 at 11:48

Hi! Will you b3 doing point system for every race ?? Last year it was brilliant and I've been trying to find your blogs for weeks!!

Micko70

 Mar 9th, 2018 at 16:24

No i wont, there is a blog on all the handicaps, just use the drop down menus

luke225

 Mar 9th, 2018 at 21:27

Another question for you Micko. Will you be doing the trainer and jockey stats as well?

Micko70

 Mar 10th, 2018 at 07:59

Sorry luke but sadly not this year, i simply dont have the time

Please Register / Login to reply to this blog