Horse Racing Trainers To Follow In January

January Trainers

Happy New Year!  

The idea behind this blog is to try and highlight trainers that consistently perform better at certain times of the year, the theory is that trainers are creatures of habit that peak their horse at different times, target specific races/meetings, and hit seems of form in particular months.  

I have kept a record over the years as I bet each of these horses to a small level stake.  

We select the trainers using SP statistics and I look for trainers that have a combination of Level Staked Profit (LSP) and a strike rate of around 20%.  Our Profit/Loss comes from our own Early Price figures using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and the exchanges when the prices are out of line.  Using this combination we have made a profit in 5 of the 8 years with an overall +LSP at the time of writing. 

I will aim to keep a daily of performance which usually appears at the bottom of the main part of the blog (NH this month) this will show the ups and downs of the year, the frustrations and exultations, providing a light-hearted look at the day to day experience of betting on horses.  

We start the ninth year of the blog and our record to date reads:-

2013 +£54.99 LSP

2014 +£45.67 LSP

2015 +£192.53 LSP

2016 +£198.89 LSP

2017 (£123.20) LSL

2018 (£186.81) LSL

2019 +£11.83 LSP

2020 (£184.72) LSL 

The figures are starting to suggest that stats aren't holding up and if 2020 had been a normal year I would be thinking that maybe the blog had run it's course so in terms of a record-keeping and potential profit-making experiment this will be the last year if we fail to show a profit and the blog may evolve into a "who's hot and who's not" information piece.  

The mess that's been 2020 almost makes me want to write the figures off though so let's try and smash it this year and get back to the heady heights of 2015 and 16.

 

National Hunt

Having made a nice profit with the National Hunt part of the blog we have five trainers back from last year, one with a tweak and one new addition.

 

SUE SMITH (ALL)

We kick things off with the strongest performer from last January who provided +£22.70 LSP, based in West Yorkshire Mrs Smith has particularly good figures at Catterick and Uttoxeter and in each of the past 3 years her winning most month has been January.

• 2014 10/40 25% +£27.28
• 2015 8/32 25% +£31.25
• 2016 4/22 18% +£ 7.00
• 2017 7/26 27% +£11.00
• 2018 9/39 23%  +£0.70
• 2019 8/19 42% +£41.25
• 2020 8/27 30% +£12.04

We beat the SP profit by 10 points last year using early prices and the amount of bold type emphasises how consisent she has been in this month.

 

NICKY HENDERSON (HURDLERS) 

Another trainer who gave us a profit last year, albeit a small one and whilst he is considering closing the stable for a week due to some of his string running sub par, I'm not convinced.  We followed him in December and despite being "out of form" he's given us almost a £25 LSP.

• 2014     5/23     22%     +£13.44
• 2015    14/35    40%     +£10.09
• 2016     9/24     21%     +£12.73
• 2017    13/34    38%     +£11.28
• 2018    14/38    37%     +£11.70
• 2019    12/34    35%      (£10.14)
• 2020    15/50    30%     +£ 7.28

Last year we followed all his horses but on reflection we probably should have focussed on his hurdlers, even in his one recent loss making year he had a 35% strike rate and that is fantastic. 

NICK WILLIAMS (ALL)

Devon trainer who made us a small profit last year

• 2017     5/20     25%    +£16.13
• 2018     5/20     25%    +£28.50
• 2019     3/10     30%    +£ 5.00
• 2020     3/15     20%     (£ 0.63)

We might have been a little unlucky not to make more profit last year as he had 5 seconds, comes into the month with two seconds from his last four runners, lets hope he can turn some of those seconds into winners.

 

NICKY RICHARDS (NON HURDLERS)

Shrewd Greystoke trainer who usually has his best figures in December and January and whilst he hasn't been at his best in December I think it would be folly to desert him this month.

• 2016     2/10     20%     +£1.00
• 2017     3/17     18%     +£10.88
• 2018     2/11     18%     +£1.00
• 2019     5/14     33%     +£1.53
• 2020     3/13     23%      +£5.75

Over the 5 years he's running at 20% and has an LSP each year which is just what we're looking for.

 

ANTHONY HONEYBALL (ALL)

Dorset trainer, another back from last year and last month.

• 2017     3/15    20%    (£5.75)
• 2018     7/14    50%   +£11.39
• 2019     2/3      67%   +£ 0.86
• 2020     8/18    44%    +£ 1.56

Fantastic strike rate and our own figures were +£6.55 last season, hopefully, more of the same this year. 

OLLY MURPHY (ALL)

The only trainer not in the blog last year, he's quickly climbed the ranks and finished 14th on the money list last season.

• 2018     10/31     32%     +£19.75
• 2019      8/43      19%      (£10.56)
• 2020     15/39     38%     +£29.68

Maybe risky with just 3 years figures to call on, if we can match 2018 or 2020 he should be a useful addition.

 

 

AW

The All Weather meetings make up a big part of the schedule in January.  Last year the AW blog performed poorly, as a result we have just two returning, just five in total the year.

 

CHARLIE APPLEBY (ALL)

Back from last year where he made a small profit, no likely to have lots of runners but expect the ones he does send out to go well.

• 2015 16/45 36% +£ 2.94
• 2016 1/4 25% (£ 1.00)
• 2017 3/4 75% +£ 3.60
• 2018 7/18 39% +£1.14
• 2019 2/9 22% (£1.75)
• 2020 5/12 42% (£0.45)

Our own figures showed a +£2.40 profit and hard to ignore with such a prolific strike rate.

 

DAVID ELSWORTH (ALL)

Back from last year where he made a small profit, doesn't have the volume of runners these days but usually makes it crack this month.

• 2017     2/13     15%    +£3.50
• 2018     4/11     36%    +£2.88
• 2019     3/10     30%    +£11.00
• 2020     1/5       20%     +£ 1.50

Hopefully a few more runners this month so we can build on the likely profit.

 

MARK JOHNSTON (4YO+)

A blog regular but new to the January blog, 3 winners from his last 6 runners so comes into the month in good form.

• 2017     4/17     24%     +£ 0.41
• 2018     3/9       33%     +£ 5.25
• 2019     4/11     36%     +£22.48
• 2020     5/25     20%      (£ 2.88)

Likely profit using early prices from 5 winners last year and he had six seconds last year so potential for more.

 

ARCHIE WATSON (ALL)

Lambourne trainer who crept up in a few blogs over the past couple of years, his first appearance in January.

• 2017     3/11     27%     +£ 5.50
• 2018     8/25     32%     +£34.13
• 2019     4/49     14%      (£27.17)
• 2020     8/46     17%     +£ 5.38

The strike rate is a bit of a worry over the past two years but 4 winners from his last 11 runners in all codes.

 

KEITH DALGLEISH (3YO'S)

Scottish trainer, we're just concentrating on his 3yo's this month.

• 2018     3/6      50%     £18.50
• 2019     1/4      25%     £  5.00
• 2020     2/8      25%     £18.50

Won't keep us too busy, hopefully, a similar result this year.

 

As always any questions, comments, observations please leave them below.  Good luck!

 

 

 

 

Results

1st - Just the one runner that lost but Richards had a 10's hurdle winner and we're backing his "non hurdlers"!!!     0/1     (£1.00)

2nd - Nothing in the afternoon but a couple of AW winners for Appleby and Johnston but again Johnston had two 3yo winners and we are on his 4yo+ runners, at least it shows the stables in form I suppose.     2/9     (£1.50)

3rd - Just a shorty from Sue Smith today, looks like we have a few more runners tomorrow.     1/4     (£2.38)

4th - Another winner for Johnston and winners for Appleby and Murphy, Watson's early form is a worry.     3/10     +£1.38

5th - No runners.

6th - Bitter sweet day, home schooling meant limited access to my comp and I missed Johnstons 16/1 winner.  Thats my excuse and I'm sticking to it!  Nice result for the blog though, hope some of you were on.     2/5     +£14.63

7th - Two winners, a bit short for a profit though.     2/6     (£2.08)

8th - Quiet day, just the one loser.     0/1     (£1.00)  

9th - Saturday's need to be profitable if we're to have a winning year and this wasn't a good start.  Seconds at 22's 16's 12's and 6's and a third that must have gone odds on in running at 14's.  You guessed it, just one winners.     1/24     (£21.00)

10th - Another quiet day but a winner so tiny loss.     1/2     (£0.16)

11th -  Good Golly, Mr Olly!!  Winners at 25's and 5's for Olly Murphy at Hereford makes Saturday a distant memory.  Ironically we win exactly what we lost on Saturday.                               2/11       +£21.00

12th - Blank day, best thing was a NR.     0/4     (£4.00)

13th - It started well with another Murphy winner but still a loss.     1/6     (£2.00)

14th - Unbelievable day, we had runners in 5 races and had winners in every race, the two races we doubled up in we had the 1st and 2nd and 1st and 4th.  Honeyball had a treble and winners for Murphy and Johnston, we also beat the SP on 4 of the 5 winners with two being backed at 7's, albeit one had a tiny r4.     5/7     +£18.05

15th - 100% record today.     1/1     +£2.75

16th - It was looking like another disappointing Saturday then Johnston bagged the last at 15/2.     2/10     +£0.88

17th - Another Johnston winner.     1/1     +£1.40

18th - Johnston is smashing it for us at the minute 2/2 from him today plus a Murphy shorty.     3/11     +£1.25

19th - Half the runners won today, short prices but still profit.     3/6     +£2.90

20th - The first losing day for almost a week.     2/10     (£6.16)

21st - Back in the winners enclosure with a double for Murphy and nice winners for Williams and Watson.     4/15     +£6.25

22nd - It's starting to feel like the good old days of the blog, winners today for Richards (11's) Johnston (13/2 & 5/2) and Watson (5/2).     4/9     +£17.00

23rd - Saturdays can make a big dent in the profits with lots of runners but another winning day (for the blog) with Hendo landind a 14's winner, I missed betting the Richards bumper runner (sigh)     3/21     +£5.00

24th - No Runners.

25th - Another cracking day with 4 winners, a second and a loser from 6 selections, I really need to get my act together though, I missed betting the Elsworth winner (again)!!!!!!!!  4/6     +£8.35

26th - Only one runner and it finished second.     0/1     (£1.00)

27th - Nice winner for Watson at 13/2, the profit keeps rolling.     1/4     +£3.50

28th - Losing day, just an Appleby odds on shot.     1/4     (£2.47)

29th - Winners for Appleby and Watson, big EP gains on the Watson winner backed at 8's returned 9/2.     2/5     +£5.44

30th - A fantastic month ends in style with Richards taking the big race at Donny at 40's, backed at 60 on the machine.  Elsworth had a 6's winner and another short one for Appleby.           3/12     +£56.28

31st - No Runners.

 

Monthly Total

54/206     26.21%     +£123.40