Can Twitter help our betting in the specials markets?

Published: Dec 3, 9:57am Last Updated: Apr 13, 1:52pm drobgod on Specials 4 Comments 2660 Views

I have no idea whether the amount of Twitter followers a celebrity has could be a useful guide for us when betting on programmes such as:

Dancing On Ice

I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here

Strictly Come Dancing

Britains Got Talent  

But after having two winning bets at 16/1 and 5/2 in the last two days, purely down to those statistics, it's certainly something I wanted to look at in more detail. 

Online betting is always available on these type of shows, and I like to compare the odds.

Before the first elimination from I'm A Celebrity I compiled a list of how many followers each participant had on Twitter (see below).

Social Media

Can the number of followers on Twitter and Instagram help us when deciding on which contestant to back?

Strictly Come Dancing Betting

Because of that fact that several of the contestants were immune from the first vote-off it meant that Annabel Giles was some 40,000 behind her nearest rival, Alfonso, in the Twitter followers stakes.

I backed Annabel on this basis to be evicted first and she duly obliged after being in the bottom two, with none other than Alfonso. 

I then tried this system again before the second elimination. 

This time with nobody immune it meant that Matthew Wright, Laila Morse and David Emanuel trailed the field in as far as their followers and I backed all three.

I'm A Celebrity Betting

Who is the most popular on social media?

I'M A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here Betting

Just to prove I'm not after-timing, this is what I posted on the forum yesterday afternoon:-

If Twitter is any indication then Matthew Wright at 4/1, Laila Morse at 14/1 and David Emanuel at 25/1 could be the three to choose from tonight.

 I'm going to play up some of my winnings from Annabel last night on those three and if it works then this is something we can look at for the remainder of the series.

If it doesn't then no harm done eh?” 

My Staking Plan

4pts Matthew Wright 4/1

2pts Laila Morse 17.00

2pts David Emanuel 25/1

I'M A Celebrity Twitter

Joey Essex - 2,261,274
Rebecca Adlington - 375,917
Kian Egan - 262,594
Lucy Pargeter - 169,085
Amy Willerton - 163,097
Steve Davis - 54,788
Alfonso Ribeiro - 53,368
Vincent Simone - 45,709
Annabel Giles - 9,000
Matthew Wright - 6,982
Laila Morse - 4,406
David Emanuel - 3,595

The feedback I've had so far suggests that Twitter may not be a good guide as it's used by younger people, 

The likes of David Emanuel and Laila Morse wouldn't be expected to have the followers a Joey Essex would have for example, but does that not carry over to the sort of people that vote during the shows?

I'm not about to put my mortgage on these three programmes just based on who is and isn't popular on Twitter, but like anything I bet on you can never have enough information.

After two winning days, I'll carry on with this system for a little longer and back both Matthew Wright 5/2 and David Emanuel 20/1 to be the third eliminated from I'm A Celebrity.

Looking ahead to X-Factor there isn't much between the four remaining contestants as far as Twitter followers go, so maybe a lay of Sam Bailey outright at odds of around 2/5 could be the way to go if we believe there is any relevance in what I've written above.

X-Factor Twitter

Luke Friend - 259,678
Nicholas McDonald - 251,749
Sam Bailey - 200,906
Rough Copy - 190,066

Strictly Come Dancing Twitter

Abbey Clancy - 252,818
Susanna Reid - 171,981
Ashley Taylor Dawson - 139,079
Sophie Ellis-Bextor - 111,215
Natalie Gumede - 93,521
Patrick Robinson - 5,396

Summary

As I've stated above this isn't an exact science and these sort of programmes are certainly not my specialist subject. 

Sometimes you stumble across something that turns out to be gold dust and on other occasions it looks good to start with, but then you realise it was just a mere coincidence.

One thing I don't like is when people/punters wait until they've had three or four winners and then decide to tell the world, yet when they lose keep it quiet. 

I'm happy to put pen to paper and share my thoughts on this subject in the hope we can all use it to have or winner or two.

If later this week we realise it's useless information then we can move on and try to think of that magic system.

Don't worry though guys because even if this system fails as long as you keep reading all the great blogs on OLBG I reckon, in the words of Derek Trotter - “This time next year, we'll be millionaires.”

If you want the latest betting information please do follow OLBG on Twitter.

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