Jun 21st, 2015, 16 comments
I have been a member of OLBG since 1st March 2005 and I am proud that my message to punters has been consistent throughout; Search for value bets. Do singles not accumulators Control your Demons. The first one has never been a struggle for me. I have a very healthy repulsive reaction when I see people using just one bookie account and not shopping around for that extra 5% of value. That extra has no effect on losers but significantly improves winnings long term. The second has never been a problem for me either. I still get a violent reaction to any OLBG threads suggesting 10 team accumulators or trying to win 50 consecutive bets @1.09. That’s not a Golden Egg, scratch the surface of that egg and its brown and smells of the farm-yard I do confess to struggling with the 3rd, fortunately not to the point of addiction and financial ruin but my Demons do get in the way of success. The Demons seemed to be determined to wreck any sensible strategies I had – they would divert my attention onto events where I had done no study and could not possibly have an “edge”, they would lead me to over-stake especially when the sensible bets went well. Then once the diversion or over staking lost I would chase the losses. The Circle of Loss. It got so bad that I took 3 years out of the gambling game, my Jim Morrison style "walk in the wilderness". I hope I have come back stronger, more disciplined and more honest with myself and others. Hopefully I can live without The Circle of Loss and focus on steady profit. Time will tell. I joined Betfair (and Flutter RIP) in 2000 and fairly quickly identified trading to be the best chance I had of funding an early retirement. Once I joined OLBG I started taking trading strategies even more seriously, using the tipping contest to feed the punter within and minimise the impact of my gambling demons. I remember that period as the start of my degree course at the University of Betfair, but never did I realise how long it would take to graduate. It makes me smile to type this but I do feel I am in my final year now! I am currently focussed on Ladies tennis trading as it is a sport that its pleasing to my eye and, in most games, has enough liquidity and volatility to keep the army of traders happy. It is a sport where trading strategies beating a 20% ROI target are possible, as I have proved to myself and others. I also trade cricket but not as successfully and have enjoyed the Premier League Darts season, I love football. I support Man Utd and England, and through the wonder of t’internet I never miss a match. But me and the "Wicked Mistress" sport are going through a tough time. Even at my most disciplined I cannot beat 10% ROI long-term so going forward it will only be a “fun” betting sport with a small and separate bank of “throw away” money. I admire anyone who makes the game pay and can prove it to me. I parted company with horse racing in March 2016 and, as my P/L proves, it was the right decision. It’s a sport that I enjoy but I have never beat 5% ROI long-term. The fact that it’s a 24 hour sport, starting at Australia and ending in America just before Australia wakes again, feeds my demons. It’s a sport where I had delusions of adequacy I am a helpful OLBGer so if any of the above feeds the reader with a desire for a chat I am happy to do so. Value. Singles. Control your Demons.
22nd June Update. Profit 417.80pts ROI 20% Bet 19 and 20 lose = -120 points I will update final figures when CoCo Wimbledon bet is settled. Currently we account for it as a loser so in the worst case the blog has hit 20% after 20 bets, comfortably exceeded the 5% ROI target. 20th June Morning Update. Profit 537.80pts ROI 27% We close the blog with two bets on 3 set …