3:17 Ripon Tips

AFLOAT has to be forgiven a poor run last time but I've watched the race back and thik she was running on the wrong part of the track. She had been running consistently well in her six races prior to this and could well be best suited by tomorrow's conditions with plenty of rain forecast and her having won on Soft Going previously. For a much more detailed write-up please see my X feed.

Improving 3-year-old, has the 3-year-old allowance today and should put that to good use. Should try to make all, player.

I'd have this horse nearer to a 7/1 shot, so at 12/1, he'd have to be my best value bet of the day. He has an excellent course record, a preference for this ground (just on the softer side of good), and a jockey upgrade, so it all stacks up well for the horse, which is from a stable whose runners are going well at the moment too. The horse needs a career best here but is only 4lb higher than the mark he absolutely hacked up off in May for his last visit to the course.

Tele Red is an 8-year-old gelding trained by K R Burke. He has 5 wins out of 37 on turf and is a two-time winner on soft ground. He last won off 76 under Brandon Wilkie (5lb claim, so 72), and Sam Feilden takes off 5lb today, so he runs off 67. Today's 1m 2f holds no fears, having won twice over today's trip. He seems to come to hand this time of year, winning twice in July and once in August. Clearly, he has a chance with conditions to suit.

Leadenhall lines up here today with a strong chance of bouncing back to form. He impressed with a battling win at Pontefract earlier in the season and has run with credit since, apart from a forgivable effort at York when things didn't go his way at the start. He's well drawn, returns to a more suitable track, and looks to have conditions in his favour. With the Easterby yard in solid form and David Allan back aboard, he's primed to run a big race off a fair mark.

Risky tip so just a small each-way chance. He meets some younger and possibly more progressive rivals today but he's been running well. Good effort over a shorter distance last time, this step back up in trip possibly more suitable.

Swift Salian is having his first attempt at this distance so needs to prove himself at this trip but, he won and stayed on well over 1m1f two runs back , that offers some hope this trip will be fine. Ground conditions shouldn't be a problem , rating looks fair. It's not a bad draw for the horse.