4:43 Redcar Tips

Archduke Ferdinand is interesting here, returning to a track where he has a perfect record. He won this race last season at Redcar Racecourse over 6f by 1L off a mark of 85 and followed that with several respectable efforts in stronger Class 3 and Class 2 handicaps. This season he has had two runs since returning from a 231-day break and has been well beaten on both occasions at Musselburgh Racecourse. However, there are excuses to be made, as he was not racing on the favoured part of the track either time and never really looked positioned to challenge. The key point is that his mark has now dropped to 79, leaving him 6 lb lower than when winning this race last year. Given he has already shown he can be competitive in stronger company than this, that reduction in the weights could prove significant. Course form is another major positive, with a perfect 2-from-2 record at Redcar, suggesting the track clearly suits his style of racing. Returning to a favoured venue and now on a reduced mark, Archduke Ferdinand looks capable of bouncing back to form.

Badri is top weight here but looks well capable of being competitive now, dropping into Class 4 company. Last time out at Windsor Racecourse he finished 6th, beaten 3¼L in a Class 3 Handicap over 6f off 87, but the run can be marked up as he never really found room to challenge and was only very lightly ridden once his chance had gone. His overall profile suggests he is better than this grade. Last season he won a Class 3 Handicap at Windsor off 90 and later placed in a Class 2 Handicap at Pontefract Racecourse off 89. He also ran well again in stronger company when placed in another Class 2 Handicap back at Windsor off 96, showing he can remain competitive from much higher marks than this. Returning to a Class 4 Handicap represents a notable ease in grade, and if he gets the gaps at the right time, Badri looks capable of being much closer at the finish.

But below form back on turf, beaten 5L in a handicap at Ascot last time. Effective at 6f and acts on a sound surface. Beat Winged Messenger in July last year by half a length and is now 11 lbs better off with him. Can't understand the betting forecast of 7/2 and 10/1. Dicko has had a couple of runs; Winged is having a seasonal debut. Nap today.