7:00 Newcastle Tips

The nearly man on several runs since returning to the all-weather, but Mister Sky Blue may finally be ready to take care of a race of this calibre from what is clearly a workable handicap mark.

Yet to win from 15 starts but has placed in all of the last three races, which have all been over this course and distance, finishing 2nd the last twice. Holds every chance.

Instant Bond had a bad run last time out, but his prior form is workable here. He has gained a course placing over this 6f distance, so a bounce back can be possible on this all-weather track. The mark of 54 looks fair, and I expect a good stalking run with a late pounce from a wide draw if the pace is strong enough.

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Was forced to race wide Lto@ Wolverhampton so that run can be forgotten and this C/D winner put up 2 very good efforts here @ Newcastle prior to that run. Therefore, with good course form/better draw we should expect better showing, good jockey retains ride and in hands of a shrewd trainer, making current 11/1 solid Ew value in the race.

The trainer has had 2 winners and a further 3 seconds (all beaten less than a length) in his last 12 runners. I like the jockey switch here to one who has been riding this course well lately. The horse hasn't been beaten far in two of her last three runs, which were all over C&D and off the same mark. The trainer is in slightly better form now, and with the different jockey, I think she can go even closer this time. The 10/1 rates as the E/W value in the race.

A bit hopeful, but a chance is taken on Bernie The Bear. Alex Jary claims 3 lb from a basement mark of OR46 anyway. Has won 3 and placed on 12 other occasions in 31 AW starts. Runs for Linda Perratt, having returned to action over course and distance last time, running prominently for a long way in the first outing for many months. Can build on that. Winner over C&D for Richard Fahey off OR50 in October 2023. Has gone close on numerous occasions for this yard. 25-1 may be a value bet in a 13-runner Class 6 handicap.

Lady Sonata hasn’t shown much so far and looked stretched by the longer trip last time. She’s back in handicap company now and has dropped in distance, which might help. She’s on a basement mark and still unexposed, so while risky, a better run is not out of the question if the race falls her way.