2:20 Cheltenham Tips

This looks like a pretty average Paddy Power chase judged on previous runnings, and the one that stands out to me is Vincenzo. He jumps a bit to the left, which will be fine around Cheltenham, and his trainer Sam Thomas is going at an astonishing 70% strike rate with his runners.

Comes in here 1 lb higher than winning last year. Appears aimed at this and returned with satisfactory effort having been beaten 21L in the same race last year as opposed to 4.75L this time. Expected to come on for the run. Soft ground shouldn't be an issue having won and placed on it in races of this calibre previously. Jagwar obviously a massive threat and they seem to think of him as a Ryanair horse down the line. However, top weight first time out is obviously a big ask and 9/12 winners had run within the last 35 days. Would expect him to win something at this level before progressing, however. 10/12 winners rated 139+. Money for the Skelton horses is worth noting. They obviously want to win this having 3 entered. However, it would take a big run from any of them here. Hoe Joly Smoke worth keeping an eye on at this trip.

The lightly raced 7yo has every chance in this £91K handicap chase. He has 2 wins from 6 over fences and placed twice. Back from a six month break with a big run at this track three weeks ago, finishing a close 3rd of 18 in a quality £52K handicap. He should be a little sharper now and is only 2lb higher in the weights. Just two previous runs on soft ground, both were winning runs, and there is a lot of rain in the forecast.

In the last twenty runnings of this race, no horse has come back and defended their crown. So the Paul Nichols-trained Il Ridoto appears to have it all to do to win this. Splash of Ginger won this race back in 2017 off a mark of one hundred and thirty-four, which is the same mark the Alan King-trained Es Perfecto races off. He won his first race of last season, and his final race saw him finish fourth in the Golden Millar Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Es Perfecto has a good record on seasonal reappearances, winning twice and finishing no worse than fourth since moving to the Alan King yard about six years ago. His two seasonal returning wins came on good to soft ground, so conditions should be to his liking. All in all, he looks a live each-way shout.

This horse is the rank outsider but there's plenty of clues that he's anything but. At this time last year, he was 2nd in a class 1 race at Ascot where the other 4 in the top 5 have all won since, the winner off a 6lb higher mark in his next race. Issar DAiry is 1lb lower now and that effort was as a 6yo so he's likely to have come on since then. He was running ok on seasonal debut last time out before blowing up but will strip fitter now and his only other run here was when only headed at the final fence before finishing 2nd. A top 4 finish doesn't seem at unlikley as the bookies would have us believe on this evidence.