Loukaini Profile
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Loukaini's Tips History Show Tip Comments:
25 November 2014
Apoel Nicosia v Barcelona Barcelona 50 Win @ 1.29 Win 14 

"Apoel is out of the CL next stage but still have a chance for the third spot.

Barcelona need to win this game if they want to win the group and I think the @1.29 worth backing.

Apoel has scored just 1 goal from their 4 games I don't think they'll get too many chances in this game to add to their tally.

Barcelona straggled in the home game against Apoel and only won 1-0, I think they'll be smarter now in the return leg they'll not be underestimating Apoel. "

CSKA Moscow v Roma Roma - Draw (Half Time / Full Time) 50 Win @ 17 Win 800 

"CSKA has proven to be slow starters this season in the CL; they have conceded 6 goals in the opening 30' minutes and 8 in the first half, in their 4 games. But they like to score a late goal or two for themselves.

Roma has conceded 3 goals in the last 9' minutes and 4 in the last 30' in the CL this season.

This game I think it will be a draw and worth having a punt on the 2/X. "

Man City v Bayern Munich Bayern Munich 50 Win @ 2.1 Lose (50)

"I think @2.1 is an excellent price.
Yes Bayern has already won the group and don't need to get any more points from their 2 remaining fixtures, but this is an opportunity for Bayern to knock out Man City from the rest of the competition.

Bayern are only 6 games away from the Christmas brake and I don't think they'll field a totally weakened side.

Man City are in poor form and have unavailable players for this one, most notably Yaya Toure & Fernandinho through suspensions and David Silva is a major risk because of injury. "

Man City v Bayern Munich Bayern Munich #3-0 (Correct Score) 50 Win @ 23 Lose (50)

"In a game where City has to win I think it's quite possible they'll leave with absolutely nothing.

This is Bayern's chance to knock out of the competition one of the tournament favourites (or maybe pre-tournament).

City's only chance is Aguero but I think even he might find it tough tonight.

Bayern don't concede goals, they have only allowed 3 in 12 matches in Bundesliga! and only 1 from 4 games in the CL. "

Man City v Bayern Munich Bayern Munich - Bayern Munich (Half Time / Full Time) 50 Win @ 3.3 Lose (50)

"Bayern are in the proverbial league of their won.
Man City have Yaya Toure out as well as Fernandinho through suspensions and most probably David Silva can't make it.

Bayern will be up for this even though they have won the group, they'll want to knock out Man City for sure.

I don't think Man City can keep a clean sheet for 45' in this one. But I can see Bayern keeping a clean sheet for the whole 90'. "

PSG v Ajax Ajax (Asian Hcap) 1.5 (AH) 50 Win @ 1.95 Lose (50)

"I think Ajax will not be as easy as the odds suggest. Yes PSG looks to have hit some good form but Ajax I think will not be a pushover.

The first leg finished 1-1 and PSG has not covered this handicap +1.5 in any of their 4 CL games.

Ajax is scoring for fun in Holland and I think they'll manage to get on the score sheet tonight. Maybe 2-1 to PSG who still need to win the group.

I think Ajax will be ecstatic with a point in this one and so they'll look to defend and hit in the counter attack. "

Sporting v NK Maribor Draw - Sporting (Half Time / Full Time) 50 Win @ 4.33 Lose (50)

"Maribor can be tough to brake down, they could spring a surprise in this one. I think if Sporting does get the win it will not be as easy as the odds suggest.

Sporting has scored 8 goals in their 4 CL games and 6 have come in the second 45'. While Maribor has conceded 9 and 6 of them in the second half. "

Sporting v NK Maribor NK Maribor (Asian Hcap) 1.5 (AH) 50 Win @ 2.04 Lose (50)

"I think Maribor worth backing in the +1.5 handicap.
If you exclude that 6-0 thrashing away to Chelsea they have three 1-1 draws in the CL including the home game against Chelsea last time out.

Sporting might win the game but I don't think it will be by 2 goals. Maribor can be hard to brake down and in a game where both teams need a positive result I think the draw will not be too far away.

SubTotal 514 
24 November 2014
Aston Villa v Southampton Under (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.8 Win 40 

"Southampton might have scored 26 goals in total but only 6 of them where scored away from home, and they have only conceded 4 away goals from their 5 games.

Villa has scored 3 and conceded 8 from their 5 home games.

A chilly night tonight and I think we will not see more than 2 goals. "

Aston Villa v Southampton Draw 50 Win @ 4 Win 150 

"I think Villa can get a draw in this one. They must have worked hard during the international brake, especially in defence, because they have problems in scoring goals and without the players to score they can't find an easy solution to that problem; while working tactically you can tighten up your defenses.

Southampton full of confidence they might be expecting to win this, but if Villa can put some doubts in Soton's minds they could get a positive result.

The brake might have put a bit of a stop to the Southampton train and need to get back on match sharpness.

Soton doesn't score that many goals away from home only 6 from their 5 games. "

SubTotal 190 
23 November 2014
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Pastor Maldonado (Points Finish) 50 Win @ 8 Lose (50)

"He picked-up his first points of the season a couple of races back in the US GP with a 9th place.

Last time out in Brazil he finished 12th having started 16th on the grid. In general after a tough start to the season he has improved markedly and every single time he finished the race he has finished higher than his grid position and some times much higher.

I think even the bookies give him a good chance from back there to be @8 when he could very justifiably be closer to @10. "

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Felipe Massa - Yes (Podium Finish) 50 Win @ 2.62 Win 81 

"I think Massa's experience has to shine in this race and outscore his teammate.

He has raised his game in the last couple of races and I think he is primed to have a top race today.

While at the same time Bottas has dropped the ball in the last couple GPs. "

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Felipe Massa (Fastest Lap) 50 Win @ 19 Lose (50)

"Massa has considerably raised his game the last two races and I expect another top performance from him.

The two Mercedes cars are clearly the fastest of all, but in the later parts of the race when usually the fastest lap is made I think the Mercedes cars focus will be elsewhere and the last thing they'll be thinking is the fastest lap, as they will not want to take risks.

Massa was marginally slower than his teammate in qualifying and so the 4th fastest car. I think in the race he can record the fastest lap in the closing stages. "

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Nico Rosberg (Win Race) 50 Win @ 2.38 Lose (50)

"I think Nico Rosberg will win because he has to be totally committed to finish higher than Hamilton; while Lewis Hamilton has to be cautious and can afford to finish just behind Nico, if Nico wins, and still win the championship.

I think Nico has to qualify on pole position too as he has to take risks I think it will work in his favour. While Lewis even though he says he will give his all to win I believe it's sill to risk accidents if he can let Nico get pole and the win if Lewis can take it easy in second place and still win the championship "

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Without Mercedes GP Felipe Massa 50 Win @ 3 Win 100 

"I'm going for Massa because he has a relatively good record in Abu Dhabi compared to Bottas.

He will definitely try to pass in the first couple of laps but if he can't there will be possibly 3 pit stops and he can take advantage there. "

Crystal Palace v Liverpool Crystal Palace 50 Win @ 4.33 Win 167 

"Liverpool will be happy that they play away from home today but Palace also will be happy that they are at home and will have massive support from the stands and against Liverpool they have to raise their game.

Liverpool will have to shuffle the pack with all the injuries and under-performers.

If Palace can have a great start in the game and put some doubts in their opponents heads, I can see an already lucking in confidence Liverpool even more pressurized and not playing well; in which case Crystal Palace can get the win. "

Hull v Tottenham Hull 50 Win @ 3.6 Lose (50)

"I'm going for a Hull win even though the odds are not that great I think the bookies like me fancy Hull's chances in this one.

Spurs will be without a couple of important players Kyle Naughton is suspended and Andros Townsend is not expected to have recovered from an ankle injury. Pochettino has also said several unnamed players are fitness doubts.

Hull will probably have Michael Dawson, Nikica Jelavic and Curtis Davies available and with the likes of Hernandez and Diame also in the team they can cause problems to this Spurs team. "

Levante v Valencia Valencia (Asian Hcap) -0.75 (AH) 50 Win @ 2.07 Lose (50)

"Levante has played 5 home games this season and have scored just 2 goals while conceded 15! that's an average of 3 goals conceded in every home game.

Valencia are pushing at the top of the table and can go just 3 points behind league leaders Real Madrid if they win this one today. "

VfB Stuttgart v Augsburg Augsburg (Asian Hcap) 0.25 (AH) 50 Win @ 1.92 Win 46 

"Augsburg has a very bad away record as they have 1W 5L in away games. They have to see this game against Stuttgart who are bottom of the table as the perfect chance to get their 2nd away win, and jump from 10th to 6th place on the table.

Stuttgart have lost their latest two games by not scoring and conceding 6 goals.

Augsburg are coming into this one on the back of 3-0 win against Paderborn.

I think Augsburg can win this game but I can't see them losing it. "

SubTotal 144 
22 November 2014
Arsenal v Man Utd Arsenal 50 Win @ 2.1 Lose (50)

"Man Utd will be playing a makeshift defence and I can't see them stopping the attacking threats of Arsenal.

I'm not sure if Arsenal can keep a clean sheet, but I just think this will be a case where Arsenal will outscore Man Utd. "

Arsenal v Man Utd Over (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.7 Win 35 

"A very decent bet @1.7 to see more than 2 goals in this game.

With all the attacking talent on show from both teams and their vulnerabilities at the back especially from Man Utd, we have to expect more than 2 goals here. "

Arsenal v Man Utd Draw - Arsenal (Half Time / Full Time) 50 Win @ 5.75 Lose (50)

"Arsenal has played 5 home league games and has never lead at half time, only losing once.

Man Utd has also played 5 away league games and was leading at half time once and was losing once.

I think Arsenal will win this match but the win will come in the second half where they have scored 80% of their home goals and Man Utd has conceded 67% of their away goals against them. "

Arsenal v Man Utd Danny Welbeck (First Goalscorer) 50 Win @ 7 Lose (50)

"Arsenal will be lacking in attacking height in this game, as Man Utd have tall defenders but Arsenal relatively short attackers.

I think Arsenal will be looking to create combinations with the ball on the ground and Welbeck profiting.

Welbeck will be a man possessed in this one, wanting to prove to Van Gaal he made a mistake selling him. "

Chelsea v West Brom Chelsea 50 Win @ 1.25 Win 12 

"It will be an absolute massive upset if West Brom can take anything from this game. Chelsea's attack will decide the game and normally should be without too much problems. Very short odds but I think they should be even shorter. The @1.25 I think represents a little bit of value in this match. "

Everton v West Ham West Ham 50 Win Bet of the Day @ 5 Lose (50)

"I think West Ham are overpriced here and its definitely worth a punt @5 to win this match.

Everton is undefeated in 4 games 2W 2D but will need to shuffle the team around with all their injuries they have and players doubtful of their fitness. Major factor will be if Leighton Baines is fit enough to play.

West Ham flying high in 4th spot and undefeated in 5 games 3W 2D. Their confidence and mood has to be close to an all-time high at the moment.

West Ham are a major attacking threat at the moment and I think with all the shuffling that Everton will be forced to make, West Ham can land the win. "

Everton v West Ham Over (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.75 Win 38 

"These two teams strengths is with their attacking play, and have weaknesses in their defenses. I think West Ham can win this game and I have backed them to do so. "

Everton v West Ham Draw - West Ham (Half Time / Full Time) 50 Win @ 11.5 Lose (50)

"I think West Ham can spring a mini surprise in this game. Their mood has to be great flying high in 4th spot on the table and have to be confident without much to prove away to Everton where most expect an Everton win or at max a draw.

Everton concede the majority of goals against them at home in the second half, while West Ham score the majority of their away goals in the second half.

If like me you believe that West Ham can win this game then the X/2 is a great bet @11.5 "

Leicester v Sunderland Sunderland (Asian Hcap) 0.5 (AH) 50 Win @ 1.92 Win 46 

"Leicester are under pressure now that they are in the relegation spots following their 4 consecutive defeats without even scoring a single goal.

Sunderland will be confident following their 4 points from their last 2 games, and win see this as a perfect opportunity to grab some vital away points. "

Newcastle v QPR Draw #2-2 (Correct Score) 50 Win @ 18 Lose (50)

"I don't think this game will be as straight forward as many expect a Newcastle win. Just after the international brake we can't be very confident of anything.

QPR has to do a lot better in away games as they have lost all their 5 games played, only scored 2 and conceded 14 goals. Harry Redknapp will have worked with the team during the brake and I trust he should have improved a few things during training.

Newcastle will be confident and will believe they have to win this fixture, that could work against them as they could be over confident against a team that has nothing to lose (they can't do any worse) and will have a real good go. "

SubTotal (169)
21 November 2014
Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol Under (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.65 Lose (50)

"Athletic Bilbao has played 5 home league games this season and have scored only 5 goals while impressively conceded just 2 goals!

Similarly from Espaniol's 5 away games they have scored only 3 away goals and conceded 5.

These stats point to a low scoring game. "

Brentford v Fulham Over (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.67 Win 34 

"I find it very tough to predict the outcome of this game, but one thing that is easy to predict with confidence is that they should be goals in this one.

Especially looking in their most recent games these two have been involved in some free scoring games.

Brentford's last 4 games have all been over 2.5, total goals where... 4,3,4,5.

Fulham's last 5 games have all been over 2.5, total goals where... 6,3,6,4,4. "

Brentford v Fulham Yes (Both Teams to Score) (BTTS) 50 Win @ 1.6 Win 30 

"Tough match to predict with much confidence but I'm quite confident that both teams will score.

In recent games they have been involved in games where they score plenty but both concede plenty too.

Both are in an upward curve in their form and they should be confident in their game, which should result in both teams getting on the score-sheet again. "

Brentford v Fulham 2nd Half (Half with Most Goals) 50 Win @ 2 Win 50 

"In this home/away combination both teams score most of their goals in the second half and also concede the majority of their goals in the second half.

This game should have plenty of goals and the stats are firmly on second half having the most goals scored. "

Brentford v Fulham Fulham - No (Clean Sheet) 50 Win @ 1.2 Win 10 

"Brentford has failed to score in 2 of their 8 home games so that's 25% failed to score in home games, but they've scored 8 goals from their last 3 games overall; I can't see them failing to score against Fulham who is doing great going forwards but have big problems when defending.

Fulham has played 8 away league games and has not kept a single clean sheet; they have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 away games. It's highly unlikely that they'll manage their first clean sheet against free-scoring Brentford. "

Cardiff v Reading Cardiff 50 Win @ 2.25 Win 62 

"Cardiff has won their last 4 home matches and Reading has lost their last 3 away and are without a win from their last 5 away from home.

Reading have played 8 games away from home and have scored just 5 goals while conceding 16. Their away record is 1W 2D 5L.

Cardiff from their 8 home games have 6W 0D 2L scored 16 and conceded 10. They heavily depend on their home games to get them points and are fancied to get another home win in this one. "

Cardiff v Reading Over (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.97 Win 49 

"4 of Cardiff's last 6 games have been over 2.5 goals. Reading had over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7!

I think Cardiff might score 3 by themselves but I wouldn't exclude an away goal also. I think the Over 2.5 goals has a better chance than the odds suggest and I think it's a nice value bet. "

Cardiff v Reading Cardiff & Yes (Result and BTTS) (Result + BTTS) 50 Win @ 4.33 Win 166 

"Cardiff has only kept 1 clean sheet at home from their 8 games played, and that clean sheet was in their 2nd home game of the season back in August.

I think it will be tough for Reading to win the game but they are in need of away goals just to give them some confidence and I think the manager will be asking that from his players, and the result might come; they can't get better away results if they can't score. "

SubTotal 351 
20 November 2014
Fluminense v Chapecoense Fluminense 50 Win @ 1.44 Lose (50)

"Anything other than a home win in this one will be big surprise.

Fluminense are undefeated in their last 15 home matches in serie A. And need to push for a Copa Libertadores spot.

Chapecoense have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches in Serie A. And have lost their last 3 without scoring a single goal. "

Fluminense v Chapecoense Fluminense - Fluminense (Half Time / Full Time) 50 Win @ 2.04 Lose (50)

"I think the home win is very close to be a banker. The question is can they take the lead from the first half? I think they can. They have scored 34 home goals and 16 have been in the first half from their 17 home matches.

While Chapecoense has conceded 28 away goals (only scored 8) 11 of those have been conceded in the first half.

Fluminense will be extremely keen to take the lead by half time and I think they'll create enough chances to score at least one before the end of the first 45'. "

Gremio v Cruzeiro Gremio 50 Win @ 2.04 Lose (50)

"Gremio 6th on the table they have very strong home record (12W 3D 2L) they have won their last 3 at home only conceding 1 goal and scored 6. Gremio has only conceded 8 home goals from all their 17 home games in Serie A.

Cruzeiro are very near to become champions and they only need a few more points to make sure of of it.

Cruzeiro will have a few absentees for this match most notably top scorer Marcelo Moreno who cannot play against his parent club. I think they'll be happy with a draw.

Gremio is in touching distance of the Copa Libertadores places and as this one is the penultimate home game until the end of the season, they'll be pushing for all three points. Plus they'll be even extra motivated to spoil Cruzeiro's party. "

SubTotal (150)
19 November 2014
Atletico Paranaense v Santos Draw 50 Win @ 3.3 Win 115 

"As their league positions show there is not much between them. Atletico PR 10th and Santos 9th.

Santos in extremely bad form and has lost last three games scoring just 1 goal.

Atletico PR also lost their last game, at home against 12th Sport Recife 0-1.

Atletico PR in their first 19 games they had 7 draws, in the following 15 games still without a draw, and I think this is the one.

I think this is a home win or a draw and as I don't think there is much between them I'm going for the draw. "

Botafogo v Figueirense Botafogo 50 Win @ 2.04 Lose (50)

"This is Botafogo's penultimate home fixture, so it's an absolute must win game against Figueirense who are only 4 points from safety, and direct opponent to beat the drop.

Figueirense managed a 1-1 away draw last time out, that result put an end to a losing streak of 6 consecutive away games.

Figueirense has only scored 11 away goals and conceded 26 from their 17 away fixtures.

Botafogo has scored 24 home goals and conceded 18 from their 17 home games.

Do or die game for Botafogo. "

Botafogo v Figueirense Botafogo #1-0 (Correct Score) 50 Win @ 7 Lose (50)

"Do or die game for Botafogo. After this one they only have 1 more home game so this is even more must win.

Figueirense has only scored 11 away goals this season and in such a massive game for Botafogo who are no strangers to a clean sheet themselves I think Figueirense will fail to score.

The 1-0 result is quite popular from this home/away combination. Meaning Botafogo has won plenty of home games by 1-0 and Figueirense has lost plenty of away games by 1-0. "

Criciuma v Bahia Draw 50 Win @ 3.5 Lose (50)

"To me this game screams draw. Bottom of the table Cruciuma against 2nd from bottom Bahia. With only 4 games to the end of the season both are in dire need for points.

Cruciuma are 7 points from safety but with an impossible goal deference they need at least 8 points. So this game tonight is win or die.

Bahia are just 1 point better than Cruciuma so similarly win or die.

I think if someone gets a lead, then they'll play the biggest park the bus you've ever seen, and I can't trust any of the defences to hold. "

Criciuma v Bahia Draw #0-0 (Correct Score) 50 Win @ 10 Lose (50)

"Both have to win this game, both will be scared not to make mistakes, both will at times be desperate to shoot from anywhere, both will not have clean heads.

They don't score anyway, they have the 2 worst scoring records in the league.

I have this one down as a draw and it could finish 2-2 if there is an early goal but if the 0-0 holds for a while I'll be more confident. "

Criciuma v Bahia Under (Total Goals) 2.5 50 Win @ 1.75 Win 38 

"These are the two teams in Serie A with the lowest goals scoring records. It's such a crucial game that I think nerves will be high, as well as with fear of making any mistakes. It will be a patchy, stop start game, without rhythm and hopefully ruched attacks that wont produce any goals. "

Goias v Corinthians Corinthians 50 Win @ 1.86 Win 43 

"The game I don't think it will be far from a draw result, but just because of the fact that Goias has almost nothing to play for (just making sure they a get a couple of points to be safe mathematical) and Corinthians are in a red hot battle for the Copa Libertadores places I'm leaning towards the away win in this one.

Corinthians have been undefeated in their last 6 games (4W 2D) and has won their last 2. "

Goias v Corinthians Corinthians #2-1 (Correct Score) 50 Win @ 10 Lose (50)

"I guess we could say that this game is more important for Corinthians than it is for Goias. Goias just need a couple more points from their remaining 5 games to be totally safe mathematically, because they are practically safe and look for a mid-table finish.

Corinthians need to push for a Copa Libertadores place.

Goias on home soil they are tough to beat and score enough home goals to get the results.

I think away win and BTTS is a good bet, and I don't think it will be far from the 1-2 final score. "

Vitoria v Coritiba Draw 50 Win Bet of the Day @ 3.25 Win 112 

"If they could agree to finish in a draw they would have taken it.

15th plays 16th just out of the relegation places only 1 point clear of Chapecoense who are in 17th and in the drop zone.

Chapecoense's next game is a very tough away fixture against 7th Fluminense who is undefeated in their last 15 home games.

So in this game Vitoria and Coritiba will definitely be happy with a point and move on to the next. "

SubTotal 58 
18 November 2014
Scotland v England Scotland 50 Win @ 4 Lose (50)

"Scotland have won five and drawn one of their last six home friendlies; keeping four clean sheets in these matches. England will make changes to their starting XI and I think they'll face a stern test by this in-from Scottish team. At these odds I'm backing Scotland to win. "

SubTotal (50)
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place
Tip History contains the last 45 days tips
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25/11/14 23:01:33 © 2002-2014 OLBG, part of Invendium Ltd Gamcare Gamble Aware  
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