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phil00
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Post Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2010 1:32 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Just looking at each constituency in Ireland and counting up the seats each party would be most likely to get if there was an election in the morning. Despite what the polls say, I cannot see labour tripling their seats in the Dail and Fianna Fail losing half of theirs.

I see the following happening:
- Fianna Fail will win 50 seats. Paddy Power have 4/1 on them winning between 46 and 50 seats.
- Fine Gael will win 62 seats (believe it or not). 5/1 on them winning between 61 and 65 seats. Hence they will win the most seats. 13/8 with Paddys
- Labour will win 30 seats. 6/4 that they will win over 60 lol. They are 12/1 to win 26-30.
- Sinn Fein will win 11 seats. I can see them winning a few in Dublin and in Donegal and people are going to drift to the left in the next election. 11/2 that they will win 11 or 12 with Paddy Powers
- The Greens will win one. Trevor Sergeant or Eamon Ryan will keep their seat. 6/4 on that with Paddy Power.
- People Before Profit might sneak a seat and that is at 5/4
- I think the Socialists will only win one seat as Joe Higgins will have a difficult time getting elected over either Veradkar, Lenihan or Burton. You will get around 33/10 on that with Paddy Power.
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Systemsman
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Post Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 10:25 pm     Post subject: Oldham bi-election Reply with quote

For what its worth:
Labour to win Oldham bi-election. I think 1/10 was still available this morning!!

Will the Conservatives come 2nd (its possible)?

Its home and dry believe me - Labour to win.
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Dammo Qwirky
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Post Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 10:46 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

havent the tories deliberately eased off the pedal there to give flid dems more chance?
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turfline
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Post Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 10:49 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be nice to see Labour come third, in my opinion and many others opinion, the worst Labour Goverment dressed in sheep's clothing that has ever been.

If the people of Oldham were told the Truth about this shambles of a party they would tear their membership cards up,......

It could be a better punt as to who finish's in second place, the Conservitive's are doing a soft canvas for their candidate, so to let the Liberal Democrat's into second place....of-course thats only my opinion.

Dont forget all, when Gordon Brown sold our Gold reserve's down the swannee it was on the belief that he new what he was doing,...

He sold it at $240 ...an ounce.......now $ 1,400 an ounce.....thats how bad this man was in his job................as for Blair...a man who in my opinion knows no shame.........
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Dammo Qwirky
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Post Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:01 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

turfline, the problem is so many people in this country are stupid and blame the coalition for all the cuts. so we are gonna have 3 or 4 years of them being cast as the villains for being the crime scene cleaners. miliband is even weaker than brown was and thats really something. i still cant believe anyone voted for him over his brother who i actually thought would have provided decent opposition. its laughable watching cameron pulp him in commons.

i think its a pretty safe 1-2-3 there.
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gripperrocks
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Post Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:13 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

I couldn't agree more Turf and Dammo.

I have been trying to tell my mates for years what a clown Brown was, but while it was good and their houses were worth ridiculous amounts of money then they just weren't interested.

Listening to people round here, you would think that in the North where i live that it's the law to be a Labour supporter. Everybody seems brainwashed by their parents into thinking that Margeret Thatcher was to blame for all the worlds problems. Yet history shows that what she did had to be done for this country to make all the money it did through the 80's and 90's.

All Labour ever seem to do is spend money that isn't there! :rant:

Rant over! Embarassed
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turfline
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Post Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:12 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Believe me i could write page after page of how this Last Labour Party hood-winked the British people into thinking that good times are for always, with us,................

My first visit to see an MP speak was when my Father took me see Harold Wilson speak at the Civic Hall in Dunstable Bedfordshire back in the 60's, i have shaken the hands of a few MP's but i always check to see if my watch is still attached to my wrist after i have finished shaking their hand.
Conservative i may be, but i am a realist as well, we have a long road ahead of us with a heavy load created by the last Labour Goverment, all this rubbish about , oh it was a world reccession, no no, it was incompatence of the highest level caused by Labour in their attitude, we know all.....................
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turfline
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Post Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:20 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Well there we are, a freind of mine who is a Labour supporter said we are on our way back, i pointed out to him that the Con/Libs is a coalition, so if you add the votes up you will find that the Con/Lib votes combined are well in front of the Labour total,.........................

Off-Course he did not see it that way, but it is a Fact, something that escapes most voters who thought celebrations were the order of the day on the BBC By-Election programme for Oldham last evening, i do pity the poor Labour candidate who won the seat for Oldham, she had her 15 minutes of Fame in the early hours of the morning with a small TV audience, now it's to the back benches and obscurity.
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gripperrocks
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Post Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:44 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

I would have expected Labour to win that seat anyway, due to it's location. Most people round this area (who can be bothered to vote) are Labour, I would say.

I agree with you Turf, I can't see Labour pulling back so many votes over the coalition. But how long can the coalition last? If Nick Clegg decides to stay lodged up Davey boy's bottom then I can see a lot of Lib Dems getting frustrated and maybe even challenging him? Confused
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TheEleanorRigby
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Post Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:55 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

First time poster, a little strange its in the politics thread since i signed up to this wesbite in order to focus on sports betting but nevertheless i think there is some great bets (and some value) to be had in the politics market.

Obama @ 1.7 to be the next president of the US. I think this is sensational value for the current incumbent of the White House. The strength (lack of) a Republican candidate is there for everyone to see. Their strongest candidate on paper in terms of electability is a candidate (Mitt Romney) that Republicans do not feel confident with and the chances are that he will have a long hard battle ahead to secure the Republican nomination, something i think he will achieve. If Romney is the nominee then expect a third candidate to step forward in the presidential race. This person will be representing the conservatives on the far right of the Republican party and will ultimately split the Republican vote and gift the presidency to Obama.

Romney @ 1.59 for the Republican nomination. I think this good Lay for a trade as i think he will come under more pressure in the next few weeks and see his price drift. He releases is tax return forms tomorrow (something he has come in for criticism over) and this may affect him just in the short-term when it comes to the Florida primary. Ron Paul will soon drop out of this race and is most likely to endorse Newt Gingrich, another factor that should seen Romney's price drop. I still expect him to be their nomination come November as Gingrich is a bit of an old horse (America's Ken Clarke) and comes with a lot of baggage. [/b]
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Systemsman
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Post Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:20 am     Post subject: Corby by-election Reply with quote

Corby by-election. Ok its only worth looking at out of interest as the price is soooooooo poor.

Labour to win 1/7 Ladbrokes.

Probably to be held in November.
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Systemsman
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Post Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:23 am     Post subject: US Presidential Election Winner Reply with quote

US Presidential Election Winner:

Agree with TheEleanorRigby that a bet for Barack Obama to win looks good. 8/15 still available on the net.
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