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Cycling - Tour of Qatar and Tour of Oman - February
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 7:50 am     Post subject: Cycling - Tour of Qatar and Tour of Oman - February Reply with quote

A couple of interesting pre-season warm up tours coming up in the middle-east.

First up is Tour of Qatar, which contains 5 pancake flat stages and a short team-time-trial.

The race is categorised by strong cross winds which also often come into play in the later "classics". So many teams and riders are competing to hone their skills and efforts riding at speed in such conditions.

There will be many photos of echelons forming this week in the cycling press (and also roadside camels).

Boasson Hagen, Cavendish, G Thomas, Phinney and Cancellera heading the market.

I have had a small bet on a couple of outsiders - Degenkolb at 15/1 EW and Modolo at 40/1 EW at bet365. Also available 16/1 and 50/1 win-only at BetVictor.

Modolo is interesting as he has shown some early form already beating Cavendish in a sprint stage in Tour de San Luis in Argentina. But his non-classics young Italian team may struggle to position and look after him to avoid getting behind any splits in the peloton which can easily happen in these conditions.

Stage 1 starts in a few hours time with markets at bet365 and BetVictor.

Today's forecast is for high winds so we will likely see a lot of contenders lose some time in his first stage and be out of contention.

I'll be playing the stage H2H markets through the week with bet365.
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:45 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

The wind was strong but perhaps not strong enough to really break up the field.

The break stayed away (just), and Bookwalter took the win, who I don't think was even listed for even the stage or overall win (which he now has a good chance for).

Shows how real outsiders can win in cycling.

Degenkolb is still well placed, but Modolo crashed with 60km to go and lost a lot of time (consequence of an inexperienced team as mentioned above).

Tomorrow is the team time trial and I fancy BMC at 5/2 for the win.

Some easy money is with BetVictor who are offering Phinney 11/10 H2H against Geraint Thomas (Thomas is now 3rd choice leader for Sky behind Eisel and EBH)
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:06 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

BMC winners - 5/2 nice !
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:48 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Tomorrow's stage (3) is likely to go to a bunch sprint, and we will see the fast sprinters such as Cavendish contesting it...but..
on these sorts of stages a lot can come into play. The onus is on BMC to chase down the break as Bookwalter is the leader and they have Blythe and Phinney in contention.

So we will see a break form early with all of the other teams trying to get someone in it. BMS will have to work hard to contain this and then let a manageable break go.

Then after the break is stabilised they will have to chase it down. They looked strong today and I am sure they will manage it, but the other teams won't be helping, especially if they have gotten someone in the break.

So my bet tomorrow is on terpstra for the stage win which I took earlier at 150-1 EW at PaddyPower.

Scenario is that he gets into a break (either early or late) which means OPQS won't chase (and so if BMC chase it down OPQS will be fresh to launch Cav in the mass sprint).

Might be some other H2Hs worth looking at.
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phil00
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Post Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:51 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

anything for today GJ?

Do you follow tips from anywhere online or know good people to follow?
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:33 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Phil,
Cavendish's dominance makes it a little less interesting (unless you want to sweat it out on a short-odds favourites bet!) and I've not found any H2H's I've been confident of.

I like the analysis from Mikkel Conde at http://c-cycling.blogspot.cz/ , and Manafana who used to post a lot on here now posts some excellent analysis at SBB at http://sportsbettingbloggers.wordpress.com/2013/02/02/2013-tour-of-qatar-3th-8th-february-preview-and-betting/

There are some other tipsters who offer a paid service but they don't offer much extra insight.

Thoughts are already turning to Tour Of Oman next week!
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phil00
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Post Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:03 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

cool had not heard of Conde, i went college with manafana good see hes still following the cycling.

Interesting see other thoughts as really got into the classics last seasons while in Europe, back in ireland now and more time on my hands for a few bets.
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:00 pm     Post subject: Tour of Oman Reply with quote

Qatar ended up being a a bit of a damp squib in terms of racing and gambling. Cavendish comfortable winning the last 4 stages and the overall. My nerves can't take such short price punting when so many things can go wrong over such a long race (bad enough over 6 furlongs !).

I came out with a nice profit as although my outsiders for overall Modolo and Degenkolb didn't trouble the placings, the 5/2 on BMC for stage 2 and Phinney over Thomas H2H banker paid well.

Tour of Oman starts on Monday but I have not seen any markets yet. The big names are all there - Wiggins, Froome, Contador, Evans, and the terrain is more varied with a "queen" stage with a mountain-top finish which will probably decide the race. An interesting race.

Let's hope some bookies are interested in it too!
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:08 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

prices starting to come out - stage betting on PaddyPower available

I have taken Sagan at 4-1 and Goss EW at 9-1 and Kittel EW at 8-1

PaddyPower have wrongly priced Boonen as one of the favourites.

Odds for overall now at bet365.

Rodriguez at 8-1 my pick.
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:53 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

I didn't get chance to post here but Sagan opened at 10-1 at PaddyPower (I tweeted it though).

Now in to 7/4

I took him EW, so fingers crossed for at least a place. Anyone else get a good price for him?
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gizzajob
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Post Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:16 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

also had a v small punt on Baden Cooke at 250-1 EW

Some good classics pedigree, and the aussies have some form. If have given up on Goss they may give Baden Cooke a crack at it
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