Horseracing Selections - Monday 17/9/12

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5600

3.40 Musselburgh

The Bells O Peover heads up the early bookmakers lists and the Selkirk gelding's chances have to be respected with the yard in decent form ; he is fairly weighted and acts on the going but it is somewhat offputting to me that the horse doesn't always appear to finish off his races to best effect - and at around 7/2 I have little hesitation in passing him over with little value to be had. La Bacouetteuse has been in fine form this term - visiting the winners enclosure on three occasions and is now 11 pounds higher than the first of those wins ; he too is one that commands respect but his win here last time out suggested to me that the gelding was begining to fall in to the handicappers grip and at 4/1 would not be carrying any of my cash. Grand Art & Geanie Mac are two others that are entitled to play a part but for the bet I'm plumping for the David Barron trained Sohcahtoa at a very generous looking 9/1 with Ladbrokes. A battling success here over two miles two runs ago was the gelding's first win for four years but the son of Val Royal has also ran with credit on a number of other occasions ; the 2 furlongs drop back in trip shouldn't really inconvenience him and underfoot conditions should be ideal - the soft ground at Thirsk last time was almost certainy against him as to was the class of race - back down here in a class 5 should suit him much better. The 9/1 quote represents plenty of value in my opinion ( Having expected around 6's ) and may well offer appeal to both win only and EW players.

Selection : Sohcahtoa ........ Each Way @9/1 ( Ladbrokes ) 15/2 is an acceptable alternative with Paddy Power & VC both paying ' Best Odds Guaranteed '

*** Boylesports have just put up 8/1 - not sure if they offer B.O.G but it's an acceptable price in my opinion.

Fingers Crossed

Good Luck If You Play Fingers Crossed

Monkeyboy250981 · Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:41 pm Post subject:

Executioner,
I am actually heading to Musselburgh tomorrow for the first time, I've been trying to decide between La Bacouetteuse and Sohcahtoa for this race.

Your tip probably made my decision for me of going with Sohcahtoa.

Always respect the opinon of someone who knows way more than me!
Cheers

deliusmiff · Group 1 Class Joined: 01 Feb 2008 Posts: 329

Dhaular Dhar 4.10 Muss.

As a 10 yo Dhaular Dhar runs in a claimer for the 1st time, this horse has always been an infrequent winner and his victorys have usually followed some non descript efforts. A 100 rated horse in his prime he's gradually falling down the h'cap to his current mark off 71. His last 2 wins have come in Oct last year and Sept the previous year so could be at his best in the Autumn.
Jim Goldie had a very poor summer but has picked up recently, this horse finished last twice in August before putting in a much better effort at Redcar when 6th over 1m btn just 1 1/2 lengths with next time out winners Brocture Papa Gio and Dolphin Rock just in front and in behind him. Steps up a furlong tmr and comes back to the track where he beat an in form Smarty Socks over C/D.
Has a short priced fav in Kay Gee Be to beat but at the likely prices appears as a decent EW bet against it.

FlyingBenny · Group 1 Class Joined: 09 Aug 2009 Posts: 329

Deliusmiff, as a 10 year old, they decided against running Dhaular Dhar in the nursery at 4.10, and went for the 9 furlong claimer at 4.40 instead!!! Tee hee!

But best of luck anyway!
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Even a blind pig finds an acorn from time to time....

FlyingBenny · Group 1 Class Joined: 09 Aug 2009 Posts: 329

Musselburgh 5.40 Hawdyerwheesht

Looks like Jim Goldie could be the man to follow at Musselburgh today - although with 6 entered, one of them should go close at least!

Hawdyerwheesht endured a nightmare passage over c/d a fortnight ago before finishing best of all to finish a close 3rd, with Stormy Morning just ahead in 2nd and another couple of today's runners close behind. The run caught the eye of none other than Kieren Fallon, who made him "Eyecatcher Of The Week!"

He said: "Graham Lee has been catching the eye for all the right reasons since changing codes but he will want to forget the run he got aboard Hawdyerwheesht at Musselburgh. He was trapped in on the rails there but once he finally extracted his mount, he flew like Pegasus. In the end he was only beaten a length, but would surely have won well if he hadn't been locked away for so long."

Dangers abound, not least Operateur, Lawrence Taylor's NAP of the day, Stormy Morning, Hikma and Pertuis but I'll be hoping Graham Lee makes amends this time.

Good luck if you play.
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Even a blind pig finds an acorn from time to time....

drogerson · Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:09 am Post subject:

2:50pm Brighton - LIGHT BURST

Ismail Mohammed's first season over here after relocating to Newmarket. I've been waiting for him to find some form, as he was a very good trainer over in Dubai (won 2007 Dubai Festival Top Trainer with 16 winners including 1000 Guineas and Oaks double). It looks like he's not coming in to form, with 2 wins from 5 runs this month, and 3 wins from his last 10 runners. Light Burst looked well worth an another run under penalty when springing clear to win well last time out and is quickly back in under 6lbs penalty. Doesn't seem to like it soft, which will obviously suit him on today's good-to-firm ground and Tom Queally picks up the ride. Should take all the beating today I think.

4:40pm Mussleburgh - JUST LILLE

100% win rate at this track with 2 wins from 2 runs including 1 over course and distance. Is 10lbs worse off for a 3 length defeat by Kay Gee Be and no surprise that rival is taking in plenty of money so far today. Just Lille's previous 6 wins before her last one all came in pairs and indeed only 3 of her 15 wins have come before or after another win, so I'm inclined to think her trainer Ann Duffield targets the quick wins and after winning this race last year I think she's targetted this one too. With Graham Lee on board I think this one has an good chance of making it consecutive wins in this race.
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itsfreeusee · At Stud Joined: 16 Dec 2011 Posts: 2616

My Monday Selections Fingers Crossed

let the luck gods be with me

2.10 Crocodile Bay 40/1, I think Richard Guests horses are starting to run a al little better and I think he could grab a winner or 2 today and maybe this cant be the 1st at a big price if rediscovering it's old form, the horse won 2 races on the all weather at the beginning of the year and also had 2 seconds so obviously has the ability to go well here but has shown nothing on turf in a while but back in 2010 it won on gdfm ground at Hamilton and had some other good efforts on similar ground so todays conditions will suit and if in the mood could well outrun it's odds as is quite well treated now.

2.20 Pinarius, 14/1 is the value for me as the favourite is way too short for me to back and too be honest the favourite haset exactly blown the world away and has a habit of finishing second so there is always a chance one of the other horses could be above average and have some improvement to give and Brian Meehans Pinarius should have learned alot and benefited from it's 1st 2 runs and could could improve and the small field today should be less daunting than the big field last time and I think is worth a bet against a dodgy odds on favourite.

2.40 Outlaw Tom, 12/1 NAP I think this could be Richard Guests best chance today, it ran the other day when down the field at Newcastle and quickly reappears here, but ran well here on the 4th September when finishing 5th staying on late making ground and if made more use of today earlier then could go in at a nice price, it's quite well treated now and look's ready to pop up and the trainer had a winner other day and while the irons hot might strike again here and get another winner. NAP

3.00 Autumb Shadow,13/2 interests me most here for Richard Fahey, it has stall 1 wich is a big help today and stayed on well last time over 6F and the step up to 7F should suit perfect and I can see this one winning for a yard still banging the winners in.

3.40 Courageous,6/1 has a decent draw today and has been unlucky in running a few times when maybe should have been a lot closer or won it, it started favourite last time and never got to see any daylight or get in the race but the bookies obviously expected it to go very close and it can today and Mathey Lawson is a decent claimer, the main danger is Clear Spring wich has every chance of winning again it really does but at the prices I am taking a chance with Courageous getting some look in running today and hopefully winning.

4.40 Dhaular Dhar, 12/1 look.ed sure to be winning soon after being very unlucky in running 2 runs ago at Redcar when not getting a clear run and finishing well, but then wasent so good next time at the same track but has won over course and distance on gdfm ground back in 2010 and maybe this race is the target and is very well treated now I think this could be a nice winner today for Jim Goldie

Stod180 · Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2012 2:22 pm Post subject:

Musselburgh 16:10 - Lady Poppy best price 9/2 and being backed.

Didn't quite get the 6f at York lto in the DBS Premier Yearling Stakes finishing 10th of 19 to Hototo. Ran a good race back in May when 2 3/4 l 2nd of 12 (La Sylph 6th) to Satsuma who is now rated 91 and has contested a group 2 ( Queen Mary Stakes finishing 4l 7th of 27). Also has the beating of the fav Bispham Green (finished 2nd last 3 runs seems one paced in the final furlongs each time) when they met in July, winning by 1 1/2L conceding 4lb. I think Lady Poppy will contest the early lead and stay on to win for trainer George Moore.

1. Lady Poppy
2. Bispham Green
3. La Sylph