This has the potential to be a better than average contest for a median auction maiden, it featuring one or two to have shown plenty of promise to date up against a couple of very interesting newcomers from powerful stables, one whom holds a pair of Group-race entries in the autumn.
The selection is a US-bred son of Johar who is a half brother to French Group 3-placed dual 6f 2yo winner Optari out of a smart Irish 6-7f 2yo winner (including at Listed level) who was a half sister to 6f 3yo winner Moonis out of a maiden half sister to high-class 10-12f winner (including twice at Group 3 level) Husyan, 10f 3yo winner Thabit and to the dam of very smart middle distance stayer Mubtaker, family of Scottish Rifle, Cricket Ball, Ancient Regime etc. This nicely bred colt is trained by David Lanigan and made his debut outing in a traditionally strong 7f maiden at Newmarket's July meeting earlier this month, sent off an unfancied 40/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field and was still going better than most when making progress from over two furlongs out, shaken up over a furlong out and making headway despite drifting left, keeping on nicely throughout the final furlong under a very kind ride to finish seventh behind Ghurair (beaten 5¾ lengths). It was an extremely eyecatching debut performance from this colt, particularly given the fact he was unfancied beforehand and had to come from a long way off the pace in the race itself, keeping on nicely from over a furlong out despite obvious signs of inexperience under very considerate handling (finished clear of the remainder). His yard's juveniles improve immeasurably for their initial outing, and this colt debuted in a race that always throws up several winners (fourth already won since, scoring by 9 lengths); may lack the big-race entries of one or two of his rivals, but no denying his undoubted potential and absolutely no surprise to see this son of Johar get off the mark at the second time of asking here.
The Brian Meehan-trained Frege is a US-bred daughter of Johar who is a half sister to smart French/US 6f-1m winner (including at Listed level) Dynamic Cat, dual US 7f winner Oh So Nice and French 1m 3yo winner Private Dining, out of an unraced half sister to very smart US miler Crowd Pleaser, useful 1m 3yo winner Pleasure Center and dual 12f 3yo Flat/2m hurdle winner Lively Fling out of top-class US juvenile Creaking Board. This well-bred filly made her debut outing in a 6f median auction maiden here on the turf course early last month, for which she was sent off a 7/1 chance; raced in behind the leaders until moving closer still going okay over two furlongs out, ridden and holding every chance entering the final furlong but ultimately proving one paced for pressure as she came home in fourth behind Reliant Robin (beaten 1 lengths). Her next outing saw her contest the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot over a furlong further 16 days later, going off an unfancied 50/1 chance; raced prominently from the outset once again, ridden over two furlongs out and soon outpaced as the tempo lifted, plugging on at the one pace for pressure throughout the final furlong to come home in seventh behind Tha'Ir (beaten 7¾ lengths). It was a fair enough effort under the circumstances, not really helping herself by refusing to settle fully throughout the early stages, but she was readily left behind once the race began to take shape and for all it was a Listed contest, it is a race that doesn't tend to be the strongest for the grade and has mixed abilities on show (i.e. fifth was a Group 3 winner next time but the sixth has since been turned over in lowly contests at Bath and Folkestone at this level; ninth beaten at maiden level since, too). She still commands a fair amount of respect now dropping back down to this level, and the switch to this synthetic surface may also bring about some improvement; holds several major entries this summer/autumn and although they look fanciful at this stage, no surprise to see this filly on the premises come the business end of matters here.
The Ralph Beckett-trained Day In Day Out is a son of Notnowcato who is a half brother to Italian 5f 2yo Listed winner Cocktail, 2m winner Tiffin Brown, dual German winner Fabulous Bird and 10f 3yo AW Flat/2m hurdle winner Coffee Tea Or Me, out of a maiden half sister to smart 6f-1m winner (including thrice at Listed level) Dubai's Touch, very useful 8-9f winner Wannabe Around, multiple 7f-1m winner Noble Pursuit, UK/UAE 8-11f winner Nobelist, very useful multiple UK/UAE 6-7f winner Grantley Adams, 6f 2yo winner Arabian Pride, 7f 2yo winner Mubtadi and 1m 2yo AW winner Compton Bird. This colt debuted in the same 7f maiden at Newmarket (July) earlier this month as contested by No Jet Lag, going off an unconsidered 33/1 chance; raced in behind the leaders early but steadily lost his place from halfway, ridden and making no impression from over two furlongs out as the principals began to pull clear, eventually finishing 14th of 18 behind Ghurair (beaten 18½ lengths). He shaped as though in need of more time/distance on that occasion, knowing enough to sit handy throughout the first half of the race but gradually losing touch from halfway and eventually finishing well beaten. That effort leaves him with over 12 lengths to find with the re-opposing No Jet Lag here, and there isn't any real reason to expect him to turn that deficit around on the evidence seen on that occasion; likely type for nurseries further down the line, and can only be watched unless meeting with significant and sustained pre-race market support.
The Lee Carter-trained Ropehanger is a daughter of Cockney Rebel who is a half sister to fairly useful 6-7f winner Astral Magic, dual 7f winner Miss Mujanna and 7f 2yo AW winner Zim Ho, out of a maiden half sister to Jersey Stakes winner Lots Of Magic, 5-7f winner Top Pet, 6f-1m winner Durneltor and 7f-1m AW winner Magelta. This filly made her debut outing in a 6f auction maiden at Windsor little more than a month ago, for which she was sent off a wholly unconsidered 66/1 chance; raced in behind the leaders until ridden over two furlongs out, one paced and fading entering the final furlong to eventually beat just a couple home behind Front Page News (beaten 9¼ lengths). She was by no means disgraced on that occasion, actually shaping better than her pre-race odds suggested she would, showing up well for a long way before fading inside the final furlong as though coming up short in terms of fitness. It is doubful whether she will be able to improve enough straight away to land a contest of this nature, hardly shaping as though another furlong is what she needs at this stage; best watched once again with nurseries likely to provide her with the platform on which to shine at a later date.
There are a pair of interesting newcomers in the field, headed by the Mark Johnston-trained Piper's Lass, a daughter of Singspiel who is a half sister to the useful 10-11f winner (including on the AW) Cairnsmore out of a thrice-raced maiden (finished third in the Lowther Stakes) who was a half sister to 1m winners New Deal and Savonarola and a pair of Japanese winners out of a winning daughter of a high-class French/US 6-7f winner (including at Group 3 level). This filly makes a reasonable amount of appeal on pedigree, being a half sister to connections' useful middle distance handicapper Cairnsmore and out of a lightly-raced mare who finished second on her debut before managing third at Group 2 level, and she herself was from a decent enough family. She comes from a stable that has all of a sudden clicked back into form after an indifferent period, but it is also true to say that she has been found a decent enough in which to debut; pedigree suggests this seven furlong trip on debut ought to provide her with a sufficient enough test, but will need to be above average to make a winning debut against the boys and market sure to make for interesting reading beforehand.
The other newcomer in the field is the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Mocenigo, a son of Refuse To Bend who is a half brother to Italian 6f 2yo winner/Italian 1000 Guineas third Zobenigo and Italian 1m 3yo winner Monte Pelmo, out of a very useful dual purpose performer in Italy who was a great-granddaughter of Coronation Stakes winner Roussalka, family of Oh So Sharp, Shantou etc. This colt is another that makes a fair amount of appeal on pedigree, his half sister to a 1000 Guineas third in her native Italy whilst his dam was a very useful performer under both codes and comes from the family of Oh So Sharp. The fact this son of Refuse To Bend holds entries in both the Champagne Stakes and Royal Lodge is a clear indication that he has shown up very well at home, and he hails from a stable that already has smart performers in this age category to test this colt against, including Superlative third Maxentius. The yard's youngsters have been tending to improve a touch for their initial outing so far this term, but they can get them ready to strike at the first time of asking when needed; clearly an extremely interesting newcomer given his entries, and market support beforehand for this colt would look extremely interesting. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
Palus San Marco looks worthy of an interest @6/1 on his A.W debut - looks open to improvement and shapes as though the step up to 12 furlongs should suit on the back of a back of a battling success over 1m 2f at Brighton LTO. There's no reason to doubt that he won't take to the surface and he looks sure to give a good account of himself. Arch Villain & Three Bards rate as the main dangers in my book and I would be a layer of Mizbah at his current odds of around 5/2.
Joined: 10 Apr 2012
Posts: 82
Location: District 9.
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:54 am Post subject:
Enjoying my fortnight off and will be at Yarmouth races today so if anyone is down there I'm the one in the orange t shirt with the red haired wife in tow.
I've checked out the card and I fancy these 3 to go well.
2.45 Reconsider Baby, clearly didn't go on the ground last time out and today's ground should suit the horse much better. Ran ok and claimed 3rd place first time out in a race of about equal standard to today's race. With a little improvement and the soft ground effort ignored then the horse could well finish in the money or hopefully better. 9/1 is available.
3.15 Paradise Poker Sceptre, another one for Mrs.Burke and another case of discounting the horse's last run. This one ran like it's shoelaces were tied together last time out and I'm at a loss to explain such a dismal effort. Has won over today's C and D tho and I'm a forgiving type so I'm willing to give the horse another chance at decent odds of 6/1.
4.55 Danzoe, AH my favourite Yarmouth trainer Mrs.C. Dunnett. Her big price winners always make me chuckle as they win from out the blue like a lightening bolt on a clear summers night. Only 5/1 today but the horse is down to a winning mark and again, has a C and D win. Opposition is headed by the speedy Miss Polly Plum who will probably lead but I'm hoping that Danzoe can come with a late rattle and finish my punting day with a bang. Then I'll be off to some bar in Yarmouth for Pimm's and prawn sandwich's..... Hurrah!!!
Don't know why it's saying Paradise Poker Poker Sceptre by the way, I've tried to re type it but Poker just keeps appearing in the middle, bizarro!!
2.45 Reconsider Baby, the yards horses are going ok the trainer had
a winner yesterday and the horse is tipped in the racing post and I have backed it before and think it has a good chance today, it ran really well behind Lexi The Hero, and my selection was staying on well that day then the next time flopped on ground that was too soft, so back on better ground today should be far happier and I think will go very close today.
3.15 Paradisee Spectre, if K Burke, does not get the winner in the race before then she has another good chance here or maybe both can win but this horse has won on gdfm ground more than once so conditions are ideal and one of them wins was at this track, so that's always a bonus and Martin Harley, is a really good jockey and everything look's set for a big run today.
3.50 Mubtadi, R Ffrench / I Mohammed 30% strike rate at this course, I think it said in the racing post, 1 winner from 2 rides and that's not bad maybe this is a course they will be targeting and Mubtadi, and the horse is pretty unexposed on gdfm ground only raced on it once and when it did it was behind some better than average horses and it was only the horses second run and was abit outpaced then staying on and since then has only raced on soft wich it does not seem too have enjoyed very much and now on better surface again and with more experience should have every chance today.
4.25 Trulee Scrumptious and Light Burst
The reason I have took Trulee, is that the trainer had a horse run well at Ascot, on the 22nd and the trainer has had winners here also I think Jimmy Quinn, has come here for something today I just have that feeling so I am backing this and also there other runner in the last race and the reason I am backing Light Burst, is it should appreciate the better ground today, it ran a decent race on debut on gdfm ground behind some good horses in a race won by famous poet and there this race look's a hell of a lot weaker than that race and since then has left Godolphin, but I think the horse will be well above average and should have a serious chance today if is.
5.30 Fama Gusta, is my second P Charalambous horse, I am taking and like I said, I think the trainer and Jimmy Quinn, are here for a winner and if the other does not win hopefully this one will, the horse is unexposed on ground this fast wich could bring improvement and there is not a lot in the race and should have every chance today.
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Posts: 2905
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:10 am Post subject:
5:10pm Lingfield - MIZBAH
Frankie Dettori travels down to Lingfield this evening for his only ride of the day aboard the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mizbah which should indicate that he's unlikely to travel all the way for the horse not to have a good chance of winning. Moreso when you consider that both William Buick and Paul Hanagan have been used by Godolphin intermittently and neither have a ride in said race so it would have been very easy for Godolphin to have used either of those two.
Mizbah was a fast finishing second by a neck a couple of weeks ago at Wolverhampton. The winner has since ran a solid off 1lb higher but over a too short distance (he finished 4 lengths down but was running on). He looks set to run a big race today with a few runners who will set a decent pace which should set the race up for him. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
A tough competitive handicap and should be a close finish and hard to rule many out here so many could have a say in the finish I think All For You is over priced here and looks great Each Way value and forget last time outs disappointing run as it came to soon after a long break and many horses struggle on there second run after some time off All For You has placed in half of its turf races and won here last season off just a 3lb lower mark so not badly handicapped at all Made a cracking return here in seasonal opener after ten months off and got third and was not beaten far off this mark"
"Smallish field but very competitive and hard to rule many out and all have good chances I like Bint Alzain and no doubt the horse as ability but jockeys struggle to get the best out of the horse but has top jockey Ryan Moore on board here and that is a positive no doubt and rarely jumps aboard Butler horses so must mean something Horse has won off 70 and this mark is not out of reach and extra furlong will be ideal and been tapped for pace in other races then been staying on Will be finishing while others are tiring and can see Moore timing it right today Did not have a good draw last time but did well to get close but much better drawn today and Moore can put the horse in a ideal position for a gold run"
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 8978
Location: Essex/Javea
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:46 pm Post subject:
4.25 Yarmouth
Light Burst 8/1
Saaboog is the one they all fancy and been in consistent form and also Patriotic and both seem the ones all the punters want to be on but taking both of them on I am going for Light Burst who has been wanting this ground for time and last time out flop can be ignored as it hated the soft ground Light Burst is still lightly raced and only placed in one of its six races but two starts ago looked one to follow when second to Delft at 50/1 and a few horse have run crackers in the mid 70's since so Light Burst looks really well handicapped off of 63 here and fast ground will bring the best out of the horse"
ARCH VILLAIN trained by Mrs Amanda Perrett who has he in fine order at present and she saddles two runners here at Lingfiel this afternoon, this one being the first of them. Jim Crowley once again in the saddle and will be doing the hold up tactics. Raced five times and only recorded one win so far and that was at Kempton over today's trip of twelve furlongs. Was made favourite for his last race at Goodwood but the eleven furlongs might of been on the short side. Today's race might have a bit more pace on, with a couple of front runners in the field, to which Jim Crowley can take his mount in behind and to aim ARCH VILLAIN with a good run at the pacemakers and have the stamina to out stay this field.
LINGFIELD 5.40
WELSH NAYBER
WELSH NAYBER the second runner for Amanda Perrett this afternoon and hopefully a second winner of the afternoon. Jim Crowley in the saddle and will possibly go to the front and try and make all, if doing so and getting the fractions right, might not come back to the field. Won on his last of the season in 2011 at Yarmouth over ten furlongs. Raced the last twice at Brighton and on the last visit he finished second and only tiring inside the final furlong, also finished third before this and was only ran out of it inside the final furlong. Today, WELSH NAYBER has a very good draw in stall one to get into a good stride and up against the running rail could be the best place to be for a front runner and Jim could get a good run on the field and may not be able to be pegged back here.
This horse is 4 from 4 over course and distance, taking races off marks of 85,85,90 and 91. On only other visit here it was placed off a mark of 100 over an insufficient 6 furlongs. It hinted at a return to form last time out when 3rd of 13 at Doncaster when an unfancied 33/1 shot. Back at a course he clearly loves and over his optimum trip I fancy this one to go close tonight at the ripe old age of 10 off a mark of 75! Each Way value at 9/1 for me even against Roger Charlton's Nimble Thimble who could be way superior? Ex Irish Noble Jack looked to be well handicapped when winning last time too so maybe throw that one in to a combination exacta?
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