Backing Big Prices On The Footie (2 Goal Gap!)

drogerson · Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:58 pm Post subject:

I don't have the goal stats, but i've checked out just the ht & ft's.

Just a quick one on such leads at half-time where a team is 2-0 up but doesn't score in the second half whilst the opposition does.

(X>0)

5 years (2006/2011)

Half-Time Score 2-0: 975 games
Full-Time Score 2-X: 220 games
Strike Rate: 22.56%

Half-Time Score 0-2: 545 games
Full-Time Score: X-2: 178 games
Strike Rate: 32.66%

Average Home Team Price: 2.27
Average Away Team Price: 3.80

Although it's less likely to occur if the Home team has such advantage, they are generally more favoured and the price is likely to be better to Lay.
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slyerfox · Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 10:02 am Post subject:

Thank you!

According to the stats this strat might be more useful betting in games where the away team leads with 2 goals in HT then.

drogerson · Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:50 pm Post subject:

I would say either.

It's more likely that if the home team goes up that the price will collapse, and then there's a real chance of a good % trade out.

The price won't collapse as much for the away team, but the strike rate is better so it could even itself out.

I don't have the average ht/ft prices though.
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frankiex · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:51 am Post subject:

davidg what site do you get all your stats cheers frankie

nors · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:16 am Post subject:

On the trade a day thread i normally advise laying the fav in chosen premiership matches and greening up if 0-0 at half time or the outsider scores.

However in many cases the fav scores in the 1ast half and you are left with a losing trade.

But i have advised previously of going back in and backing the outsider again (+ the draw in some cases)

The inflated price of the outsider means that you only need to be right a few times to glean a profit.

It will be interesting in the forthcoming season to trial this.
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gecko6 · Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2012 9:52 am Post subject:

Online Trader · Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 2:05 pm Post subject:

I shall be partaking in this again this season, sticking to Premiership only, laying any team that takes a 2 goal lead, makes watching Soccer Saturday a whole lot of fun

gecko6 · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 1:29 pm Post subject:

backing or laying but watching for these 2 goal gaps

(or 1 occasionally if the market over-reacts)

here we go...

Win

Online Trader · Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:49 pm Post subject:

Laying Fulham @ 1.06 as they go 2 up against Norwich

gecko6 · Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:45 pm Post subject:

villa 75 now as 2-0 down, fulham 250 as 3-1 down.. worth dabbling as next goal could change these
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gecko6 · Posted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:28 pm Post subject:

fulham went over 400 but they got the next goal (3-2) so now 55 to Lay

nice little trade

Win

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nors · Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:00 am Post subject:

Well done gecko, a perfect example of trading with the result being unimportant.
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