Godolphin can maintain the good form of Ibtahaj,a 3 y/o colt by
Invincible Spirit (IRE) — Maroussies Wings (IRE) (In The Wings)
Hopefully he can defy a 6lb penalty for his 13 length defeat of Richard Hannons 3 y/o Eurystheus a week ago.
He won at the 4th time out when easily winning his Brighton maiden by 5 lengths.
Godolphin soon placed him in a handicap over this course and distance Ibtahaj looked a bit green under Mickael Barzalona and can only improve.He should move way past a lenient mark of 85,and his penalty should not inconvenience him if ridden prominently again.Yes anyone can pick short prices,but maybe include in placepots? If he should trade anywhere evens or bigger,i,ve put a few requests in on Betfair,hopeful they will be matched,and he really should fulfill expectations and be a nice horse to follow in the future.
Ibtahaj is a worthy favourite here in my view, looked very high classlast time out when winning at Kempton over 8f and is back again today over the sameC+D. Despite now having a penalty Ibtahaj did win by over three lengths last week andcan hopefully get the hatrick, especially with Dettori on board. Only other C+Dwinners are Ashva and Cruiser who scored earlier this year buthave failed to impress since. Ibtahaj seems a horse progressing and I can see itcompeteing at higher level soon.
I agree with both of you on Ibtahaj, i backed him lto where he looked classy and a mark above the rest, he should go close today, though i wont be backing today at such a short price. It will be interesting to see how the in play prices are, as lto he shot off like a rocket and never looked back. Also "The Duke" who's 9/9 over the past 9 days has put him as his daily NAP, which will probably be 10/10 this time tomorrow, but i wish you both luck.
5.50 Kempton Speightowns Kid 4/1, Just a short write up, but im basing this selection on how well he ran lto. Placing 3rd on the turf over at Newbury 8 days ago he was severly hampered nearing the line, but still managed to produce a strong turn of foot to finish well. I have no doubt with more luck he would of easily won and done so by a considerable margin. He has decent form at the track with 1,2,2,4 most over 5f, but should relish the step up to 6f on a surface he should find comfortable on. With 11 from 15 runs on the all weather along with a weaker field than lto and a good jockey trainer combination, hopefully he will find clear air this time to bring home the bacon.
Mohawk Ridge - is the choice here ; acts on any going - stays the trip well - stable is in form and acts well on the track ( has a C/D win to his credit ) ; what more could you ask for ? Has a couple of lengths to find with Bijou Dan on running LTO but didn't settle too well that day and if ridden with a bit more restraint could well take revenge here - was well backed too last time and is taken to recover losses in what looks a fairly modest contest overall.
Selection : Mohawk Ridge ...... @5/2 - Generally Available.
Last edited by The Executioner on Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
This looks a decent fillies' maiden for the track, with two or three showing enough on debut to suggest their turn isn't far away, but there are also some nicely bred newcomers from respected stables in a race that has been won in recent times by the likes of Sesmen, Jaaryah and Blue Angel.
The selection is a daughter of Proud Citizen who is the first foal of a Listed-placed 1m 2yo AW winner who was a half sister to the very smart 6f-1m winner (including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf) Donativum, US 8-9f Grade 3 winner Wordly, smart miler Nice Danon, 7f 2yo winner Tasdeed and the useful 8-10f Flat/2m 1f hurdle winner Day To Remember out of a very useful 6f 2yo winner (finished third at Listed level). This nicely bred filly is trained by Sylvester Kirk and made her debut in a 6f fillies' maiden here little more than a month ago, sent off an unconsidered 33/1 chance; raced at the rear of the main group until shaken up and making progress from over two furlongs out, green and taking a little while to get the message but staying on well throughout the final furlong to come home third behind Sharaarah (beaten 4 lengths). She fared best of the newcomers on the day, praiseworthy in itself, and that she managed to make the frame from a hold up ride and being subjected to no more than a hand ride throughout the final furlong is very much to her credit. The form of that race looks nothing out of the ordinary at this stage, but this daughter of Proud Citizen will relish the additional furlong on offer here, based on her pedigree and also her finishing effort on debut; several of the yard's youngsters have improved considerably on their debut effort this term, and no surprise to see this filly follow suit and get off the mark at the second time of asking here.
The Jeremy Noseda-trained Blue Nova is a daughter of Nayef who is the first foal of a 7f 2yo AW winner who was a half sister to very smart 6-10f UK/US winner (including at Group/Grade 3/Listed level) Fantasia and smart 10-12f winner (including at Group 3 level) Pink Symphony out of a 10f 3yo winner who was the daughter of top-class juvenile Blue Duster. This well-bred filly made her debut outing in a 6f fillies' maiden at Newmarket towards the end of May, for which she was sent off a not unfancied 9/2 chance; raced in behind the leaders until ridden and switched past the two furlong marker, briefly threatening to take a hand in the finish but proving one paced inside the final furlong to eventually come home seventh of 10 behind Sandreamer (beaten 3 lengths). She shaped as though a lack of fitness was the problem on that occasion, clued up to an extent as she raced behind the pacesetters for much of the way, switched to challenge well over a furlong out and briefly looking dangerous until unable to quicken. Her pedigree strongly suggests that a step up in distance will suit well, and the form of her debut run has received significant boosts via the winner placing at Listed level next time and the runner-up and fourth winning next time out; likely to last a longer on this occasion, and it would be somewhat surprising if this daughter of Nayef wasn't heavily involved now upped in distance and having the benefit of a run to call on now.
The Clive Brittain-trained Sadiigah is a daughter of Medicean who is a full sister to high-class 6-7f 2yo winner (including at Group 3 level) Regal Realm out of a 7f 2yo AW winner who was a half sister to multiple 5-6f winner Regal Royale and fairly useful 7f-1m winner (mainly AW) Merchant Of Medici out of Cheveley Park Stakes winner Regal Rose, herself a half sister to smart middle distance stayer (Leger fourth) Regal Flush. This nicely bred filly made her debut in a 6f maiden here three weeks ago, for which she was sent off an unfancied 25/1 chance; tracked the leader for much of the way until ridden to lead briefly over a furlong out, soon having no answers for odds on favourite and easy winner Janoub Nibras but sticking to her task well to keep the margin on defeat down to 1½ lengths. It was a promising debut display from this well-related daughter of Medicean, knowing her job fairly well and having no answers to the winner, but keeping on in pleasing fashion once headed entering the final furlong and shaping as though this extra furlong would suit. Her conqueror has since won again, albeit was all out to justify odds of 1/7 in a two-horse race here last week, and this filly is entitled to improve for her debut run despite looking fairly clued up for a newcomer; extra furlong almost certain to elicit some form of improvement, but her stable is just struggling to hit the target at present (1-30 since May; 0-16 with 2yos this term).
The Brian Meehan-trained Wittgenstein is a daughter of Shamardal who is a full sister to 9-14f winner Lifetime out of a smart dual 1m 2yo winner (including at Listed level) who was a half sister to smart 5-6f 2yo winner (including twice at Listed level) Bella Tusa, useful dual 5f 2yo winner Light The Rocket, dual 7f 2yo winner Princess Petardia and 11f 4yo winner Darsan. This filly debuted in the same 6f fillies' maiden at Newmarket as Blue Nova, finishing a couple of places behind her in ninth, but she did at least show some improvemet when finishing midfield in a course and distance fillies' maiden here a couple of weeks ago, racing in behind the pacesetters for much of the way until fading inside the final furlong to come home in seventh behind Discernable (beaten 6 lengths). It was an improved effort on what she had shown first time up, but it was hardly the performance of a filly that looked ready to strike anytime soon at this sort of level; bit to find with Blue Nova on their debut run, and likely to find one or two of these too good for her here unless improving radically for her latest run.
The John Dunlop-trained Alpine Mysteries is a daughter of Elusive City who is a half sister to 6½f 2yo winner Bobskier out of a fairly useful dual 1m 2yo winner who was a half sister to useful 10f-2m winner Downhiller, 11-12f 3yo winner Anton Dolin, 1m 2yo winner Ski For Me and 10f 2yo winner Eglevski out of a half sister to very smart US middle distance performer Bequest. This nicely bred filly made her debut outing in a course and distance fillies' maiden a fortnight ago, going off an unfancied 28/1 chance; completely fluffed the start and ran green in last for much of the way, making some progress from two furlongs out to eventually beat three rivals home behind Discernable (beaten 16½ lengths). She was virtually clueless throughout, missing the break badly and racing well off the pace for much of the way, making modest late progress to eventually beat a few rivals home under tender handling, quite clearly in bad need of the experience. The majority of her family tend to improve with time/distance, and it is more than likely that this filly's improvement will coincide with a move into nurseries later on in the campaign; needs to have learned plenty in the fortnight since her debut run to take a hand here, but one to keep an eye on regards the future.
There are one or two interesting newcomers in the field, headed by the Charlie Hills-trained Rosia Bay, a daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar who is a half sister to Group 3-placed 7f 2yo winner Prompter and 10f-2m winner (mainly AW) Quinsman, out of a very useful 7f-1m winner (Listed placed) who was a half sister to very smart 7f-1m winner (including at Group 2/Listed level) and useful 8-10f winner Udabaa. This filly catches the eye on pedigree as a half sister to a smart juvenile and also a multiple winner over middle/staying distances on this surface, and the dam was a very useful performer in her own right and also a half sister to Celebration Mile winner Priors Lodge. She comes from a stable that sent out a couple of well supported winning newcomers last week, and pre-race market support given what the stable have at home would look significant in this filly's case; no surprise to see her go close here if anywhere near fully wound up.
The other newcomer of interest is the Richard Hannon-trained Woodlandsway, a daughter of Oasis Dream who is the second foal of a 5f 3yo winner who was a full sister to very smart 6-7f winner (including at Group 2/Listed level) Etlaala, useful 7f-1m winner Selective and quite useful dual 1m winner Splendorinthegrass and a half sister to useful 6-7f 2yo winner Overspect, fairly useful 6f 3yo winner Button Moon, prolific 6-10f winner (mainly AW) Marmooq and to the dam of useful dual 7f winner Makaamen. This filly was retained for 75,000gns as a foal and went unsold last year for €45,000, but she makes a significant amount of appeal on paper as the second foal of a sister to a trio of at least useful performers, including Champagne Stakes winner Etlaala and smart handicapper Selective. She hails from an excellent source of two-year-old winners that has sent out the winner of this race on a couple of occasions in recent times, including with a newcomer that went on to compete a smart level; pre-race market support would look extremely significant. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
2.20 Dream Maker
Tom Dascombes, horses are not running amazing but a little bit better than a few months back and I think he will get some winners soon he has above average horses and this could be one, the selection has finished 3rd on it's last 2 runs their is nothing wrong with that and encounters softer ground today wich I think might suit fine and is unexposed still and can improve on it's last 2 runs and go very close today 9/2 looks a fair enough price.
2.50 Old Man Clegg
The softer the better for this horse I would imagine after it's nice run last time on the soft ground in a class 4 at York, and that was not a bad run, it was only it's second run and although a bad draw today there is plenty scope for further improvement and with underfoot conditions that is highly likely and I will give it a chance to go 1 better today.
1 of 2 Tracy Waggott, runners in this race and her horses are going well at the moment and this horse out the 2 interests me the most at a big price looks a good E/W opportunity, it's best form seems to be on gdfm ground but it ran a fine race at Chester, untill got crowded and weakend 150 yards out and that was on gdsft ground in a class 5 so there is every reason to think softer conditions could be ok and looks reasonably weighted and has a good chance of grabbing a place at the least. 20/1
3.50 Dans Heir
Though was well beaten by Zafooha before I think that horse is a bit of a 1 hit wonder not very consistent and chances are Zafooha, wont show
what it is capable of where Dans Heir, got going to late that day but finished well going intoo second and has less weight today and also showed some form on it's last run to suggest a big run is ready and I think that could be today on ground to suit and a sharp course.
4.20 Nearly A Gift
Has been bang out of form but the Yard have hit top form lately and if this horse can find it's top form would be there with every chance of winning it would have a serious chance and im willing to give it a chance for the inform yard.
4.50 Amir Pasha
It will apreciate the step back in trip and has won on soft at this course and pretty much goes on any ground and looks on a good mark and ready to strike and looks the best bet in this race.
Hasent shown alot of form but because of that doesent have very much weight and looks well treated and seems to handle gdsft ground fine as when 3rd at Market Rasen, on gd sft was not a bad run and I have also noticed alot these jump horses have been winning flat races lately and this one wont be short of stamina and has a live chance I think.14/1
Joined: 08 Oct 2009
Location: Asking Big Bucks to finish Grand Crus
Posted: Wed Jul 04, 2012 1:04 pm Post subject:
3.40 WORCESTER - SAUTE (NAP) Its not often that you can feel so confident about a selection running in a selling hurdle on a wednesday afternoon where the ground is terrible, but in my opinion Saute looks a standout betting opportunity in this afternoons selling hurdle. The favourite currently at 13/8 is Nelson Du Ronceray who has won the last two selling hurdles that the horse has contested easily and hence that is why the horse would be favourite for todays race against what looks an out of form in Saute. However, there are excuses for Tim Vaughan's charge. The horse had run out a six length winner at Fakenham off top weight absolutely smacking any handicap chance the horse had out of the ball park with his mark increasing to 126 and therefore Vaughan's hand was slightly forced to enter him in a much too competitive handicap hurdle and clearly the horse was outclassed in that contest especially running fresh so you can forgive the horse that run, and not just this but last time out the horse was running over fences, which he has never met before at a speed of that nature in a context of a race in softish conditions so once again i can excuse that run but back to optimum conditions today with 2m suiting and this is the first time the horse is being dropped to selling class for the first time and in my opinion will be extremely difficult to beat. Im extremely confident, and 2/1 thats currently available is a steal. _________________ Follow Me On Twitter
Worth taking the favourite on here imo, she has been running well but should really have won by now after 4 starts and not so sure I'd want to take the skinny odds on offer. Therapeutic has had 1 less start so thats a small advantage already, she has been running well in some fairly competitive maidens. She was a little dissapointing lto when finishing 4/10 going off at 5/2 but I think she just had a bad run, I dont think its a case of the ground. Hopefully she can confirm that with a good performance today at 5/1.
2.50 Old Man Clegg
Taking on another big favourite here, Deepest Blue may not like the softer ground today and thats one reason alone not to back at odds on. Old Man Clegg ran a stormer lto in a class 4 sellers contest, finishing 2/14, he had Severn Bore and Mad Jazz well beaten, the former had previouslly won 2 races on the trot and the latter had won before and also won nto. With just the 2 starts to his name he shouldn't need to improve an awful lot to take this.
3.20 Mata Hari Blue
Miss Elany could prove to be very hard to beat today after making such a fantastic start for D O'Meara but taking on handicappers today off a mark of 77 will certainly be a test. Mata Hari Blue should really be winning more races but she has been knocking on the door recently and is getting closer. She was beaten by Best Trip lto and he has since gone onto score easily in a class 4 handicap. Its hard to imagine Mata Hari Blue no finishing in the frame at least here so an EW is likely a very safe bet, hopefully she can go one better.
3.50 Dans Heir
This has drifted to a nice price now, its a shame there are only 2 places here cos I'd say hes very likely to finish in the top 3 here. Mohawk Ridge and Bijou Dan will be the only dangers to him imo but at the prices I'd rather stick with Dans Heir. He hasn't won for over 2 years now but hes been getting pretty close recently and loves this course and distance having recorded 2 win over it. He keeps low in the handicap rating here and its only a matter of time before he takes advantage, today looks a reasonable oppurtunity.
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