Germany v Italy Semi Final Bets

monkeytennis · Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:05 pm Post subject: Germany v Italy Semi Final Bets

So England are out and it's Italy who face Germany in the semis. I think the fact that Italy knocked England out and dominated the game means they will be underpriced and over bet. I've been keen on Germany throughout and think they have been overpriced in all their games except the one against Greece and it is no surprise to see their odds shortening just hours after the odds have been put up.

Italy don't score many but they've created plenty of chances at this tournament and with Germany only keeping one clean sheet so far I think the next best bet after Germany to win in 90 minutes is both teams to score. I can't see Italy scoring more than once though so 2-1 and 3-1 will appeal in the correct score market whilst I'll be hoping Gomez returns to the starting line up as he's my bet in the Golden Boot!

Anyone see a shock in this game? Italy have drawn three out of four games so far, perhaps that's a value play? Thoughts everyone?

Micko70 · Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:22 pm Post subject:

Judging by the games played already i would think Germany are justified as being favourites for this game.

It might be a close game as Italy are not that bad, although i hope Germany come through as i have Germany/Spain & Germany/Portugal bets for the final @ 8/1 & 30/1.

I am thinking of backing Italy in the outright win market for this match, just to cover my stakes for my final bets just incase.

Italy are 12/5 with Stan James but generally a 7/4 chance to get through outright.

I will have a think about it and decide later in the week

ph0eniix · 2yo Joined: 16 Jun 2012 Posts: 1

Both teams know that this Game will be a hard one.
Germany is the favorite for me to reach the final but I think there won't
be many Goals in the 90min. Even extra Time could be possible as Italy
might play very defensive like they did against Spain. So the best bet for me is Germany to win | under 2.5 Goals

Antony OLBG · Stallion Read My Blog! Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 7108

I think Italy are a lot worse that then looked against England and will obviously be tired physically and emotionally after that big victory for them.

Germany have had 2 extra days rest and didn't have a hard game (they even rested players) against Greece.

They showed they can open up teams that try to defend too and have been improving each game I feel after a fairly cautious start against Portugal.

Cant believe I can get 1.9 on Germany with Paddy Power on the 1X2 or Bet365 on the -0.5 Asian Handicap

adotc6 · Group 1 Class Joined: 22 Dec 2011 Posts: 347

As someone said above, people will think Italy are world beaters because they managed to dominate a poor England team. However I think defensivly they still look very vunerable.

England put a few men in the box and they made the Italian defence look shaky, Germany will pile the France box with quality players and they will crack.

Germany have been the best team ive watched this tournement, coming away with 9 points in the toughest group is pretty impressive.

Personally thought the odds would be better than whats on offer, but oh well.

Germany are likely to get forward frequently leaving themselves exposed at the back. Feel there will be goals.

Both teams to score & Germany to Win looks a good bet.

brewster39 · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 29 Dec 2006 Posts: 2178

I'm with Ant and co, if I wasn't already holding on for Germany to win so much outright I'd have a lump on them here. They have masses amounts of quality, in the starting XI and the bench, extra two days rest and it should be curtains. Italy showed just how poor their finishing is against England last night and I'd expect the Germans to dominate.
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brewsty39

monkeytennis · Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:30 pm Post subject:

Euro 2012 Germany v Italy

ghotiing · Group 3 Class Joined: 25 Apr 2011 Posts: 67

Hi guys,

maybe some thoughts from a German guy may be helpful here. From a German point of view the odds on Germany winning and/or advancing seem bizarrely short, as Italy is Germany's - how do the Spanish say? - bestia negra. Or to give yo the German word for this, Italy is Germany's "Angstgegner". If I remember correctly, England hadn't won against Italy in any competition match in 34 years or something, but they only played each other 7 times during this time. Now, guess what: Germany met Italy 7 times in big tournaments (World Cup and European finals) in history, and Germany won - exactly none of the matches. Zero. Zilch. 4 of those matches were draws, but those were during pool play; if it was in the knock-out phase, it was always Italy who won - 1 World Cup final (1982), 2 World Cup Semis (1970 and 2006).

So, what does that mean now? It means that the public opinion here in Germany is "we're out, no chance". Compared to this public opinion, odds of 1.4 or so for Germany advancing to the final seem incredibly short; even if Germany are favourites, they should be considerably longer than Spain. So, in conclusion: If I were to bet on this match, I would bet on Italy - not because they have a better chance to win (maybe they have, maybe they don't), but because their odds seem too long.

Cheers,

ghotiing

ghotiing · Group 3 Class Joined: 25 Apr 2011 Posts: 67

Oh, and one additional comment.

I read here (and in international media) that Germany rested Gomez, Podolski and Mueller in the game against Greece. This is actually not true, as these substitutions were a tactical move by Jogi Loew: He wanted a more agile attacking side which can also pass the ball around, as he expected that the Greeks would have more problems with this kind of attack than with an attack which relies on high crosses and headers from a central striker. Also, Podolski and Mueller were seen as underperforming in the first three matches, so their substitutions weren't a real surprise.

Right now, it's not clear who will start against Italy. It could be Reus (instead of Podolski), Oezil and Mueller - and I've got no idea if Loew will play Gomez or Klose. And maybe another heads-up: It's possible that Schweinsteiger will be replaced. So far he was one of the weak points in the team and really underperforming, but as he is such a high-profile player for the team, the coach can't just substitute him without getting heaps of media reaction. But right now, Schweinsteiger is publicly stating that he is not happy with his own efforts and that he is still suffering from his injuries and that this is holding him back - all this looks like the build-up to a non-controversial substitution for the next match. So expect some surprise in midfield.

nors · Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 10:56 am Post subject:

Illuminating post ghotiing and intereseting to read thoughts from a German point of view.

Germany in their minds may not be the completed and finished team but those two days extra are going to be crucial. We only have to look at the repeated poor performances by English teams on Saturdays who have played midweek in the Champions League, the recovery time is not enough.

Italy have overacheived in their and their fans eyes, but this will surely be the end of the Euro 2012 journey for them, i expect the Germans to steamroller the Italians, with Pirlo not given the time he had against England.

Germany - 10/11
Germany -1 @11/4

pharlap · Classic Winner Joined: 02 Oct 2008 Posts: 946

My favourite bet for tonight is "both teams to score". Huge firepower in the german team which usually means goals, but quite awful at the back. The italians don't play catennacio football anymore and have enough firepower to score at least one goal in this game.

UnderdogsLover · Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 7:44 am Post subject:

Got a feeling this will be a dull draw Yes

, and extra time
will be needed again.
As semi finals no ones to loose, both sides will pack in the
midfield, like the Spain V Portugal, and dont see many goals in
this one.

Germany to win in extra time.
Also am tempted of another penalty shootout.. Very Happy