Horse racing discussion - Saturday 9th May

[budgie27]

Lots of typical difficult racing on Saturday - one that caught my eye at a price was Cravat in the 2.35 at Chester. He's 33-1 and backable at 1/4 odds 3 places. He's a course winner out of a Saddlers Wells mare and as a Mark Johnston 3 year old has to be given some respect. Has the outside draw which statistically is a big advantage over this trip (it still seems that this hasn't been picked up and the expectation is that lower draws are better) so his price is too attractive to dismiss. He's not an obvious winner of the race but might outrun big odds. He runs off 84 having won his last 2yo race off 91, ran in the Epsom Derby trial where he was out with the washing but was close up around horses from Gosden and APoB. Quite a bit of his 2yo form means that 84 is at least fair (if looking at horses like Gabrial etc) and he gets 11lbs wfa here. It is raining in the North West so there are likely to be non runners and if it comes up soft the Koukash horses will probably be well favoured.

[aidanldrebin]

There is an intetresting fillies' maiden at Windsor at 6.30 which features a pair of well-bred newcomers.

Sky Garden is an Acclamation half sister to high-class multiple 5f winner Enticing and the very promising 2012 dual 7f 3yo winner Sentaril, out of the very smart speedster Superstar Leo, so she is bred to make a significant impact right and hails from an in-form yard already off the mark with its youngsters this year.

However, it is fascinating to see the John Gosden trained Cross Pattee out so early. She is an Oasis Dream half sister to a handful of winners, including high-class middle distance performer Bronze Cannon and 2yo debut winners Elusive Award (6f) and Valiance (7f), out of a Listed placed 7f 3yo winner. Her pedigree suggests that she will need at least another furlong before showing her true colours, but this filly has obviously been showing an abundance of speed to debut over this distance in June and it's unlikely connections would rush her unless absolutely certain she will have enough dash to prove competitive over the minimum distance. Her stable's first 2yo runner of 2012 was an impressive winner at HQ earlier on today (this filly was actually entered for the same race), and hopefully this daughter of Oasis Dream can follow suit.
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[budgie27]

Aidan I'm looking to back Grey Mirage 11/4 EW - can't see him out of the frame and a 25% loss for the EW with a nice gain if he wins. Marco Botti thinks he's a group performer so he should be capable of winning off 89 with the ground more likely to be in his favour than some of the others - thoughts know you have tipped up the Stoute horse. The Barathea side of Mawasem might be OK with soft ground but Street Cry would surely be a worry if it's soft? Grey Mirage beat some good horses last time (they may have been inconvenienced by the ground) but won like a class horse. I make Grey Mirage a confident bet at 11/4 EW - a first 3 place gives a loss of around 25% and a win offers around 150% profit on stakes.

[aidanldrebin]

Grey Mirage obviously demands a good deal of respect given his win in the Esher Cup at Sandown last time, and the fact the the fourth and sixth came out and finished first and second in a good handicap at Goodwood next time gives the form a good look. However, it is worth bearing in mind that he made all on a day when it paid to be prominent/leading, and also had the edge in terms of fitness over the majority of those in behind, though the way he forged clear from his nearest pursuer inside the final furlong was undeniably impressive.

Obviously his mark of 89 for winning his maiden and a good handicap compared to Mawasem's mark of 95 for winning a maiden only seems to be strongly in his favour, but Mawasem was value to finish a lot closer in what was a very strong renewal of the Wood Ditton (which I imagine is the main reason for what appears a fairly harsh opening mark). He then won a maiden in good style from a next time out winner who had form with a Listed winner, doing so in a quicker time than when Grey Mirage won his maiden over the same course and distance.

Those two appear to be the only two in the field with any Group-race aspirations, albeit I do firmly believe that Assizes is a lot better than he showed on his comeback run at Haydock when apparently in bad need of the run. I just get the impression that there is so much more to come from Mawasem, who was asked to race proper for the first time at Kempton, having been given the kid gloves treatment when making ground easily in the Wood Ditton on debut.

In terms of the ground, Street Cry would be a concern where Mawasem is concerned but, as you say, the dam's side of the pedigree gives plenty of hope that he will handle the conditions, and I would imagine he will be pulled out should they have serious concerns about him on rain-softened ground.
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[mooster100]

STARLIGHT ANGEL looks of some interest in a maiden at Chester tomorrow - (3:40). She's speedily bred to be of interest on debut if knowing her job first time of asking. Drawn well in stall two and trainer Ronald Harris is 2 winners from 9 runners at the track over the past five seasons. @16's on Betfair at the moment.

[budgie27]

Should be interesting Grey Mirage is my first confident bet of the season at 11/4 EW 1/4 odds (if still available) and I guess will shape my betting season. Marco Botti talked about him as a German guineas horse so he'd have to run well off 89 if that is true and I guess he knows a good miler! Personally I hope the others are inconvenienced by trip and/or ground. Just looks to be carrying a decent weight and his form is not bad and looked above average at Sandown where the second probably got past him for a stride or two but then he pulled away in the style of a very good and willing horse, quickening up very well. I like this horse but there are a number of dangers and unknowns headed by Mawasem and Well painted but also Gold City might improve being by Pivotal.

BTW Aidan not putting up Grey Mirage just because you put up Mawasem - I've backed Grey Mirage to big stakes - always back what I put up here - just looks the likeliest winner of the race to me at an enticing price. For sure Mawasem's Kempton run stacks up but perhaps that was on "ground" that favoured his pedigree? If you put Mawasem and Grey Mirage side by side at Kempton I guess Mawasem would come out on top by 2-5 lengths but the going is an unknown for Mawasem at about the same price. Grey Mirage made his own running and also did it 6 weeks earlier in the season.

[bully1981]

Maybe back to place budgie instead of ew dont have to loose if your pick dont win. Bit short at min but worth putting in for a better price 50/50 or 35/65 hmm
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[MattFultonPlym]

Interesting that Apollo D'Negro runs in the 7:30 at Windsor as well. Came 2nd yesterday at Bath (think it may have even been tipped up on here)

Will wait and see if he gets pulled out, but worth a punt. A couple of horses have ran good races recently after racing a day or two before.

Odds of around 15/2 at the minute!!

[paultoma]

MattFultomPlym - I mentioned it last night after a very unlucky third the time before, once again found trouble in running and just failed to reel in the eventual winner. Clearly in form and I would suggest its a standout e/w bet if they persist with it tonight and Apollo D'Negro takes his chance. Likely NR though I would have thought.

Aiden - any views on the Windsor 8.00pm? Some very juicy prices flying about at the minute for some useful looking types from top yards, I am personally looking to take on the market principles.

[roscom]

yesterday i did a small trade so was waiting for the Lay bet to be matched as the race went off. It was matched at 2.2 which was great, but on the Betfair screen, the Lay price was 2.7. Any idea how this can happen? The horse did not win.

[MattFultonPlym]

Yep, as predicted, Non-Runner

[ethorn]

I think there has to be a certain amount traded to record it. If it was for small money even though it was laid at that price it may not show on the official record.