Monday 27th May Horse Racing Discussion

lookingglass91

Royal Box 16/1 into 3/1 bumper at Leicester...anyone know what's going on there?? Shocked

aidanldrebin · Posted: Sun May 27, 2012 11:43 pm Post subject:

Interested to see how the Sylvester Kirk trained newcomer Something Magic fares in the 2.15 at Kempton. She is a Proud Citizen first foal of a Listed placed 1m 2yo debut winner for connections who was a half sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Donativum, US 8-9f Grade 3 winner Wordly, 7f 2yo debut winner Tasdeed and the useful 8-10f winner Day To Remember.

Sharaarah and one or two of the others with experience obviously hold the edge in that respect, and they do set a decent standard to aim at; the yard's newcomers also tend to improve for the run, but it still wouldn't surprise me if this well-bred filly were able to get involved first time out at decent odds, given her pedigree and the fact her handler was able to send out the dam to make a winning start to her career.

There is also an interesting maiden at Leicester at 2.30 which features a newcomer from the Mark Johnston stable by the name of Haverstock. He is a three-parts brother to dual 12f 3yo Flat/2m 6f-3m hurdle winner Galient (by Galileo), closely related to very smart middle distance performer Mores Wells (by Sadler's Wells) and a half brother to 7f 2yo winner Road Rage, out of a Queen's Vase winner who was a half sister to 1m 2yo debut winner Dakar Rally, excellent family of Indian Haven, Hala Bek, Imperial Stride, Daggers Drawn, Kite Wood etc.

His pedigree strongly suggests further will suit further down the line, but he's quite clearly been showing a degree of speed/precocity to debut this early on, and the fact that he is brought out this soon could also mean that connections view him as a Royal Ascot possible (would qualify for the Chesham Stakes at that meeting, being a son of Derby winner New Approach). Again, those with experience set a decent standard (particularly likely short priced favourite Artigiano), and this colt could well improve for the run more than most; however, the stable has already had its fair share of winning 2yo newcomers, and there have been one or two in the family that have proved more forward than the majority of their relations, so interesting to see how this colt gets on.

Whatever happens to both of the above today, they are most certainly worth watching for their first two/three runs.
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merlin · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 9:01 am Post subject:

Money around for my selection thread fancy, EIGHTFOLD. Big eye-catcher the last two runs when staying on over a mile and now stepped-up to 1m3 with Hannagan booked. Think this has a decent shout with Kempton's long finishing straight ideal to wind it up (Kempton 3.45).

Good luck.

The Executioner · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 9:21 am Post subject:

lookingglass91 · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 9:31 am Post subject:

So it is. My mistake. Think I was half asleep when I wrote that last night ha.

Embarassed

deswalker · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 9:39 am Post subject:

Not backing a thing at Windsor tonight but one to note is Alan King's Kings Troop in the lucky last. I've mentioned before how well he does with his flat runners (particularly at Windsor) and he still shows level stakes profit every year with his older handicappers, apart from a relatively fallow 2009;

For 4yo+
2012 - 23% strikerate +£18.50
2011 - 11% strikerate +£10.00
2010 - 14% strikerate +£53.00
2009 - 16% strikerate -£10.80
2008 - 17% strikerate +£39.50

I don't know why his horses are always underestimated on the flat but they clearly are.

Win

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FlyingBenny · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 9:39 am Post subject: Leicester 2.00

A quick additional note to The Ex's and ExoticDancer's excellent analysis of the Leicester 2.00. Having just watched the replay of the equivalent race last year, Sairaam was about 3 lengths clear entering the final furlong and just got run out of it close home.

Obviously the price has already been smashed up (7/1 across the board now) so I presume they're going for a repeat performance. She's also top rated on both sets of speed figs (ATR and the Racing Post) and likes Leicester - 4 runs there last year - two 2nds, a 4th and a 5th - 3 over today's distance.

I'll be dutching her with the 2 Bowring horses - probably all e/w - and there's the opportunity for forecasts/tricasts there as well I guess.

There could also be a trading opportunity with Sairaam as I presume she'll be up there all the way, so could trade very low in running. She must have hit 1.01 last year!!!

Good luck today however you decide to play the race!
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jaw102 · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 10:06 am Post subject:

Horse that is interesting today is APRIL FOOL 4.15 Kempton

Out of 13 races at Kempton he has 6 winners and 4 top 3 finishes. Which looks decent, however at this trip he has 3 winners and a 3rd out of 5 runs which makes this a very good bet imo. He likes to lead from the front so maybe a Lay in running.

an e/w bet around 8/1 is the bet here.

Think Channon will do ok in the 2.30 Leics and 8.10 Windsor.

NINE REALMS Sticks out in the 4.00 Leics But EVS, would like to see it drift a bit.
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coxy123 · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 11:30 am Post subject:

like the look of Fairyinthewind in the 6:40 @ Windsor

and a double for channon
7:50 Amazing Win
8:20 Tidal Run

turfline · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 11:59 am Post subject:

Posted 6Lbs or more clear on the Ratings System In-Running Play & Lay.

Monday 28th May..2012.

Just click on to the 6Lbs or more Blue Link below to view....go to page 107.................. Win

Will up-date at 6.30pm................. Win

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The Executioner · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 12:06 pm Post subject:

Aidan.....any word for Initiator 8.10 Windsor ; have got it as ' should run well ' but will improve for the outing....... 10/3 & 3's in places but starting to shorten up .... Confused

smeemartin · Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 12:10 pm Post subject:

Got a feeling that we may see a better performance from April Ciel in the last at Kempton, has had 3 runs in maidens 2x c5 and 1x c4, for A B Haynes , now with Ron Harris it makes its H/cap debut in a C6 ridden by the very able D E Egan im fully expecting some improvement for the change of stable.
The fav was under pressure to win a C6 off 52 and has another 6lb today so its not exactly a strong race and at 14/1 this looks a good opportunity to me for a small stakes interest...

Just noticed that Nelix and Jaw have both put up April Fool, in the K 4-15 also ridden by D E Egan, got to have a cheeky EW double aswell now....