This looks a potentially interesting three-year-old handicap that features a handful of unexposed, potential improvers that appeal as likely candidates for a race such as the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot next month, and there is also an impressive debut winner in the field who held a Classic entry until recently in what should prove to be an informative contest.
The selection is a son of Excellent Art who is a half brother to the high-class triple 5f 2yo winner (including the Group 3 Norfolk Stakes) Russian Valour, 5-7f winner Come Away With Me, triple 1m winner Vetvey and dual French 1m winner Val d'Espoir, out of a smart 7-9f winner in France who was the daughter of a half sister to French 2000 Guineas winner Green Dancer. This colt is trained by John Hills and shaped with some promise on debut when sixth of 11 behind Caledonian Lad in a 7f maiden at Ascot last July, making headway into midfield before fading back out of contention, but he was unable to build on that promise immediately when down the field in a 7f maiden at Newbury the following month, again unable to see things out as he came home 11th of 15 behind Tales Of Grimm. However, he really caught the eye when contesting a 7f maiden at Newmarket next time, making good progress from the back of the field over on the far side to challenge for a place approaching the final furlong fading soon after to come home in fifth behind Ellaal (beaten 4½ lengths). He came good at the fourth time of asking when landing a 7f maiden at Wolverhampton the following month, sent off a 3/1 chance; broke slowly and raced a little worse than midfield, making good headway on the outside of the field from over two furlongs out and led approaching the final furlong, staying on well and only having to be pushed out to readily account for Andalieb by 1¾ lengths. He returned to action in a handicap over the same course and distance last month, going off the 11/4 market leader; was dropped in from his wide draw and raced at the rear of the field until making good headway on the outer two furlongs out, ridden approaching the final furlong and staying on strongly throughout the final furlong but narrowly failed to overhaul Haaf A Sixpence, going down by a neck. However, it fully confirmed the promise of his juvenile campaign, his wide draw ultimately proving the difference between victory and defeat, finishing off to good effect and shaping in the process as though the extra furlong he tackles here will suit. He looks the type who has a lot more improvement left in him from this current mark of 78, having caught the eye in a couple of good turf maidens last term and winning his maiden at Wolverhampton in impressive style; no surprise whatsoever to see this son of Excellent Art make amends for his narrow defeat last time and confirm himself a handicapper of some potential with victory here.
The Mark Johnston trained Hamis Al Bin is an Acclamation half brother to the high-class Shakespearean who showed good speed but little else when eighth of nine behind the smart Trumpet Major in a 6f median auction maiden at Goodwood on his debut last May. He attempted to make all once again when contesting a similar event at York the following month, leading until past halfway but hanging for pressure once headed and fading inside the final furlong to eventually beat just home behind Swiss Spirit (beaten 14 lengths). His only other outing at two came in a 7f maiden at Chester in late July, going off an unfancied 16/1 chance; raced prominently on this occasion, short of room briefly and then soon outpaced as the tempo lifted on the approach to the home straight, making some headway for pressure over a furlong out but never looking a serious threat as he came home in fourth behind Stellar Express (beaten 3¾ lengths). He made his return to action in a 7f maiden at Southwell in March, going off a strongly fancied 8/15 favourite; raced prominently until pushed along and taking up the running passing the two furlong marker, but he was unable to hold off the challenge of Minstrels Gallery throughout the final furlong, headed inside the final 75 yards and going down by half a length. He eventually got off the mark at the fifth time of asking when landing an extended 1m maiden at Wolverhampton eight days later (2/1 joint-favourite); raced in behind the leader and was briefly short of room passing the two furlong marker, brought wide into the home straight but pushed along to lead approaching the final furlong, staying on well to come clear and see off Cape Samba by 3¾ lengths. He is a much improved performer on fibresand/polytrack so far this year, stepping up on a trio of muted efforts at two, drawing clear with a highly regarded newcomer on his reappearance before seeing off a fair modest bunch last time on his polytrack debut; mark of 78 looks enough on his debut in this sphere now taking on a clutch of potential improvers, but won with plenty to spare last time and shouldn't be underestimated here.
The David Lanigan trained Main Line is a son of Rail Link who is a three-parts brother to dual smart dual 6f 2yo winner (including at Group 2 level) Shaweel (placed at Group 1 level over 7f; by Dansili) out of a 1m 3yo winner who was a half sister to fairly useful multiple 5-6f winner Roker Park, 5f 2yo winner Springinmystep, 1m 1f 2yo winner Enabling and to the dam of Albany Stakes winners Nijoom Dubai and Samitar out of a half sister to very smart miler Golden Opinion. This nicely bred colt made his debut in an extended 1m maiden at Wolverhampton last month, going off a very weak 10/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field but travelling nicely for the most part, making headway two furlongs out and coming with a sustained effort on the far side rail to lead inside the final furlong, going away at the line to score by 1¼ lengths from Sareeah. It was an impressive debut performance from this colt considering his position for much of the way, coming with a strong and sustained run down the straight to win going away from an admittedly modest bunch (those in behind have done absolutely nothing for the form since). However, he can be expected to leave that form well behind in due course, and it is worth remembering that he held entries in the Dewhurst last year and the Irish Derby this; opening mark of 79 could therefore prove lenient (also closely related to Gimcrack winner Shaweel), and his excellent handler has began 2012 in extremely good style (4-8 so far); ought to go well.
The Charlie Hills trained Basseterre is a son of Cape Cross who is a half brother to dual UAE 10f winner Hadba and 1m 3yo winner Frances Stuart, out of a 10f 3yo winner/Cheshire Oaks second who was a half sister to 7f 2yo winner Dollar Chick, family of Dubawi, Amfortas and Legend Maker. This nicely bred colt got off the mark at the first time of asking when landing a 1m maiden at Lingfield back in January, for which he was sent off a well-fancied 2/1 chance; raced in touch having dwelt from the stalls, making good headway to challenge for the lead two furlongs out and ridden to lead entering the final furlong, drawing clear with Scatter Dice and staying on best to see off that rival by a length at the line. His only other outing to date came in an extended 1m handicap at Windsor last month on bad ground, sent off the 2/1 market leader; broke awkwardly and never really settled towards the rear of the field, making some progress between the two and one furlong markers but never seriously in contention, fading inside the final furlong to come home in seventh behind Paloma's Prince (beaten 11 lengths). He had his head down as the stalls opened and it seemed to light him up, failing to settle at the rear of the field early, making some headway but failing to sustain his progress into the final furlong and not given a hard time once held. The testing ground on that occasion may also have played its part, particularly given this colt hadn't seen action for three months since his debut win; back on polytrack and remains with potential, and the fact he held a Dante entry until the latest forfeit and currently holds a Derby entry indicates he could well be better than his current mark of 77 given time.
The Marco Botti trained California English is a son of Oasis Dream who stepped up markedly on his debut effort to finish third in an extended 1m maiden at Wolverhampton, again attempting to make just about all and still leading entering the final furlong, but he was unable to last home and was collared close to the finish by the staying on Prince Alzain, going down by 2 lengths at the line. However, he got off the mark at the third time of asking when landing a course and distance maiden a month later; once again attempted to make all, shaken up and strongly pressed entering the final two furlongs but finding plenty and coming clear inside the final furlong to see off the staying on Fortieth and Fifth by 3½ lengths. He made his reappearance in a course and distance handicap a month ago, for which he was sent off the 9/4 market leader; tracked the leader rather than go from the front on this occasion, ridden over two furlongs out and disputing entering the final furlong, keeping on but unable to match winner Kid Suitor and then losing second close home (beaten 1¼ lengths). It was a creditable effort in defeat from this gelding, still there with every chance entering the final furlong but proving unable to quicken with the eventual winner; repeat performance would likely see him on the premises and entitled to improve for his first run back, but 2lbs higher now and one or two others may have more scope for improvement.
The John Ryan trained Masters Blazing has been a big improver of late, actually running well when third behind California English here second time out but otherwise showing just a modest level of form up until a resounding 7 length winner of a 1m handicap at Warwick in April on his turf debut, forging clear inside the final furlong to win eased down. He couldn't follow up from an 8lbs higher mark in a 10f handicap at Nottingham next time, but returned to winning ways when returned to 1m for a handicap back at the same venue last week, close to the action throughout and taking over past the three furlong marker, clear approaching the final furlong and eased close to the finish as he ran out an emphatic 4½ length winner over The Noble Ord. He bids to carry a 6lbs penalty and continue his tremendous run of form, but the obvious worry here is the fact his upturn in fortunes has coincided with a switch to turf and both wide margin wins have come on ground with plenty of give in it, which has to raise concerns about whether or not he can continue his rich vein of form given his record on polytrack (0-8); faces one or two proven on this surface who are less exposed and appear on the upgrade so this will provide a sterner test of his credentials than has been the case on turf, for all he couldn't have been more impressive when registering his two victories at Warwick and Nottingham.
The Mahmood Al Zarooni trained Curzon Line is a son of Dubawi who shaped with a good deal of promise on his debut outing when fourth behind Perennial in a well-contested 1m maiden at Doncaster's St Leger meeting last September, disputing the running approaching the final furlong but looking awkward under a ride, just about leading entering the final furlong but hanging badly to his left and eventually fading to come home in fourth behind Perennial (beaten 4¾ lengths). His next outing came in a similar contest over the same distance at Haydock a couple of weeks later, going off a not unfancied 6/1 chance; however, he failed to build on that debut effort, racing freely in midfield under a waiting ride, pushed along over two furlongs out and failing to respond, again hanging under pressure and fading right out of things to eventually finish 10th of 14 behind Mazeydd (beaten 11½ lengths). He bounced back to chase home Ahzeemah in a 7f maiden at Lingfield the following month, staying on strongly inside the final furlong and only just failing to overhaul the eventual winner, failing by a neck; ended the season with a fifth place finish behind Venetian View in a course and distance nursery, leading between the two and one furlong markers but fading inside the final furlong. He returned to action earlier this month in a 7f maiden at Wolverhampton, for which he was sent off a 7/2 chance; raced in behind the leaders, ridden two furlongs out and challenging despite edging left entering the final furlong, but he essentially proved no match for eventual winner Sholaan and came home 2½ lengths adrift at the line. That form at least got a timely boost by the third winning nicely last week, but this colt has shown just a fair level of form overall to date and was found wanting on his sole start in this sphere over this course and distance; pick of his maiden form would see him in with a chance here but could well be vulnerable from his mark against one or two potentially useful rivals. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
A fairly moderate looking Handicap Chase with not many appealing to me as likely winners of the contest. Amroth Bay off bottom weight has to be respected after his romp at Stratford in March ; as too does Inside Dealer from the Colin Tizzard yard ( two wins and a second from last three runners ) and recent winner Plen Pouvier will also have his share of supporters on the back of his latest success at Bangor. Outside of these three the only other runner that grabs my attention is the Kim Bailey inmate Basoda. Fairly lightly raced for a 9yo this son of Karinga Bay doesn't appear to have been the easiest to keep sound and it is 576 days since his last outing when winning from a nine pounds lower mark at Kempton - he also missed 11 months between December '08 and November '09. Quite often punters can be put off by a runner of this type and assume that after such an absence that the horse will need the outing - that may well be the case here but personally I think the trainer is capable of getting one pretty straight in such circumstances. Baroda can go well fresh and his win last time came after a five months gap. He looks to act on any going with his three career wins coming on ground ranging from Good To firm - to Heavy . Baroda can make mistakes but it's noted that he has not fallen since joining Bailey from Howard Johnson a couple of seasons back and his current trainer is still capable of getting the best out of his chasers. I can't for the life of me have the horse anywhere near that top quote of 8/1 ( Bet 365 ) and with the firm paying B.O.G you will be covered if he should drift and if the vibes are positive in the morning then it would not totally surprise me if he ends up vying for favouritism. I'm more than willing to take a chance on his fitness and wellbeing and the 8/1 makes close to maximum appeal.
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 7:23 am Post subject:
2:00pm Beverley - STRASBOURG PLACE
I've struggled to find the value in the shorter prices horses, with a couple already raced not having the greatest form and from the debutants I feel you could make a case for 4 or 5 being readied but the prices are too short.
Nigel Tinkler probably hasn't had such a well bred horse in his hands as this one for a while. His strike rate has generally been increasing over the last few years and his juveniles have generally kept up with that trend and he managed a 16% strike rate with his 2yo last year.
Strasbourg Place is a full sister to Prolific (aka Able Speed) who won his debut maiden and before a couple of placed Group 2 performances precluded him winning the Group 2 Richmond Stakes as a 2yo. Also a half-sister to Listed class juvenile Deal Breaker, whilst Dam is a half-sister to Royal Lodge winner Atlantis Prince. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
Last edited by drogerson on Tue May 15, 2012 7:35 am; edited 1 time in total
This horse should have races in her, she is a half sister to the useful Bounty Box,
She was squeezed out at the start on debut and raced towards rear, she tried
to make a move but was slightly stopped again before running on to finish a
not hard pushed 8th, she should show a lot of improvement for that run and
while there is one maybe two promising types in this she should show the greater
improvement and around 14/1 looks decent,
Horses running well enough and he does ok here, fancy a big run myself
Mr Jarvis seemingly campaigned this horse over sprint trips last season, with a view to getting it a decent handicap mark, as a 3 year old. It ran 5 times last season over 6/7 furlongs. On its return to the track it was stepped-up to 10f and produced a taking performance, where it was not highly tried and was doing its best work in the final furlong. Today it is up another couple of furlongs, to 1m4, which should see it in even better light. The horse was ridden by Harry Bentley last time and today has the booking of a pro, in Lee Newman, who is a strong jockey who can get this home with a rattle. It's also worth nothing that the handicapper has eased it 1lb in the weights for its 3l fifth last time out, which looks rather kind when the horse really should improve over this distance. At some point this one is sure to win off this kind of mark and hopefully that will be today.
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 10:32 am Post subject:
Going to stick my neck out here
Lay - FLAMING GEORGE (@ 1.12)
BACK - PERFECTLY WILLING (@ 10.00)
On official ratings Flaming George stands out easily. A decent 2nd to Hunt Ball when giving 5lbs away looks very good considering that horse is now officially rated 37lbs higher. Hunt Ball was very sloppy that day putting in a few mistakes and getting boxed in. In the end I think obviously Hunt Ball has plenty more to come and won going away not under a great deal of pressure whereas Flaming George was all out. The step up in trip is a negative for me. He doesn't get a great deal of stamina from his Dam, and full brother was poor. On the 3 races he has completed over 20 or 21 furlongs he hasn't really given the impression he will stay a great deal further and todays extra 6 furlongs could well be beyond him.
For me, Perfectly Willing is better value having proven he can stay the trip last time out. Didn't really get his act together on the Pointing scene and indeed so pulled up on his rules debut. A solid performance last time out behind a now 109 rated rival who has had plenty of experience out on the courses already is encouraging and there should be more to come from him with experience and hopefully jumps a little better. There looks to be a good 20lbs difference in between the abilities of these two, but I think over this trip it won't be that much and can't justify the current prices. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
This C&D winning chaser hacked up last time coming home with half a dozen lengths to spare to the longsdon horse who features again in this race. It has been raised 10lb for such an impressive performance, however J Banks takes 7lb off. So 3lb up from LTO when so impressive, I don't think this will deny another victory for the Harper yard!
4.00 Beverley. Carragold never runs a bad race at this venue and should be in the mix again well @ the price i hope so anyhow. Partnered today R winston who has a good record with the trainer and who's recent record aboard carragold reads 2121. The trainer does well here also. We meet a few of these again but we are better terms with last time out winner Toto skyllachy who carries a 6lb penalty.
0.5win 1.5pt place _________________ Watching those snakes !!!!!!!!
Last edited by bully1981 on Tue May 15, 2012 3:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
2.10 corlea EW
was favourite on debut and ran a very creditable second. waited 8 months for its second run.(best to ignore this run) raced off miles in front under a 7lb claimer and predictably died with half a mile to go. Thornton takes the ride today and could easily get Corlea into a place in this company. _________________ Never pay for tips, Why would you?.
just be cool, think about what your betting and be smart.
Wicked Spirit disappointed last time but excuse that effort has it hated the fibresand when really well fancied and still looks on a good mark based on that win a few starts ago I remember hearing this horse was a stone well in when it won two starts ago and hacked up and hardly moved and that came off of a mark of 66 and runs off 69 here sl must still be more then well handicapped and if you ignore that last run then is massive here and was 6/5 last time off of 72 and expect this horse to be backed before the off Will be much better on this surface and to me is the one to beat and the race it won a few starts ago looked stronger then this "
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