Speed ratings

blackcaviar · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 8:44 am Post subject: Speed ratings

I have put this in here as think it will be of use to many. Now I know a lot of us produce our own speed ratings and I thought multiple heads have got to be better than one.

Do all those that produce rating want to start a discussion of ideas on how we do it and perhaps we can implement the best of all and come up with some amazing results.

I am happy to do all the math etc and implement the rating and post the ratings each day.

Anybody want to get involved ?

Data is not an issue. I have all of that. I'm not precious about withholding how I do mine as I know it takes hard work and technical knowledge that many don't have time to replicate.

About time olbg has horse ratings on the site anyway. Great addition and everyone uses them. If we come up with something good I'm happy to send as SQL files so that olbg can use on the site.

drogerson · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 11:01 am Post subject:

Something I've been interested in for a while.
Started producing my own, last year and had fairly good results.
Problem is I don't have enough time for the 2 hours a day required to input cards/results each time.

I've got the data, and an access database set up with calculations and formulas.
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blackcaviar · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 11:06 am Post subject:

Interested to discuss formulas.

On phone at mo but will come on later and post mine as perhaps I have flaws.
I don't use weight. I have a course standard for each going which means I don't apply going standards. I don't adjust for maidens, fillies etc. I try to keep to rawtimes.

I adjust for lengths beaten, convert to lengths per mile etc.

Back later to discuss further.

blackcaviar · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 12:45 pm Post subject:

Here is a formula for how I generate my ratings

round(sum(100)-(sum((((racetime-mycoursegoingstandardtime+goingallowancethatday)-classconversion)/((yards/220)/8))*5)+sum(totallengthsbeaten/((yards/220)/8))),0)

Whats your forumlas ?

I thought there were more on here who did their own ratings ? I suspect some dont actually produce their own ratings. They just use others and add twists to them and say they generate ratings.

Essentially it all comes down to your own course standards and interpretation of the going that day.

Anyone know of any good sties out there which give their step by step on how to generate as keen to see if missed any key points along the way.

drogerson · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 1:14 pm Post subject:

TIME - Time of Race winner.
DISTANCE - Distance of race in Yards
ATIME - Adjusted time to equal 1 mile.
GVAR - Variable for Ground calculated from standards.
CVAR - Variable for Course calculated from standards.
RTIME - Adjusted time added to ground and course variables.
STDCLASSTIME - Standard Time for Class of race.
STDRATING - Standard Rating for Class of race.
RRATING - Winner rating

(TIME/DISTANCE)*1760 = ATIME

(ATIME+GVAR+CVAR) = RTIME

((STDSTIME/RTIME)*STDRATING) = RRATING

I also calculated a fairly rough formula for working out the value of a length in pounds depending on the distance.

D=Distance of race in Yards

= ((3.9/(D/1100)) - ((D/1100)/100)
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matty117 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:28 pm Post subject:

Never produced my own speed ratings, just use handicapping and a few other factors. But its a good idea, help come up with the best one or a few which could be beneficial to all members of OLBG Win

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matty117 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:34 pm Post subject:

Also if anyone is interested, i would give this a read:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Beyer-Speed-Strategies-Racetrack-Betting/dp/0618871721
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matty117 · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:44 pm Post subject:

Sent you a pm, Blackcaviar Smile

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"Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing!"

nors · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:47 pm Post subject:

It would be good for as many members as possible to get involved with this discussion, and then work together on coming up with a speed ratings plan.

Good stuff.
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blackcaviar · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 5:47 pm Post subject:

Lets start narrowing down then.

Q1) Do you ignore or include weight ?
Q2) What standard times do you use ?

Lets start and get an answer for these before moving on.

drogerson · Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 6:06 pm Post subject:

I don't include weight in rating previous performances, however once rated I adjust for weight.

I created my own standard times.
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nors · Posted: Wed May 02, 2012 7:38 am Post subject:

Is there a defintive standard time that (most) members use and could guide others to as a starting point? The Racing Post?
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