The Lingfield Oaks Trial is, as the name suggests, a trial for next month's fillies' classic at Epsom, and it has occasionally produced the winner of the main event with Lady Carla and Ramruma going on to Epsom glory whilst Look Here went one better in the Oaks having finished second in this race (2009 winner Midday went on to finish second to Sariska), and this year's renewal looks a decent one and features some very promising maiden winners bidding to book their Epsom ticket.
The selection is a daughter of Authorized who is a three-parts sister to the very useful 10-12f Flat/smart multiple 2m hurdle/2m 3f chase winner Eradicate (by Montjeu), closely related to high-class dual 1m winner/Irish 1000 Guineas third Oh Goodness Me (by Galileo) and a half sister to 10-11f winner Huff And Puff, out of a smart 1m 3yo winner (Listed placed) who was the daughter of a Falmouth/Nassau winning half sister to the very smart 5f-1m winner Lemon Souffle. This smartly bred filly is trained by Ralph Beckett and made her debut outing in a 1m fillies' maiden at Nottingham last November, going off an 11/1 chance; tracked the pace until taking over going strongly just inside the two furlong marker, shaken up approaching the final furlong and soon clear despite edging left, staying on well throughout the final furlong run out a resounding 2 length winner from Key Appointment (subsequent dual winner Grey Mirage a well-held sixth). It was a very impressive debut display from this daughter of Authorized, travelling strongly in behind the leaders and taking over going well just inside the two furlong marker, kicking clear and maintaining the gallop throughout the final furlong despite the runner-up closing on her late, never in any danger of being caught. She is bred to excel at three over middle distances, so it was hugely encouraging to see her make a winning start to her career over an extended mile against colts, and the fact she reappears here looks notable given her handler won this in 2007 with a once-raced maiden winner and sent out subsequent Oaks winner Look Here (also a debut winner at two) to finish second the following year; no surprise to see this daughter of Authorized maintain her unbeaten record here and secure her place at Epsom next month.
The William Haggas trained Vow is a daughter of Motivator who is a half sister to the yard's very smart 10-12f 3yo winner (including at Group 3 level) Beaten Up, smart 10-14f winner (including twice at Listed level) Harris Tweed, triple 2m winner Froglet, modest dual 7f winner Sel and 7-12f Flat/2m hurdle winner Vale De Lobo, out of a multiple 10-12f winner who was the granddaughter of very smart sprinter/miler Girl Friend, herself a half sister to the high-class Best Girl. This nicely bred filly made her debut outing in a 10f fillies' maiden at Newbury last month, for which was sent off an 11/2 chance; raced out the back of the field and showed clear signs of greenness through, still towards the rear at the top of the straight but gradually getting the hang of things, working her way through the field and staying on powerfully throughout the final furlong to overhaul Everlong close to the finish, scoring by a length. It was a visually taking display from this daughter of Motivator, her inexperience early on leaving her with a mountain to climb from the top of the straight and the fact she was able to make up the ground to get into contention and then still have enough to get up in the final furlong was to her immense credit. The downside was that she probably had a harder race than connections would have wanted her to have on debut, particularly on what was testing ground; sounder surface here ought to suit (seemingly re-routed here for the polytrack surface rather than go to York for the Musidora next week on what is likely to be testing ground), and she is very much a leading contender here if fully over her debut run some three weeks ago.
The Roger Charlton trained Estrela is a daughter of Authorized who is a half sister to very useful 7-10f winner King Of Argos, useful multiple 7-9f winner Wannabe King, triple 7f winner Walkonthewildside, 12f 3yo AW winner Wannabe Free and 5f 2yo winner Bachelor Of Arts, out of a Cheveley Park winner/1000 Guineas runner up who was a half sister to smart multiple 12f winner (including at Listed level) Wannabe Posh. This well-bred filly made her debut in a 1m maiden at Salisbury last September, for which she was sent off a relatively unfancied 14/1 chance; raced up with the leaders on the outer from the outset, ridden along over a three furlongs out and coming under stronger pressure approaching the final furlong, unable to quicken but holding her position well enough as she came home in fifth behind Oxford Charley (beaten 1¼ lengths). She duly showed the benefit of that debut run when landing a 1m fillies' maiden at Newbury the following month, going off a 6/1 chance; raced away from the main group but travelled strongly throughout up with the leaders, taking over from around two furlongs out and was ridden clear inside the final furlong to see off market leader Westwiththenight by 4½ lengths. It was an impressive performance from this well-related daughter of Authorized, travelling smoothly throughout and coming readily clear inside the final furlong, shaping as though this sort of trip would suit; form of that race has taken a fair few knocks so far this year, however, and takes on a couple of other impressive maiden winners (both on debut), though her yard at least are on top form at present.
John Gosden saddles a couple here, the first of them being the Nicky Mackay ridden Apothecary, a nicely bred daughter of Manduro who got off the mark at the first time of asking in a 1m fillies' maiden here late last year at a time when her yard's newcomers were needing the run, staying on strongly throughout the final furlong to overhaul Appealing and score by a head. She was unlucky not to maintain her 100 per cent record when contesting a 1m 1½f fillies' handicap at Wolverhampton in March, sent off the strongly fancied 6/5 market leader; raced towards the rear of the field, travelling nicely and looking to make headway over a furlong out but short of room, switched and staying on well throughout the final furlong but just failing to reel in Availed Speaker, going down by a short head. She made amends over the same course and distance in a similar contest the following month from a 2lbs higher mark, sent off the 9/4 market leader; stayed out of trouble and made just about all on this occasion, ridden over a furlong out and keeping on well for pressure despite hanging right to see off Zain Princess by a neck. It was a gutsy front running effort from this filly, maintaining the advantage despite hanging markedly for pressure throughout the final furlong; that win came from a mark of 75 and she is still only rated 84, but the runner-up and fourth have both won since to give the form some ballast; proven on the surface and bred to stay this far but seemingly passed over by William Buick here and needs to improve again, for all that's possible.
Stablemate Dinvar Diva is a daughter of Dalakhani who is the second foal of a 7f 2yo debut winner (only career outing) who was a half sister to the high-class middle distance French performer Madagan and out of an unraced half sister to the top-class 9-10f winner Shiva, the high-class middle distance performer Limnos and to the dam of Oaks winner Light Shift. Her one and only career outing to date came in a 1m fillies' maiden at Leicester last September, for which she was sent off a 7/1 chance; raced in midfield for the most part, nudged along with half a mile left to run and ridden soon after, staying on from over a furlong out without ever seriously threatening the leaders as she came home in fourth behind Esentepe (beaten 5 lengths). It was a fairly promising debut effort from this daughter of Dalakhani, and the form has been working out nicely enough with the winner landing the Nell Gwyn last month and the seventh an impressive winner at Salisbury last weekend, and this filly looked sure to improve for the experience. Her pedigree strongly suggests middle distances will be her forte this time round, and the fact her top handler steps her up to this level for her seasonal reappearance suggests she is held in some regard, as does her Ribblesdale Stakes entry; needs to improve in one big hit if she is to make a successful return to action, but interesting she is pitched in at this level on her return to action and stable jockey William Buick has seemingly chosen her over dual AW winning stablemate Apothecary.
The Ed Dunlop trained Zimira is a daughter of Invincible Spirit who is a half sister to very useful French 6f-1m winner Mathematician, 7f 2yo winner/Irish 2000 Guineas third Oracle, French 10-15f winner First Blush and 10f 3yo winner Aryaamm (later dam of 2yo debut/Champagne Stakes winner Saamidd), out of a 12f 3yo winner who was a half sister to top-class milers Barathea and Gossamer. She made a winning start to her career in a 1m maiden here last November, going off a not unfancied 13/2 chance beforehand; led/shared lead, ridden over a furlong out and headed entering the final furlong, but she battled back well and staying on in good style close home to get back up and see off Widyaan by half a length. It was a good debut display from this well-related filly, seemingly clued up more than the vast majority of newcomers are from this stable but showing a willing attitude nevertheless, headed and looking held around a furlong out but sticking to her task well to get back up in the closing stages. Her pedigree is geared towards her doing well this year, her dam a middle distance winning half sister to top-class milers Barathea and Gossamer; remains to be seen just how much improvement there will be to come from this daughter of Invincible Spirit given that she appeared to know her job on debut (mixed messages from the form), but she is a course winner and does has the services of Frankie Dettori for her comeback run at least.
The Richard Hannon trained Varnish is a daughter of Choisir who is the first foal of a dual 10f winner who was a half sister to 7f 3yo winner/Ribblesdale runner up Eldalil, useful 9-14f winner High Office and 10f 3yo winner Monicalew out of a 10f 3yo winner who was a half sister to smart middle distance trio Little Rock, Short Skirt and Whitewater Affair (dam of Dubai World Cup winner Victoire Pisa). She stepped up on her debut run at the track the previous month when contesting a 1m fillies' maiden at Newbury last October, going off the 3/1 joint-favourite; raced prominently from the outset, ridden and making headway over a furlong out when short of room, switched right and keeping on throughout the final furlong but always held by the ultimately comfortable winner Spectral Star, going down by half a length at the line. She has shown enough to suggest her turn isn't too far away at the right level but has asked been asked a stiff question on her return to action here, facing several promising maiden winners; holds no major entries and plenty of improvement needed at this level. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
A colleague at OLBG towers is away for a couple of days but asked me to add this selection to the Saturday selection thread for members to consider. He seemed very keen.
4.35 Ascot: Rothesay Chancer
(Double check the time as they are subject to change if the round course races are abandoned)
Rothesay Chancer looks to have a great chance of landing the spoils in division one of the 6f sprint handicap at Ascot on Saturday. This horse first came onto my radar last August when a little unlucky in running in a class 2 handicap, eventually finishing 8th, beaten 4 ¾ lengths by the winner Bertiewhittle.
That was a strong race with the winner a bit unlucky in the Ayr Silver Cup next time out, the second (Elusive Prince) winning a handicap easily next time, the third Louis the Pious finishing 2nd and 3rd in very strong handicaps in his runs since.
The fourth (Elusivity) won his next start (and his since placed in a Group 3), the fifth (Barnet Fair) should have won his 3 handicap races since and is one to look out for in the coming weeks when getting decent ground or running on the all weather, whilst other two horses to finish ahead of Rothesay Chancer in that race have also gone close in handicaps since.
What made Rothesay Chancer arguably the standout horse from that race was that he was 4lbs out of the handicap (was rated 77) on that occasion and runs on Saturday off 76.
He has failed to get his head in front since that eighth in that strong handicap but this will be the first time he tackles 6f since. In his four runs since he has been seen finishing fast and late from bad draws over 5f on two occasions, he did run poorly on his final start of the season but proved he was in form on his first start of this season when coming second in a pretty weak handicap.
He was running on all the way to the line then (at 5f again) and it is worth noting that one of his rivals broke early from the stalls on that occasion and when the stalls opened shortly afterwards Rothesay Dancer was difficult to pull up (ran 2 or 3 furlongs) whereas the eventual winner only covered about half a furlong before being pulled up. That probably made the difference between winning and losing.
Rothesay Chancer is 2lbs higher than that start on Saturday but will be much more suited by the extra furlong and we know he is fit and in form. The ground should hold no fears, he has run very well on soft and good to soft and his half sister, Rothesay Dancer (also trained by Jim Goldie) had similar ground preferences (trainer quoted as saying “She handles any ground, but is suited by a bit of cut” about Rothesay Chancer).
Graham Lee rides the horse for the first time but he has been in good form since switching to the flat and this horse looks to have a leading Each Way chance on Saturday with many runners in the race having question marks hanging over them with regards to form/ground/etc.
The unbeaten Mon Ami Jolie looks almost certain to make the market, he could be anything but is unproven on turf, nevermind this sort of going and he is likely to find further to his liking as he progresses through the handicap ranks (was entered over 1m at Lingfield this week).
If looking for another at a decent price to follow Rothesay Chancer home try Mati Hari Blue who is proven on the ground, often runs well but can be difficult to win with. _________________ Community Manager - Win A Forum Reward This Month.
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Joined: 20 Apr 2005
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Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 6:53 pm Post subject:
5.00 Nottingham (Class Five, 3yo Handicap over 8f with 10 Runners)
Selection: THE NOBLE ORD (3pt Win) (NAP) (Sylvester Kirk/Liam Keniry)
Today’s sole selection comes in the penultimate race at Nottingham which is a handicap open to three year old runners only and Sylvester Kirk’s The Noble Ord is the one for me here. This gelding comes here to make just his fifth career start and has put in a couple of decent efforts in higher class races and the drop in trip today should result in a win. He did not show a lot on debut, slow away and ran green but the experience of that run showed on his second start when he went to Salisbury to win a class five maiden over 6f. Since that win he has been out in two class four handicaps, first at Goodwood over 6f off a mark of 74 where he was fourth of six but only a length and a half off the winner and then off 73 last time out he went to Yarmouth to make his first start over 7f and he with third of six and within a length of the winner. The handicapper has put him back up to 74 for this run here where he will be making his first start over a mile and on the evidence of his last two starts where in both he has got going close home the step up in trip should be ideal for him and he also does not seem to mind the soft ground so no concerns about that today but the key is the step up in trip and with that I would expect him to go in today if up to the kind of level of his last two starts which have both come in higher class race. Of the rest Speedy Yaki who although has a poor record on the turf has improved over the winter on the all-weather and I would not rule him out but Loyal Master looks the main threat, his last two starts have come in class two handicaps so a big step down in class today and with Justin Newman taking off 5lbs should put him right in the mix but it has to be The Noble Ord for me.
Joined: 08 Oct 2009
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Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 8:00 pm Post subject:
3.25 ASCOT - FATHSTA (NAP) The Victoria Cup is one of the earliest and trickiest seasonal handicaps but without doubt represents one of the biggest betting opportunities of the year. David Simcock for me is one of the underrated trainers of the flat considering how much criticism he received for dropping Dream Ahead back in distance and yet it proved the oracle for the horse. The selection is Fathsta who has been quietly campaigned. Fathsta last season proved a revelation for connections and finished sixth in this race off a mark of 100 and is now running in the contest off a mark of 90 which is ten pounds below that run in sixth in probably what was a vintage renewal last season with the winner being Hawkeyethenoo. The selection then also ran in the Wokingham off a mark of 98 and finished sixth and again just under seven lengths behind the well handicapped group horse in Deacon Blues and that on form was potentially the best race Fathsta has ever run and that was on soft ground. I can see that Fathsta was pulled from Chester this week where the owner considerably do well and i do think that was down to the trainer as he knew that Fathsta had a great chance at winning this victoria cup off a mark of 90. Running last time out the horse did well, the horse's optimum distance for me is seven furlongs and can really go some when asked, and can battle, all the qualities needed to win a race. Fathsta has ran some of his best performances in softer ground and a reminder would be when he battered rivals at York in the Coral Sprint off a mark of 94. I do think that rivals would need to be seriously aware of the fact that Fathsta is extremely well handicapped today. _________________ Follow Me On Twitter
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Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 10:26 am Post subject:
3:40pm Haydock - DOUBLE ROSS / RULER OF ALL
Not much in terms of value today, but I've identified a couple who could run better than their odds would suggest.
Double Ross was probably stretched by the trip last time out in a 23 furlong novice hurdle at Stratford where he finished second when trying to make all. His two races before that were well above his ability when contesting the Neptune at Cheltenham and the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. The latest two of these three showings came on good ground whilst the Newbury race was ran on good-to-soft going. It's his only appearance here which I'm interested in. A second over course and distance on soft ground in the Supreme Trial makes good reading when the winner won the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Albeit eased down heavily at Haydock, but very close 3rd won a novice hurdle next time out before finishing 3rd by less than a length in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at Cheltenham. With winner Cinders and Ashes now being rated 151 and 3rd Oscar Nominee rated 139 (in receipt of 4lbs) with conditions in favour a mark of 127 looks like it could be belied.
Ruler Of All was purchased into the Tim Vaughan yard after a couple of eye catching wins in Ireland in the Spring last year. A flat horse at 2 and 3, he then ran well on hurdling debut in Novemeber 2010 a solid 2nd over 19 furlongs on soft ground travelling well all the way. Was sent back out in January after a winter break and over a shorter trip put his strong travelling style to good use taking up the running 3 out and winning eased down. His final appearance in Ireland saw him win by just a shoulder all out at the line. The rival he beat was in receipt of 7lbs plus a further 7lbs by the claimer, and on next appearance won the Irish Grand National. Third place went chasing after that race and has won all 3 starts so far. 4th finished 2nd in a decent 16 furlongs hurdle, whilst 5th was tried too highly in a Grade 3 next time out but has acquitted well in chases since. 6th won his only hurdles start since, and those 6 horses were well clear of 7th and last. I can forgive the last run in a Newbury handicap won by Celestial Halo, as clearly he wasn't right that day. Usually a strong traveller up with the pace, he was out back and never nearer before pulling up 3 flights out. He's a chasing type and should be better over fences next season but I think if he's readied today conditions will be very much in his favour and could run a big race. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
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Posts: 5691
Location: Sky Blue City
Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 11:45 am Post subject:
3:10 - Lingfield - Main Sequence
I'm going to give my instinct one last chance. I was blown away by the performance of the unbeaten Main Sequence lto up cruising up majestically to take the win. Much classier race today and first real test. Is he a superstar or not. If he wins I might be right about it for a change. First run on the all weather so let's see. Currently 4/1
Was one of my big hunt selections who finished 2nd lto, Simon Pearce was stuck out the back for too long and with an easier path should have won it at a huge price. Price is once again nice and big today. Switching over to the turf, but he'll have no problem with the soft conditions. Hopefully he'll get a bit more luck in running and at least grab a place. Currently 16/1 _________________ Love Outsiders...Hate Favourites
3:25 Ascot Pastoral Player 13
"A lovely big field wide open handicap over 7f at Ascot. Does it get any better? Well yes, it gets better if you can find the double figure odds winner of the race, preferably not highlighted by either Hugh Taylor or bloody Pricewise. PASTORAL PLAYER has shown to run well fresh in the past and despite being at the top of the handicap today can overcome the big field with Daryl Holland on board. Possibly considered a better 6f horse than seven, he squashed those thought with a course and distance win last October by two and a half lengths from Smarty Socks,and even though his mark has risen to 107, i believe he has the beating of this field. None of the remainder look really well treated, Kakatosi has fallen back to a previous winning mark, but with so many improvers in the field, he will need to run up to his very best and then some. Pastoral Player is a stand out for me and he looks idealy drawn in stall 12" _________________ It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping others to succeed.
well my bets are on my main bet is 3.25 Ascot FATHSTA was suposed run at chester and was declared non runner and takes his chance today and is very nicely treated ground will be fine and trip looks perfect as is always running on over 6f so 7f should suit just fine and has a nice draw everything looks in place for a very big run i took 18/1 i expect it too get alot shorter
2.20 Ascot MAKING EYES ground should be fine goes well fresh won over 1mile salisbury easily sure to get a good run for money i have backed it to WIN
2.00 Haydock BIG OCCASION loves soft and heavy ground and suport is coming for this horse the price is dropping has nice weight 10-6 I haved backed e/w looks banker for a place and Conner o'farell is good jockey martin pipe could have a good day today
3.40 Haydock DREAM ESTEEM another big pipe run on the cards here I think for me Lifestyle and Ubi Ace and Dream Esteem are the best horses in the race but Lifestyle has too much weight today surely bt should be in 1st 3 and Ubi Ace is also high in weights and so is DREAM ESTEEM but had a good claimer on board to take some wight off and makes it alot better of than surfing today I backed E/W 14/1 sure to grab a place and hopefuly even win
Joined: 17 Apr 2012
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Location: High Stool
Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 1:06 pm Post subject:
Libys Dream in the 1st race at lingfield e/w, a big run expected as she is in top form and rareing to go, whether good enough to win i dont know _________________ Chookie Orla
8 45 th BOND FASTRA 11/2 one of our members put htis up lto and nearly paid off today as fav hvy grd and should run well claimer takes off 3lb was on the top horse lto and as to be there abouts rf way to go
rite ive backed a couple at thirsk tonight
6.16 It's a mans dream 66/1 1st i like the name and the racing post says it could come on a very lot for it's last run and also heavy grond at thirsk tonight anything can happen.
6.45 Hurricane Rita 20/1 drops in trip wich is very interesting i think for horse that is not suposed to want sprint distances and also winston on board and atracting some suport in betting about 16/1 most places i think will get shorter
I would imagine with it having plenty stamina winston will attempt to make all on the horse.
7.45 Strong Man looks best bet of the night at 14/1 no problems with ground trip and was hamperd last time before staying on hopefuly will race up with the pace tonight and when others have had enough strong man will keep bowling along looks a realy good bet
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