Monday 30th Selections

[mercer]

4.15 Kempton

Laughing Jack 8/1 NAP

"For me i think Laughing Jack is great value here and looks over priced to me Started career with Ed Dunlop last season and started off promising and got fourth on debut won by Argocat and many winners came out of that Second time up beat a useful horse of Stoute in Nibani Third time up highly tried in a group three but flopped and lost form since Joined the Tony Carroll yard and sent over hurdles and ran a decent third on debut but flopped twice after Last time out ran in a handicap off of 75 and looked well handicapped on old form but was giving too much too do The horse was wide and second last on final bend but flew and finished third and was a good run in the end and stayed so well Races off of the same mark here and step up a extra two furlongs and expect a big run"

[mercer]

5.15 Tevez 16/1

"I have backed Tevez so many times and has frustrated me many times but has so much ability but horse comes with risks,it can start slow and also find trouble in running but looking well handicapped now Forget its run of two starts ago in the Spring Cuo because it was poor drawn and started slowly and it needed a fast pace but never got it on its side Best form comes over this trip and last win was off of just a pound higher so well in Has a good record here with two wins in seven starts and last run was here three months ago off of 85 and ran a cracker when fourth to Palace Moon and third Nazreef has won two good races since"

[mercer]

2.15 Kempton

Luisa Tetrazzini 16/1 E/W

I backed this horse last time out and followed the money and was well backed but chances was over from the off when starting so slowly and went right but traveled well after and finished sixth but using energy up early took ots toll Money went for this horse like they know something and expect better here from this horse if it gets out on terms Two pounds lower now since last race and still a maiden after twenty odd races but no doubt a win is near and hopefully here and looks over priced to me"

[lshepherdson46820]

Selections only here please

[tg91pol]

One that interests me tomorrow is the Clive Cox trained Jinker Noble. He was too green on his 2yo debut to do himself justice but followed it up with a smart victory defeating the more experienced and 83 rated Glen Moss at Warwick. Glen Moss followed up that defeat with a comfortable victory at Kempton next time out. The third Desert Philosopher was defeated at short odds next time out at Pontefract but then won well in a Wolverhamton maiden, then made an encouraging reappearance a decent handicap at Newmarket earlier this month so the form looks fair. Jinker Noble started his 3yo campaign at Pontefract, he was well backed throughout the day but drifted before the off and was drawn in stall sixteen so realistically stood no chance over the sharp 6f at Pontefract. He raced wide throughout and that run is best ignored. The winner Es Que Love however went on to win again in comfortable fashion at Newmarket off 6lbs higher. The handicapper has been quick to drop him 2lbs and this enables him to run here in a 0-80 and should be more than competitive off this mark judged on his maiden victory. He has numerous all weather victors in his pedigree and his dam was a fair performer on the turf and on the all weather so he should handle the surface with no problem. There are a few unexposed sorts in Uprise and Bartolomeu but offer no value in the current prices whereas if Jinker Noble hadn't raced at Pontefract he'd be much shorter than the current 10/1 on offer. While everything was against him at Pontefract he should strip fitter for that, the all weather should suit and he has a better draw today to equip himself with credit and hopefully further improvement will follow.

SELECTION: JINKER NOBLE - 8.25 WOLVERHAMPTON - 2PTS Each Way - 10/1 GENERAL

The Tom Dascombe trained Brouhaha is interesting and appeals at a price in the 4.15 at Kempton. He's back on a winning mark and back down into 0-75 company having equipped himself with credit in a higher grade as of late. I'm willing to disregard his last run at Warwick as the soft ground was no doubt against him. He's a five time winner on the polytrack from 31 starts,and has been in the top three on fourteen of those occasions. The last time he ran off a mark of 75, he won well at Haydock last September and some of his efforts at the backend of 2011 suggest that this mark is certainly not beyond him just because him now being a eight year old. He has a fair draw to race prominently and this race doesn't look the strongest with questions marks over a fair few of these and the favourite is a short enough price up in grade back from a break and Brouhaha is proven at this level, has race fitness on his side and should put in another consistent effort at one of his favourite venues.

SELECTION: 4.15 KEMPTON - BROUHAHA - 1PT Each Way - 16/1 GENERAL

[m0000ny]

A few interesting maidens at Windsor tommorow night and it looks like the price forecasts suggest Ryan Moore might be on a few winners.

Windsor 17:40 Hillbilly Boy NB
Hillbilly Boy is the most exposed in the lineup having had 2 outings now but I still fancy his chances; His first start at Southwell was rather dissapointing but Southwell is a tricky course and maybe he just didn't take to the surface. The next start at Beverly was much better finishing 2nd, a neck behind Ingleby Royale. However the form line I'm looking at comes through the 4th placed Ceiling Kitty, she finished 5 lengths behind Hillbilly Boy. She had also had a start prior to this, on the all weather at Kempton where she stayed on for a decent 2nd after missing the start, just getting in front of Poetic Princess by a head. Poetic Princess has since gone on to beat Citius at Bath on her latest start, Citius looks to be the market leader today and I'd much side with Hillbilly Boy on this evidence.

Windsor 18:40 Medea
This looks tricky, it can be hard to predict how these fillies will shape up from there 2yo form and how much improvement will come from each of them. However, I feel that Medea boasts stand out form on all of these; She finished 3 1/4 lengths behind a promising Godolphin filly, Ihsas. Ihsas finished 3/4 on her next start at Salisbury in a class 2 conditions event, not exactly the result you would want to see but it could be that the ground just got the better of her as she was headed in the final furlong. She was still only 2 lengths behind Artistic Jewel and she has since demolished the field in a listed event a Newmarket. Medea should show some serious improvement here having had just that one start, it is a risk with the soft ground but the way she stayed on at Lingfield would suggest to me that it shouldnt be a problem.

Windsor 19.40 Commend NAP
Another tricky maiden here, clearly Air Traffic is well thought of and looks set to be the market leader here. I'd rather look elsewhere though partly because he might just need this run. Commend has already shown promise and improvement on 2 starts, most notably a few weeks ago at Lingfield finishing 2/10, 3 lengths ahead of Yaa Salam and a neck behind the promising evens favourite Almuftarris. He likely needed that run and should be a bit more straightforward today. Almuftarris had previously come 2nd to an unlikely 50/1 winner at Yarmouth; Main Sequence. This was clearly no fluke for Main Sequence though as he has gone onto score twice in 2 starts in class 3 and 4 handicaps easily. The form looks good to me and I feel the fact Commend has already had a run this year will work to his advantage in this field.

[ExoticDancer]

18.55 Wolverhampton

I think this race is between Standpoint and Scamperdale. Scamperdale was well fancied a few times in claiming races but the problem was the trip. The horse doesn't stay longer than 10f and these were 12f races. The horse does look like the winner about 9f out and then runs out of puff. He is now back to a track and trip where he has recorded numerous wins and this is again a claiming race. The last time Scamerdale met Daniel Thomas, he beat him, although on turf. Daniel Thomas needs a bit further I think. Scamperdale has also come in front of Ahlawy before and Ahlawy also seems to be better at longer than this distance.
The danger is Standpoint. Scamperdale and Standpoint have met before, both times on slightly longer trip which of course Scamperdale didn't stay well but he did finish half a lenght behind Standpoint on one of the occassions. The other time he didn't have exactly a clear run, was running most of the times behind Standpoint and the finishing distance between the two was just about 2 lenghts although Scamperdale was easied at the end.
I still think Standpoint is having every chance in this but Scamperdale is going to be a nice e/w price and with a bit of luck can surprise. If he was better at the weights I would have said he can beat Standpoint.

Selection: Scamperdale e/w at 8/1
Danger: Standpoint
Referce forecast advised
_________________
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

[ExoticDancer]

16.15 Kempton

This is an interesting race. There are a few that caught my eye: Laughing Jack, Refractor and Beat Route.
Also, interesting jockey booking for the favourite Librettela in K Fallon, but the last time this horse was raced on this trip it finished a one paced 4th. This race is also a bit more difficult and I would pass this one for something else.
Laughing Jack stayed on well last time and the stepup in trip is ideal, but the race was weaker last time and alghough he is running of a winnable mark I am afraid it may not be this race as he was quite disappointing when finishing 23 lenghts behind Art Scholar in similar difficulty event. On a cross reference, Art Scholar just got the better at the same distance of Reflector who was fancied that day but also didn't stay 12f and the drop to 11f tomorrow is ideal so he should run well at an e/w price.

The one I really like is Beat Route, who has raced 19 times at this track only winning twice but this was on the same distance as tomorrows. He doesn't stay further than this and the drop to this trip is ideal. That race where he finished somewhere behind George Adamson has thrown a few winners and placers since. True to Form finished some 6-7 lenghts behind Beat Route in the same race and has since won a class 3 and a class 2 event, not disgraced in a listed race either. Burnston who also finished behind Beat Route has gone on to win a class 4 event and finished a close 3rd in a class 2 race. The time before he finished a very close second behind a horse called Tornado Force when a bit unlucky having to switch around. Tornado Force won his next race by 6 lenghts next time demolishing a class 5 field and has since finished a close 2nd in a class event.
So a mark of 70 for Beat Route means he could be very well handicapped and is running on his favourite track and favourite distance, worth an e/w shout I think from stall 1.

Selection: Beat Route 8/1
_________________
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

[blueboy68]

Beauchamp Castle 4.45 8/1 eway for me

I'm not getting the fuzzy feeling but my head is telling me she will run well, she
is a big filly and won't be out of place against the boys again, trip will suit and
has won here, her Linfield run was the run that suggested she had races with the
first 3 winning off 83,78,78, her last run was ok to behind 75 rated winner and
the horses that finished either side of her have won next time,
Couple of big stables here which helps with her price and shes been consistent
of late compared to some of these who haven't hit the heights they were probably
thought capable of, I'd be surprised a little if this big filly has stopped improving
and she should improve just for the trip alone,

[Wallsendlad]

Selections only here please

[nelix847]

5:15 Kempton The Guru Of Gloom

Not ran for 231 days but ran well all last year realy having 8 runs and 3 1st and 1 3rd. Ran here twice last 2 runs last year coming 5th 2 runs back and improved last time out and come 1st over same distance and class as today. Ran quite well 1st couple of times out last year from April to may then improved from june and started winning and placing. Same jockey as last twice also and did have the 3rd on here back in july also and been fancied a couple of times as been fav 3 times out of the 8 runs winning twice of the favs.

18:25 Wolves Join UP

Been running constent all 7 runs this year. Winning 5 times out of 67 but 4 wins here over same distance and class. Last won here back in December with same jockey as today. Runs here often but not for last 2 times where he has ran at lingfield but placing last time out coming 3rd at 6/1 odds. Back here today where he has won most times and back on same jockey. EW NAP at 8/1 but think will go close. Jockey Racheal kneller last ran here back on 21st of April coming a very good 5th of 12th on the 25/1 outsider.
_________________
I stake low on bets.

If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.

[cappaburgio]

3.45 Furbelow, ran well enough on debut to think that a win was pretty imminent. Top trainer, top connections, top jockey. Be surprised if it wasn't somewhere near today.
4.45 Romantic, Cecil and Queally always respected and this one is up in trip today. Been gelded and sports first time blinkers. Very tricky race to call but a just think that this one could certainly step up to the plate with so many potential reasons for improvement.
5.15 Intercept, has ran well at Kempton on every occasion it has been there and with the hood fitted today it could eek out some improvement and see it topple the in form Ducal.

Av gone EW on the 110/1 treb but hopefully they will all do better than just place.