Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:00 pm Post subject: Saturday 7th - Horse Racing SELECTIONS
5.15 Haydock – Florida Quays
Jeremy Scott has been doing well with his bumper horses this season and has a 33% strike rate with them. Tomorrow he sends 1 from his base in Somerset for a long journey to make his debut up to Haydock which has to be respected. Most people will look at this race and see Henderson – Geraghty, and a quick look at pedigree says Dam won group 3 on flat and he cost over ½ million dollars as a yearling, surely he should be walking a bumper. But his dam won a group as a 2 year old and that was at sprint distances, Sired by Mr Greely you could ask will add a bit of stamina, but not enough to have this horse being competitive over 2 miles. He has 2 full brothers who have both raced and neither have managed a win and their best form has been over a mile.
My Selection was brought for 33,000 Euros last year and is the half brother to Majestic Mayhem who won a bumper and his dam was the unraced sister to Florada Pearl who as well as being a grade 1 chase winner won the Cheltenham Bumper.
3.20 Musselburgh – Prime Exhibit
Prime Exhibit ran a good race over 9 furlongs on seasonal reappearance, even more impressive when you consider his best form has been over 7 furlongs which he runs over today. He runs off 5lb lower than that run and 1lb lower than when finishing 2nd over CD at the tail end of last season. He has also dropped in grade since his last run and his stats in Class 3 races are 2 wins, 2 places from 5runs. He typically improves for a run, 2007 he was beat by 1.5 lengths next run won by 1.5 lengths, 2008 improved by 8 lengths despite being upped in class, 2009 beaten over 11 lengths then won by over a length and 2010 beaten 3.5 lengths then beaten when finishing 2nd in the Lincoln by 2.5 lengths. Last season was the only when he didn’t improve for a run when disappointing in the Lincoln and Spring Cup in his 2nd and 3rd runs off that season. But considering he usually improves for a run, dropped in distance to his preferred distance, dropped in class to a class he excels in, dropped in the handicap rating since a very creditable seasonal reappearance must put Prime Exhibit with an outstanding chance to find the winners enclosure for the 1st time since July 2010.
This looks a good three-year-old handicap in which the majority of the field boast sound form claims on what they achieved at two in nurseries, albeit a few were starting to look a bit exposed and appeared weighted to their best, but there are one or two unexposed types in the field open to significant improvement going into their second season and making their handicap debut.
The selection is a son of Exceed And Excel who is closely related to 7f 3yo winner Dance Hall Girl (by Dansili) and a half brother to 11f 3yo winner Ansaab, out of a useful 7f 3yo winner who was a half sister to French/Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachir, high-class 7f-1m winner (including at Listed level) Elliots World, UAE 7f winner Hafif, 1m 1f 3yo winner Forever Glory and useful 7-10f Flat/useful multiple 2m hurdle/smart 2m-2m 4f chase (including at Grade 2 level) Albuhera. This well-bred colt is trained by Marco Botti and made his debut outing over this course and distance last November, going off a not unbacked 8/1 chance; settled in behind the leaders travelling strongly, switched out to deliver his challenge passing the two furlong marker and coming with a sustained challenge for mainly hands and heels throughout the final furlong to get up close home and overhaul Galician by a neck. It was to his immense credit that he was able to overhaul a more experienced rival who had gained first run on him, taking a little while to hit full flow but picking up in really good style throughout the final furlong without his jockey having to go for absolutely everything. The re-opposing runner-up and third placed horse won next time, and the fact that this son of Exceed And Excel holds entries in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas next month is a pointer to connections' long-term aspirations for this colt; opening mark of 84 looks a reasonable enough starting point, and it would be something of a disappointment if this colt couldn't maintain his unbeaten record here and make a winning reappearance en route to bigger and better things.
The Mark Johnston trained Galician is a daughter of Redoute's Choice who shaped well on her debut outing when finding only the very smart prospect Starboard far too good for her in a 7f maiden at Redcar towards the end of the last Turf season, keeping on well for second to come home five lengths adrift at the line. She looked all set to make it second time lucky over this course and distance next time, sent off the 6/4 market leader; disputed until taking over a couple of furlongs in, challenged two furlongs out but still going well and beginning to master her nearest challenger entering the final furlong, but she couldn't fend off the fast-finishing Solar Deity, headed in the final strides to go down by a neck. She went one better back at this course next time, stepped back a furlong in distance and making no mistake on this occasion, prominent throughout until shaken up to lead approaching the final furlong, ridden out inside the final furlong to hold off staying on rivals to score by a length from Gabbiano (form worked out exceptionally well). Her most recent outing came eight days ago in a 7f handicap at Lingfield, for which she went off the 8/11 market leader; raced in behind the leaders after recovering from a slightly slow start, ridden along from the top of the straight and looking to challenge approaching the final furlong when crossed by another rival, staying on again inside the final furlong as she came home in third behind Four Better (beaten 3 lengths). There can be no doubt that this filly would've finished a lot closer than she did but for the interference she suffered a little over a furlong from home, staying on well inside the final furlong to take third; clearly up to making an impact off this mark of 78 on that evidence, though the-opposing Solar Deity did appear to have a fair bit in hand when making his winning debut here at her expense last winter.
The John Gosden trained Ghostwriting is a US-bred son of Ghostzapper who made an impressive winning debut at Wolverhampton last summer, overcoming inexperience too come with a sustained challenge throughout the final furlong, overhauling the more experienced Juno The Muffinman close home to score by a neck. He was out of his depth in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket (July) next time, but returned to winning ways when landing a competitive 7f nursery at Doncaster's St Leger meeting, held up and making headway over two furlongs out, staying on well for pressure inside the final furlong to overhaul the wayward The Blue Banana to score by 1¼ lengths. He proved disappointing on his next outing when contesting a 1m nursery at Newmarket a couple of weeks later, albeit didn't help his cause by refusing to settle throughout the early stages, ridden over two furlongs out and unable to make any sort of impact, fading to eventually finish last of eight behind That's Dangerous (beaten 11 lengths). His final outing last term came in a minor contest over 1m here, for which he was sent off a 7/1 chance; proved keen once again under restraint towards the rear of the field, ridden over two furlongs out and making headway into a challenging position approaching the final furlong, but the winner was out clear and this colt faded close to the finish to come home in fourth behind Kinglet (beaten 5¼ lengths). He shaped as though a non-stayer on both attempts over a mile last year, though it is hard to be categorical considering his refusal to settle on both occasions; likely that he will still need to improve from his current mark despite stepping back a furlong in distance and returning to handicap company, and still 5lbs higher than when winning at Doncaster last September.
The Clive Brittain trained Hadaj is a highly regarded son of Green Desert who made a winning start to his career when landing a 6f maiden at Newmarket (July) last summer, going off a well-supported 6/1 chance and duly justifying the pre-race market confidence, travelling kindly close to the action and quickening smartly to lead approaching the final furlong, staying on well inside the final furlong to see off Radiomarelli by 2¾ lengths. His only other outing came over the same course and distance in a novices' contest at the July meeting, for which he went off a 4/1 chance; tracked the pace until pushed along to challenge passing the two furlong marker, soon unable to quicken and keeping on at just the one pace throughout the final furlong as the front two pressed on, eventually coming home in third behind the smart Harbour Watch (beaten 9 lengths). It wasn't a bad effort in defeat, finding only a couple of pattern-class performers too good for him on the day, but an opening mark of 90 for this sphere does appear a little steep based on the evidence of what he has achieved so far; however, he is held in very high regard by his veteran handler, and the fact he was able to make a winning debut it in itself is a pointer to this colt being an above average sort; no forlorn hope here now tackling an extra furlong on his comeback run.
The Richard Hannon trained Shamaal Nibras built on a promising debut effort at Goodwood last June (sent off favourite on that occasion) to land a 6f maiden at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks later in good style, tracking the leaders until ridden to challenge on the outer from well over a furlong out, taking up the running entering the final furlong and drawing clear for hand riding only to run out a comfortable 4 length winner from Flavius Victor. He proved most disappointing on his debut in this sphere when last of six behind Maroosh in a 7f nursery at Newmarket (July) next time, and he only bettered that slightly when fourth of nine behind Pickled Pelican in a similar contest over a furlong further at Yarmouth. His final outing for Ed Dunlop last term saw him finish seventh of 11 behind Misdemeanour in a 1m nursery here in October, but he shaped better than his eventual finishing position suggested, towards the rear until making good headway from over two furlongs out and closing on the leaders inside the final furlong until eased off in the closing stages (beaten 6¾ lengths). His first run for Richard Hannon came almost a month ago in a 7f handicap at Wolverhampton, for which he went off a 5/1 chance; raced in behind the leaders until short for room and losing his position badly over two furlongs from home, switched wide and staying on from over a furlong out to eventually come home in third behind Switzerland (beaten 8 lengths). He has shaped a lot better than the bare result has suggested the last twice, eased when in striking distance of the leaders the time before and then hampered at a crucial stage and dropping back to near last before staying on well down the home straight; little more exposed than some, but still probably capable of a fair bit better from this mark and not to be underestimated.
Stablemate Amazing Storm is a son of Clodovil who shaped with promise in a couple of well-contested 7f maidens at Salisbury and Goodwood won by smart sorts Bronterre and Nawwaar before getting off the mark himself when landing a 6f maiden at Windsor in August at the expense of Sir Fredalot. He followed up on his first foray into this sphere when accounting for the ultra consistent Storming Bernard in a 1m nursery at Newmarket next time, making headway from the rear of the field over two furlongs out and staying on well inside the final furlong to lead close home and score by a neck. He raced keenly on his last two outing as a juvenile, albeit was doing all his best work late on when finishing fourth behind smart prospect Anjaz in a 1m nursery at Doncaster's St Leger meeting; signed off with a second place finish behind Cravat in a 7f conditions contest at Leicester, attempting to make all and keeping on gamely once headed approaching the final furlong to come home 2 lengths adrift at the line. He shaped on a couple of occasions last season as though 1m will prove to be his optimum distance in time, for all he is a winner over both this distance and also six furlongs; makes his seasonal/AW debut from a career-high mark of 88 and chance he will find a couple of these improving past him.
The Roger Teal trained Red Larkspur is a daughter of Red Clubs who built on the definite promise of her debut run at Windsor to land a 6f median auction fillies' maiden here last May, making all and ridden two furlongs out, soon quickening clear and staying on well throughout the final furlong to comfortably maintain her advantage and score by 2½ lengths from Costa Del Fortune. She acquitted herself with credit in defeat next time when contesting a 6f Listed contest at Newmarket (July), going off an unfancied 40/1 chance; raced up with the leaders until taking over approaching the final furlong, under pressure and soon headed entering the final furlong, one paced thereafter as she came home in sixth behind Lily's Angel (beaten 3¾ lengths). Her final outing at two came in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on King George day, going off at 33/1; raced keenly in behind the leaders, ridden over two furlongs out and proving unable to quicken, held when slightly short of room approaching the final furlong, not really persevered with thereafter as she finished last of seven behind Angels Will Fall (beaten 15 lengths). She returns to action at a much more realistic level than when contesting Group 3/Listed Race contests the last twice, albeit she didn't disgrace herself when sixth in a Listed contest on her penultimate outing; impressive winner here when making all to win her maiden last May, and the step up in distance ought not to prove problematic here (dam a 7f winner from the family of Conduit); type to go well at a price if fully wound up on her return to action. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
2 10muss POLSKI MAX plenty of speed in the family if the grd stays softish all the better fahey in form and tony hamilton to take advantage of hanagans absence
3 20 muss JEANIE GALLAWAY same aplies here a cd winner on sft gd so grd not a prob had a run at ireland just beat in cl2 will take a lot of beating imo
3 50 muss ZAKREET won a cl2 on sft before getting bogged down on hvy is well wght and a good draw
4 25 muss MYRAID i backed this lto and it was supported all day and was a bit dissapointing but i expect the softish ground to bring out a bit more
1 35 k FORTINBRASS you could not breed a faster type entered for the top sprint
2 hanagan rides i like are
2 40k RAASEKHA as a grp2 entrie and bred for this trip
3 45 k ARSAADI step up to mile will suit oaks entry
Beepee - Dab Hand Racing the owners of Prime Exhibit have a good record in Scotland (they are an Aberdeen based syndicate) 4-13 at Muss with their 4yos and 4-6 at Hamilton not so good at Ayr but prob down to better horses running there. They are expecting a good run from the horse tomorrow.
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 5:48 pm Post subject:
Ed Walker likes these races and won the final race last year of this series with Red Gulch and would like to win it again and would like to see his two horses in this progress Riggins is a horse i like a lot and still lightly raced for a 8 year old and been with many trainers and run with credit last time out after a bad draw and bad start and trip was too far but still finished 6th in the Winter Derby and on the same weight here so will have a cracking chance but draw is bad but trip is ideal and lots of pace so this will suit the hold up horse and expect a big run Loves the all weather with 4 wins in 7 starts and n beat Mull Of Killough a few starts ago and form looks useful with that horse being unlucky last week in the Lincoln Returns to handicaps so should be the one to beat and will be alot fitter with that winter derby run behind it
"Law Of The Range has beat my selection twice before but not this time and mine has the fitness edge Sooraah looks a very good thing tomorrow and for me she will take some beating She has a poor draw but comes late and stays on so should get a strongly run race so the poor draw will not be that much of a problem Horse is well fit running a few races in Dubai and won a decent handicap Was fancied by a few in the Winter Derby but giving too much to do and stayed on well so this step down in trip will not be a problem with the way they will take off here and a easier race then a few its been contesting
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:52 pm Post subject:
Many of these horse are gonna go on to better things and this looks a good little race and fitness may prove the key with none of them running for a while but the fittest is Mehdi and could prove crucial I am taking Mehdi and the well fancied Eastern Sun on I like Miblish alot despite not coming from the best of stables and not had much sucess for a while but heard good things about this horse lately and last season Was well fancied ahead of its debut run and Brittain said it was the best horse he has had for a while and was steamed into on debut like it would hack up but just won Last start ran in a big race but had problems and had to race wide and disappointed a bit but think this year we can see its true potential Had a breathing operation so something may have been wrong but entered in all the top races so been showing up well at home and now tongue tied but expect a massive run and over priced in my opinion
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:05 pm Post subject:
Laylas Hero 7/2
For me this looks a three horse race and Fahey said himself his two fancied horse Jeannie Galloway and Prime Exhibit are hard to split but will need to go some to stop unlucky Layla's Hero Laylas Hero was so unlucky last week and hopefully make amends here and get us our money back but blame Spencer who always seems to find trouble in running The Horse was well fancied last week and was crusing a few furlongs out whilst the others were pushing hard but got trouble in running and had to switch left and in the end the draw done it with Mujjadel having the favoured side near the rail Hopefully the cheekpieces work again and the smaller field will be better and is on the same mark so for me is on a winning mark and a claimer takes three off so even better handicapped"
This looks a cracking 2 mile flat race on paper and there are plenty of interesting runners to ponder over. ACTIVATE is having his first run for new connections having left Highclere Thoroughbred Racing and Michael Bell to join Chua Ong Salthouse and Kevin Ryan. He looked smart during the end of the 2010 season and early last season, winning 3 times in a row between September 2010 and May 2011 over 1m6f up to 2 miles. He made no impact in the Northumberland Plate having gone off 7/1 and he then took a crashing fall at Goodwood when still going well. He didn't recover from that finishing out of the first 10 on his last 2 start of the year but if he's back to his best he should run well, but he may need this run.
Two that have chances on their best form are ENGLISH SUMMER of Mark Johnston's but he has a bit to find with the likes of Rasheed and Right Stuff on recent runnings on the AW. THIMAAR is another - John Gosden has Paul Hanagan booked for this ride. Thimaar has gone off short enough odds in most all of his starts suggesting he shows more at home than on the track. He won on his first try at 2 miles last time in a slow race so I still think he needs to prove his stamina. He's drawn wide in 12, especially for a front-runner. He's not had a run for 190 days and again, may just need this. He's too short at 6/1.
Gary and Ryan Moore team up with RIGHT STUFF. He's finished 2nd in this race for the last 2 years off marks off 85 and 86 - he's now rated 93 so it's hard to believe he could still be well treated but that may be the case. He was very keen throughout over 2 miles at Kempton in December before staying on strongly to get the better of Dark Ranger late on. He made the running over 1m4f after a break recently, getting nailed by a fast finisher late on. The step up in trip will suit him, he's well drawn in stall 3 and his form at Kempton makes for good reading having finished 213221 around here but he's now a 9yo and carries plenty of weight in a good race. He's vulnerable to a young improver.
One that fits that bill is GULF OF NAPLES, Mark Johnston's other runner. On jockey bookings he is the first strong with Silvestre De Sousa booked and on form that is the case too. Gulf Of Naples has won 3 of his 5 racecourse starts, looking a thorough stayer most recently. He came from a fair way back in a very strongly run extended 1m6f at Doncaster before doing all his best work late on over 2 miles at Newmarket in what wasn't a quick race. He looks the type to need a strong 2 miles to really be seen at his best and I doubt he will get that here with only 1 confirmed front-runner in the field. That front-runner is drawn wide and may not get to the front so this could be falsely run. It's his first run for 162 days and this is a slight step up in class - he could win well but I think I'll wait until there is more pace in the race for him.
I'm quite keen on RASHEED. John Gosden's first string on jockey bookings. He has won 3 of his last 4 starts and also has 3 victories around Kempton to his name. He's improving all the time and showed he was well ahead of the handicapper when storming clear over an extended 2 miles at Wolverhampton last time. He got 13lb from English Summer that day and is now 10lb worse off (English Summer was having first run of the season) but such was his authority, I can't see the form being anywhere near reversed. Rasheed was keen most of the way around but still quickened nicely to put the race to bed quickly. A 7lb rise in the weights and a step up in class meet him now but form lines suggest he has very little to find with the best 2 mile handicappers of last season. William Buick is booked for only the 3rd time and the 1st time at what appears Rasheed's better trip. Rasheed has won at 1 mile so a slowly run race won't be a problem and if it goes the other way, he won't be found wanting for stamina. Drawn well in 6 to get a nice racing position. He will not be far away. _________________ www.twitter.com/MartynCarlisle2
Fourth Estate is well fancied and unbeaten but not sure if this unknown trip will suit so will take it on I am a big fan of the McCain and Maguire combo and they are flying and the horses are all running well and this is a horse i have been waiting for and looks pretty decent and shocked at the odds Sydney Paget won so easily last time and looked a very good horse and improving all the time Won three of its four starts and only loss came to Knock A Hand who has boosted the form winning a decent handicap hurdle off a mark of 134 Horse hacked up on soft ground last time and should be better on this ground and for me well overpriced here
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:44 pm Post subject:
Maybe I Wont 3/1
"For me Maybe I wont is the one to beat and ran very well on handicaop debut and came up against two in form horses and was not beaten far at all and both of the first two have came out and won easy since so form been franked and runs off the same mark here,Lexis Boy got second and hacked up off 120 and Maybe I Wont get beat a head by that horse and runs off 104 Races at the same track as that good run and ground seems the same so lots in favour and has been ruuning decent on the flat and for me will be hard to beat Maybe I wont seems to be getting the hang of things over hurdles now and lightly raced over them but has the most experience on the flat out of these and seems to be translating that form to here already"
Justonefortheroad -3.20 Musselburgh-R Fahey 14/1 EW
Richard Fahey runs 4 in this decent h'cap and although i can give a good chance to Jeanie Galloway and Prime Exhibit, i feel the outsider of his quartet has a very good EW chance in this. Goes well when freshened up and won 1st time out in 2010 at Ayr from a mark of 75 and ended up that season winning off 84 in a class 2 at York over 7fs on G/S from Eton Rifles received 3lbs. That horse is now rated at 111, started his 2011 campaign when 4th in the Spring Cup at Doncaster, winning the race on the far side of the track but 7 lengths behind the stand side winner. Quickly followed up at Thirsk when winning the class 2 Thirsk Hunt Cup off 90 from the previous dual winner Snow Bay and plenty of decent horses behind inc Smarty Socks. Ran a decent race off 95 in the Hambleton h'cap at York when 6th behind St Moritz despite not getting the best of runs.
Went off the boil after that and has had a break since a run on the sand at Southwell on the 1st Jan. Hopefully can just get the better of Jeanie Galloway who is 2/2 at this track. Yabbadabbadoo!
Last edited by deliusmiff on Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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