The concluding bumper on the card looks a fair contest at best, it featuring a previous winner and only one or two with previous experience to have shown any promise to date while another has the potential to do a fair bit better second time around, but there is at least a very interesting newcomer from a good stable to add a bit of spice to an otherwise average affair.
The selection is a son of Presenting who is a half brother to bumper (debut)/very useful 2m-2m 4f hurdle (including at Grade 3 level)/2m 1f chase winner Skint out a maiden (runner-up in a bumper on debut) half sister to 2m-3m hurdle winner/smart 2m 3f-4m 4f chase winner (including at Grade 2 level and also the 2001 Grand National) Red Marauder, 2m 1f-2m 6f hurdle/smart 2m-3m chase winner (including twice at Grade 2 level) Red Striker, multiple 2m hurdle/chase winner M I Babe, 2m 4f-2m 5f hurdle/3m-3m 2f chase winner Market Forces and smart dual bumper winner (including on debut) Irish Banker (placed at Grade 3 level; later placed at Grade 2 level over hurdles (3m)). This nicely-bred gelding, trained by Charlie Longsdon, sold for £34,000 at auction and makes clear appeal on pedigree as a half brother to Grade 3 hurdles winner Skint, himself a debut winner in this sphere, out of a mare who finished runner-up on her debut in a bumper and who was a half sister to 2001 Grand National hero Red Marauder, smart chaser Red Striker and also a dual winner in this sphere who also placed at Grade 3 level. He comes from an up and coming stable that has enjoyed a good deal of success in this sphere so far this term (1-2 in bumpers here), sending out a handful of winning newcomers including a bright prospect in these colours by the name of Pendra. It is slightly concerning to see a tongue tie on this gelding for his debut run, but he has reportedly shown promise at home and is certainly bred to make an impact in this sphere; been found a nice opening here, and it would be a bit disappointing if this son of Presenting wasn't up to making a winning start to his career here.
The only previous winner in the field is the Micky Hammond trained Gonow, a Flat-bred son of Red Ransom who shaped as though the experience was needed when a soundly held fourth behind Doyly Carte in a bumper at Catterick a back in January (beaten 18½ lengths). He showed a fair bit of improvement back over the same course and distance in a similar contest a month later, sent off a 14/1 chance; became badly outpaced from an early stage and looked like being well beaten again, but he began grasp what was required of him from around three furlongs out and came home in good style throughout the final furlong to eventually finish third behind Bhakti (beaten 2½ lengths). He came good at the third time of asking when landing a bumper at Sedgefield earlier this month (6/1); raced in behind the leaders and again came under a ride sooner than most, pushed along half a mile from home, but he responded well to lead over two furlongs out and kept on well for pressure inside the final furlong to come clear and see off Smadinium by 6 lengths. He isn't a flashy type by any means, and has come off the bridle from some way out in all of his races to date; has a penalty to defy now and takes on one or two promising types/newcomers, but has a good attitude and has been found a weak enough race as he attempts to follow up under his penalty.
The George Charlton trained Ballyvoque is a son of Revoque who is a half brother to 12f 3yo Flat/2m-2m 4f hurdle/2m-2m 2f chase winner Eye Candy out of a thrice-raced 10f 3yo winner who was a half sister to useful triple 10f winner Rich Vein, 7f-1m 2yo winner Lift The Offer and 11-12f 3yo Flat/modest 2m-3m hurdle winner Timidjar out of a 8-12f winner. This gelding made his debut outing in a bumper at Musselburgh back in December, for which he was sent off a relatively unfancied 14/1 chance; raced keenly in behind the leaders, ridden along over half a mile out and attempting to challenge under pressure from over two furlongs out, sticking to his task well but never proving a serious threat to winner Rendl Beach (beaten 2¾ lengths). It was a fair debut effort from this son of Revoque, coming under a ride from some way out but battling away for pressure to come home in second behind an ultimately comfortable winner (pair nicely clear of the remainder); winner has won again since, but the rest in behind looked a modest bunch and have unsurprisingly achieved very little between themselves since. However, this gelding is entitled to improve for the experience, showing a good attitude for pressure and shaping as though there was something to work on with regards to the future; yard's newcomers often improve a fair amount for a run and this gelding ought to be involved, but his yard has been bang out of form all season and are 0-13 in bumpers so far (saddled just two winners all told in the past 12 months).
The John Wade trained Pudsey House is a son of Double Trigger who is a half brother to 2m 4f hurdle winner Grove Pride out of an unraced half sister to several winners including bumper/2m-2m 6f (including Grade 3)/2m-3m chase winner (including at Grade 2 level) Our Bob and dual bumper winner Countess Camilla, later a useful triple hurdle winner (2m-2m 6f), debut bumper/3m 1f hurdle winner Double Pride, bumper/dual 2m hurdle winner Charmaine Wood. This well-related gelding raced twice for the now-retired Howard Johnson last season, kicking off with a second place finish behind Chapter Five in a newcomers' bumper at Newcastle a little over a year ago, unable to match the winner's finishing speed but keeping on well to come home four lengths adrift at the line. However, he failed to build on that debut promise on his only other outing to date when contesting a bumper at Hexham three weeks later; raced towards the rear of the field and was ridden along from around a mile from home, failing to respond for his riders' urgings and soon losing touch, coming home a tailed off eighth of 11 behind Bygones Sovereign (beaten 89 lengths). He needs to find a significant amount of improvement on his first run for new connections as he bids to overcome a year-long absence, showing absolutely nothing on his most recent outing after a fairly promising debut run; good pedigree and may well do better in time, but can only be watched on his return to action here for a stable that has a poor strike rate in these events.
The Ronald O'Leary trained Dreamers Gold is a son of Ballingary who is a half brother to modest French 10f 3yo winner Paprika Rouge, 11f 3yo Flat/2m 2f hurdle winner Diamond Aule, recent bumper debut winner Tolkeins Tango and 2m-2m 2f hurdle winner Petraul, out of a 12-13f winner. This gelding made his debut outing in a bumper at Newcastle back in November, for which he was sent off a well fancied 7/2 chance; however, he failed to justify pre-race market confidence, pushed along at around the halfway stage and gradually losing touch from half a mile out, eventually finishing a tailed off 10th of 15 behind Ifandbutwhynot (beaten 63 lengths). Better was clearly expected of this gelding on that occasion, strong in the market and coming from a stable adept at getting them ready to strike at the first time of asking; absence since suggests all may not have been right on debut, and the booking of McCoy here indicates that much better is expected. He has been found a realistic opportunity in which to bounce back and has the pedigree to do better, so it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see this son of Ballingary a lot more involved on this occasion; market confidence once again would look very telling indeed.
The John Norton trained Deportation is a son of Deportivo from the family of smart performers Applecross and Invermark, but he didn't go with a huge amount of promise when coming home a soundly held ninth of 15 behind Jigsaw Puzzle in a bumper at Bangor back in November, ridden along from an early stage and never getting beyond midfield (beaten 27 lengths). He showed a bit more last time out in a bumper at Doncaster at the beginning of this month, for which he was sent off a wholly unfancied 50/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field and again came under a ride sooner than most, unable to quicken initially before keeping on for pressure from over a furlong out to eventually finish fourth behind Ron (beaten 6 lengths). It was an improvement on what he had shown first time up, but the bumper he contested last time was an extremely poor race for the grade and he was struggling for a long way before finally staying on for pressure late in the day; likely to find a few of these too good for him here in what looks a better race.
The only other newcomer aside from the selection worthy of a mention is the Mick Easterby trained Saints And Sinners, a son of Gold Well who is a half brother to 2m 4f-2m 7f hurdle/useful 2m 6f-3m chase winner Bella Mana Mou and point-to-point winner Avenging Ace (twice placed over hurdles over 2m 4f), out of an unraced half sister to useful 3m-3m 1f chase winner Sounds Strong. This gelding fetched just €2,200 at auction, but he does make some appeal on pedigree as a half brother to useful Irish chaser Bella Mana Mou and a twice-placed maiden hurdler (at around 2m 4f); comes from a stable that has its fair share of success in this sphere, perfectly capable of getting them ready to strike at the first time of asking; introduced in a winnable race and market support beforehand would look very significant; receives weight from all his rivals. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
16.30 Lingfield Mr Green 7/1
Mr Green is still well at the weights to perform in this race. I did think he could go well without winning last time because the trip was a bit short, but tomorrow he is back to a mile trip and a course he loves. He only won twice out of 22 times at Lingfield which is not impressive, but most of the runs were 2 years ago when his mark was way higher than this. He's been in good form coming close and hopefully tomorrow is the day. L Morris is riding again and he's been doing well for himself recently.
Dangers are Snow Trooper and Twinkled who are both improvers.
Snow Trooper is getting better with each race and may have improved even more after a break. Problem is he is ridden by Mr Sh*t Kelly who has the habbit of forgetting where the line is.
Twinkled in the same race has been smashed on Betfair at the moment. 3 out of 3 at the track and 2 wins at the track and distance. He didn't do that bad on last run in a more respected company and trip that doesn't suit.
Here's what they said about Brassick in this week's Weekender:
Brassick is a well-named half-brother to four-time winner Skint, out of No More Money, and Longsdon expects a big run on debut in the Wetherby bumper on Friday.
He said: "We won the Towcester bumper with Venceremos on Monday but Brassick is a better horse. He's a big raw type for the future but has enough talent to go well in this bumper. Being by Presenting, he will also appreciate the forecast good ground."
The suggestion was an Each Way bet but at approx 2/1 on Betfair, that's not really going to be an option. So it's on the nose!
Let's hope we're not all borassic at 5.30!!! _________________ Even a blind pig finds an acorn from time to time....
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 8:33 am Post subject:
3.25 Lingfield – Addikt (3pt Win)
This does not look the strongest of fields and for me looks a good opportunity for the out of form Addikt to pick up a well overdue win. Michael Scudamore’s seven year old Addikt has gone seven runs without winning and in his last six has been well beaten but he is a four time winner on the flat with two of those coming on the all-weather, all four wins have come over ten furlongs which he is out over today, he won this time last year at Kempton and he holds a 50% strike rate in class six races with two wins from four starts and he also has a couple of class five wins to his name on the turf so he should be capable at this level, he is also 2-7 in races for four year olds or elder whereas he is 0-11 in races for three year olds or elder. He comes into the race in very poor form having been 28 and 29 lengths off the winner in his last two starts but is dropping in trip here today which will suit, he is also 2lbs (60) lower in the handicaps than his previous effort and has now dropped 11lbs since his run at Kempton five starts ago, his last win came off 65 and his win at this time last year came off the same mark of 60 as he goes off today. He will have David Kenny in the saddle claiming 5lbs and this jockey is 2-6 on this runner. Obviously a big concern about his form coming into the race but down in the handicaps, dropping in trip and comes into a race which lacks quality I can see him returning to form here today with a win.
8.25 Wolverhampton – Waabel (5pt Win) (NAP)
Unlike my first selection this race does look a lot tougher but for me Waabel has enough about him to convince me that he can land this race. He is a runner who is yet to post a win on the turf from eight starts but is a three time winner on the all-weather, all three wins have come over six furlongs and from just two starts here at Wolverhampton he has won and been a very narrow runner up, goes well in the first four months of the year and all three wins have come at this level. He comes here in decent form and is a consistant performer who is very rarely well off the winner; eight of his last nine starts have seen him within three and lengths off the winner. He was a C&D winner two starts ago off a handicap mark of 61 and then when trying to follow up that win when returning to run over C&D off a 6lbs higher mark he was runner up and beaten by just a short head and was winning until the last strides. His official mark has gone up to 70 but that will only come in after this race which means he remains off 67 here today which is the same mark as his last run, it is 6lbs higher than his win two starts ago but still 8lbs lighter than his win at Lingfield at the beginning of last year, so for me this should be a mark that he is capable of winning off and he seems to have taken to this course on the evidence of his last two starts. Today he can take advantage of not being put up in the handicap for this run and William Carson returns to the saddle and he rode him to success two starts ago, he is drawn in eight for this so I expect him to be held up as he was two starts ago and those tactics will result in a win here for him.
Diamond Twister in the 3.20 looks well handicapped a full stone lower than this time last year and it ismy belief that the handicapper has relented too much too quickly. Probably could have won 2 runs back but Shirley Teasdale let Trecase have 1st run of her. To be fair it is a difficult horse to win with, but L Morris takes the ride and he'll be going all out more so today as he goes for the Jockey Championship and he has won on this horse back in his Maiden days. His last run was over a distance too far and today he runs back over the only distance he has won at, plus the distance his only form has came at this season. Lisa Williamson has had 2 winners in the last 14 days and hopefully her good form can continue. At Double figures odds has to be value for an Each Way bet.
Only a four horse race and on ratings Quinsman looks good but keeps getting second and finding it hard winning and may struggle to give weight away and false pace and tactics can cause upsets
Shy has been off the track and will need the run Talbot Green is outsider of the lot but was impressed with its run last time out and stayed in well and any longer would have won and race was won by Ay Tay Tate who ran decent in the week Talbot Green looked like it enjoyed its first start on the sand and was its first run in seven months so should come on lots for that run and will stay on so well"
3:50 Wetherby NAP Kilkenny All Star 6
"With Kosta Brava coming out of this race reducing it to just the five runners, Sue Smiths Kilkenny All Star has to be backed at odds of 5/1 with BlueSq. Smith is a legend when it comes to handicap Chasers in March as her record over the past few years will testify. The Eleven year old will be running back off a mark of 107, the same as saw his last win at Bangor last November. That remains still 8lbs lower than the 115 he won off in April 2010 in simialr company. Age might not be on his side in this race with some younger and progressive runners lining up. The favourite Qoubilai looks a decentenpough prospect but given what he did last time, should be no shorter in the market than the selection" _________________ It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping others to succeed.
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 8980
Location: Essex/Javea
Posted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 1:54 pm Post subject:
4.00 Lingfield
Findeln 20/1 E/W
Red Hand is all the rage and from a powerful yard but could not back anything on all weather this short so taking it on Danube River looks likely to trouble Red Hand but faded last time out and not sure step up in trip is ideal I think Findeln can surprise here and has run at the distance and experience at this trip and could be crucial Findeln done ok last time but had a poor start and used energy to get back into it and finished a creditable fourth and will have come in lots for that and looks good Each Way value"
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