HORSE RACING TUESDAY - SELECTIONS

[jamiess09]

CORAL_CREEK

5.15 THURLES NAP

Although it is the flat season that has me back on OLBG im find myself drawn to the jumps once again tomorrow where im pretty confident on the chances of the mare Coral_Creek in the 5.15 maiden hurdle at Thurles tomorrow afternoon..

This 8YO mare is very consistent and at her best reached a mark of 78 on the flat when winning a nice handicap at Ballinrobe off 73 back two years ago.. She has been campaigned mostly over jumps this winter and she has put in some very decent efforts indeed but theres no doubt in my mind she put in a career best effort the last day when chasing home the talented Scots Gaelic at Wexford in a maiden hurdle there.. In a race where very few of the runners could land a blow behind the impressive winner I thought she ran on very encouragingly in the latter stages and a reproduction of that run would nearly be good enough to take this as there doesnt look to be too much strength in depth here..

Barry Geraghty obviously is a very encouraging jockey booking on her and any ease in the ground tomorrow will be a big help as all her best form is on ground with a bit of cut.. Saying that, she has wet well on good ground before so I wouldnt let that put me off in what is such a weak contest..

[TheBooyRooney]

3.20 SOUTHWELL SHIFTING GOLD 10-1 1pt ew

SHIFTING GOLD is no world beater but surely must get competetive off this sort of weight.This C&D Winner comes in here off a mark of 64 and with a 3 pound claimer on board is effectively running off a mark of just 61.The selection finished 22 lengths behind CAPTAIN BELLAMY last time out but didnt start well plus it is much better over 14f on the fibre sand here at SOUTHWELL.Even so this was a strong race,with STORM HAWK winning twice over 14f here,CARNAC also winning here and also BLACKMORE all in march,in fact there where many more places.

In its previous run here again it started very slowly,and again over 16f finished behind STORM HAWK and BLACKMORE,again it was a decent race with 8 winners coming from in some already mentioned.However if we look at its record over 14f,it should run its race here.Form over 14f here reads 12313,never out of the places.It has won 3 times here in total and is more than capable.In its last race here won off a mark of 64 so should go well off these better terms.It has beaten the favourite here MEDITERRANIAN SEA(2-1) at this course albeit over 12f, in December 2012 and is much better off in the weights(8lbs).

It also beat the second favourite CARNAC albeit over 16f by 9 lengths on 29 of december of last year.Plus it is massively better off in the weights.(10lbs).It finished behind CARNAC this year over 16f by 2 lengths ,but again is 7 pounds better off in the weights.Off this weight i believe it has a big chance if putting its best foot forward.
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*SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG*
SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**

[SmoggyFever]

2:20 Southwell - Adili E/W 7/1


Adili looks an under the radar bet for me and i like the look of the horse to go second at worst.
Adili comes in here off the back of a 4th placed finish over course and an extra furlong.
It was clear this was a jockey's mistake, however, as the jockey dropped his hands down the closing stages.

The winner of that race was Kickingthelily, and went on to record further wins after that triumph, so it shows Adili can mix it in good company.

Untold Melody is odds on but i feel the value isn't there, as demonstrated by the lack of impact when finishing second at Catterick last time out.
The horse showed very little down the stretch and think that could be a factor here

[Zipster]

4.20 Southwell – Prince Of Vasa (4pt Win) (NAP)
My ratings have Mata Hari Blue and Prince Of Vasa very close at the top but just give the edge to Prince Of Vasa. Michael Smith’s four year old gelding seems to enjoy the all-weather much better than the turf, he is 0-16 on the turf whilst 3-10 on the all-weather, he is twice a winner over 6f and both of those have been course and distance wins. He comes into this race having won two of his last three starts, he comes here off a mark of 66 which is a four pounds rise since his narrow C&D win over Joe Le Taxi, and his only previous handicap win came three starts ago off a mark of 55. He is going to have to show some improvement here today with the rise in the handicaps but for me still off a relatively low mark here today and will once again have Andrew Mullen in the saddle today, he is 2-5 with this runner and has only been outside the placing’s once from those five rides, the yard are capable of producing winner here too. Of the rest Mata Hari Blue is the threat, a previous course and distance winner but 16lbs higher than her only previous all-weather win and is yet to transfer her turf form to the all-weather, I believe this will just be a race to get her ready for the turf season and therefor I have to go with Prince Of Vasa.

Good Luck
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[mazzer1]

3 30 seg ALBA KING as done no wrong on fast ground and is 6lb well in 11/2 looks good to me

[smeemartin]

Hi mazzer if your around or anyone else knows ....how is Alba King 6lb well in ?? his OR is up 20lb from 69 to 89 but he still only carries 10 stone all the races were handicaps and all in the same class, I still cant figure this out sometimes

[365pvfc]

3pm Sedgfield
FROSTY LAD 7/2 Stan James NAP
The selection is the top weight and trainer Ferdy Murphy looks to try him again at Sedgfield where he landed a handicap chase of a shorter trip of 2m4f just under a month ago with a couple of todays rivals in behind. MISTER BLOOM was 6L behind that day and was not looking to make an impression on the selection, Frosty Lad going away much the better and offering some confidence that the extra 2 furlongs today should make it hard for that form to be reversed. Mister Bloom has since gone close over the 2m4f finishing half a length down and looked to be staying on gamely after the final flight. The form of that race is however very weak, despite last place that day going onto win over a shorter 2m. Another of todays runners SHANNAGARRY was a good 20L behind the selection over the 2m4f, and has since gone on to have a disasterous run over 2m, finishing over 60L behind. I'm confident the form will not be reversed here. FAREWELLATMIDNIGHT was a good 70+L behind the selection in that same race and looks to have no chance of reversing that form and his only promising run came over a year ago at Fakenham. SAM PATCH appears to have lost his way since managing a string of placed efforts this time last year. This could be his time of year, but I'm ruling him out as he would like a lot more juice in the ground than we have today with a Good to Firm/Good pl going. The remainder of the runners, ALSO JO, MELUA MAID and SLEEP IN FIRST have shown very little promise on past evidence and all are yet to get off the mark.

[jsquire1]

5.15 Thurles

Blue Bicycle 11/2 (Bet 365)

Has had excuses the last 2 runs, it would seem that the heavy ground didnt suit him, but has some good form in the book, and if he can take to the obstacles I think he has a good chance.

2 PT WIN

[ThePirateTipster]

HALF A BILLION - 3:50Sthwell

was a wide 6l winner here lastime over the same distance up in class & also 5lbs up in the weight but should not be enough to stop this horse from winning again.