Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:11 pm Post subject: Horse Racing - Friday 2nd Selections
2.10 Lingfield – Red Somerset (10pt Win) (NAP)
Daniel Thomas has been in good form this year and has produced four wins from five runs in 2012, he is a four time winner here at Lingfield from his seven all-weather wins. His handicap mark was low at the beginning of the year and the handicapper had a tough time keeping up with him but finally seemed to get hold of him two starts ago over C&D when finishing ninth of twelve but this resulted in the yard switching him out of the handicaps to run in a seller last time out where he was back to winning here at Lingfield over 10f so whilst the handicapper has caught up with him he will still be very dangerous in these non-handicap races but for me a mile is not his best trip so I am opposing him today. Red Somerset was a decent runner in the past and has won a class two race on the all-weather and is a seven time winner in class four or higher races but is getting on a bit now with him being a nine year old but he still has enough about him that I believe he can land this race. A nine time winner on the all-weather (thirteen wins overall on flat), he has won over a mile nine times and he has a previous win here at Lingfield which has not been his best track in the past with a poor record of 1-15 but you have to consider that the majority of those runs came in higher class races. He goes well in smaller fields and when returning to the track within two weeks of his last run and he comes here just 11 days after winning at Wolverhampton over 9f and for me he is going to be very hard to stop winning again today.
2.45 Lingfield – Princess Lexi (5pt Win)
Scary Movie has found it tough of late and has now gone eleven starts without winning but that has resulted in his handicap dropping from 76 down to today’s mark of just 64 which is only 2lbs higher than his last handicap success. He has won two from six starts here at Lingfield but he is 0-8 over a mile with all wins coming over further and although well beaten last time out at Kempton then return to Lingfield for the first time in over a year can spark some life back into him and I expect a much better run from him today. Princess Lexi has gone six without a win but her performance last time out suggest that she is ready to win again sometime soon. She is a five time winner on the turf but is yet to transfer that to the all-weather where she is 0-10 but her C&D run last time out is enough to convince me a win is coming, she has a very good record over a mile with five wins from just seven starts and this is the time of year that she starts picking up wins. The handicapper has put her up 2lbs for her runner up finish last time out but she is coming into a race which is not full of form runners so I believe today will be the day that she breaks her duck on the all-weather.
5.30 Lingfield – Hill Of Dreams (3pt Win)
Jericho has not really shown too much before opening his account last time out at the fifth time of asking but can build on that and should be in the mix today. That win came at Wolverhampton over 7f in a class five maiden, he drops down in class today and back into handicap company off a mark of 65 which is the same mark as his start at Kempton over 7f two starts ago and that day he was well beaten into last place but he showed improvement last time out and was running on well towards the end so the step up to a mile may suit today. Hill Of Dreams is my selection here; she has made just four starts but has been in the mix on her last three starts which includes a win at Kempton two starts ago. That win at Kempton came in a maiden over a mile, the form of the race is suggesting that it was a fairly weak race but the runner up has been out to win. She dropped down to 7f for her handicap debut at Kempton last time out and was third of seven and just over a length off the winner, she was off 61 that day and will again be off 61 here today but she is dropping in class and is back up to a mile which I believe suits her better. This does look a tricky race with many in with chances but for me Hill Of Dreams can land it.
6.40 Wolverhampton – Hey Fiddle Fiddle (3pt Win)
Another competitive looking three year old handicap this time at Wolverhampton. Russian Bullet is twice an all-weather winner with one of those coming here at Wolverhampton but he is 0-3 over 6f however his last two runs have suggested that the step up may produce a better result. He has been runner up over 5f in both his last two starts and as a result of that the handicapper has not been very kind by putting him up 3lbs (62) for today’s run, his last win came off 54 but he has a 3lb claimer in the saddle that day and his mark of 62 today is a career high for him so he is going to have to show improvement here if he is going to win but he will be in the mix. Hey Fiddle Fiddle opened her account at the fifth time of asking two starts ago here at Wolverhampton over 5f and then a solid performance when runner up at Lingfield last time out is enough to convince me she can land this race. Her win here was in a class five maiden and then she was back in handicap company last time out off a mark of 63 when she was within a length of the winner and the handicapper has put her up just 1lb for that run but she is dropping in class here today and with her last two starts both coming in higher class races she should be dangerous at this level. She is not the easiest of runners and often plays up before races but if in the right mood today then she will have what is needed to win this race.
7.40 Wolverhampton – Silver Alliance (5pt Win)
Mighty Clarets is due a win having gone eleven without one and has a decent chance here today. He is a three time winner on the all-weather and all three of those have come over C&D, his last win came in a class four handicap off a mark of 72 which means that he is 3lbs better off today with his mark of 69, his last handicap run over C&D was back in November of last year when third of eleven and just over three lengths off the winner when off a mark of 73 so for me today his mark of 69 is a mark I would expect him to be performing off but there is one factor which is too much of a negative for me and that is that when he has carried 9-1 or more he has a record of 0-12. Silver Alliance is the one to be on here for me, he has won two from seven starts on the all-weather and has a C&D win to his name and both his wins have actually come here at Wolverhampton. He won on just his second starts over 6f here at Wolverhampton on a class five maiden but then went eight starts before winning again and that was his C&D win in a class five handicap off a mark of 67, he comes here today off 71 so 4lbs higher in the handicap but runner up at Kempton over 10f off the same mark last time out and the drop in trip will suit today. Most of this field are coming into the race on the back of a solid run last time out so it will be a difficult race but for me I believe that the return to the scene of his previous win will produce a third career win for Silver Alliance.
This horse has racked up a hat-trick of wins within this past few months, a 3lb rise only from its last win (comfortable to say the least) seems reasonable & with a moderate field i think this horse is great price at 7/4! Also good to see Brian Hughes back in the saddle. The harder ground shouldnt cause a problem either
3.30 Newbury Railway Dillon
Railway Dillon is out seeking the hat-trick & is fitted with the blinkers again and i am confident he can make it 3-3. The McCain yard are banging in winners & Maguire is riding out of his skin IMO. Maguire has ridden this horse 6 times & in that has had 3 wins & 3 2nd's. So IMO he gets the best out of this horse. Main danger would be the Nicholls horse (No Loose Change)
First of I would like to point out that this horse has not been penalised for its C&D win on monday. It came down in the handicaps so was at some stage going to get a few wins & I think this horse will follow up on its run at the start of the week. At 2/1 I do think this horse will shorten up to 6/4 or 13/8 by the morning.
Jimmy Ryan is in great form at the moment and is chasing for a hat-trick & also 4 C&D wins. Has been rised 3lb which I dont think will cause a problem especially with Raul Da Silva on board. Main danger however is Cliffords Reprieve so as long as Jimmy Ryan see's this horse out I am confident it will be a hat-trick of wins for the McCarthy yard.
The straight 8 go to post for this Matthews.ie Handicap for 4 years and over.And i think HE'S GOT RHYTHM has a good chance of running a good race here off this weight.BILLY FORD is the 9-4 favourite here and is a decent beast and has a favourite's chance and may be flattered by the assistance of Johnny Murtagh.But if we look at the versus of HE'S GOT RHYTHM and BILLYFORD we can see that HE'S GOT RHYTHM has a great chance of beating the favourite here.
In their lastest match up over C&D HE's GOT RHYTHM finished 3 lengths behind the favourite however HE'S GOT RHYTHM gets a 6 poudns weight pull for that defeat and should run it a lot closer off these terms.In December 2012 BILLYFORD beat HGR by just 1 length and a half over the mile,but HGR is now 12 pounds better off for that defeat,indeed HGR beat BILLYFORD over 6f at this course in November 2010 and is 11 pounds better off for that victory.Just looking at these versus tells us that HGR must have a big big chance here.
HE'S GOT RHYTHM was not far away from MOUNTAIN Coral(6-1) and MCMONAGLE here over 6f on the 17th of FEBRUARY and is better off in the weights for this race over the extra furlong and that could key over the extra furlong,in fact it holds MOUNTAIN Coral easily in all its meetings.The second favourite ELWAZER also suffered at the hands of HE'S GOT RYTHYM over C&D in JANUARY of this,and is better off in the weights.ALL in all this horse if on a going day will go very close here imo. _________________ *SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG* SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**
The concluding mares' bumper on the card looks a typically decent contest for the track with it featuring a handful boasting previous experience and showing varying degrees of promise, but there are also one or two newcomers of significant interest in what could well prove a trial for next month's Listed bumper at Aintree for the winner.
The selection is a daughter of Sulamani who is a half sister to dual bumper (including on debut)/dual 2m hurdle/very smart 2m-2m 5f chase winner (including twice at Grade 1 level) Riverside Theatre, 2m 4f hurdle winner Mayor Of Kilcock and bumper debut runner-up Holme Rose, out of a 1m 1f 3yo Flat/useful 2m-2m 4f hurdle winner who was a half sister to multiple 12-14f winner Ferny Hill, 6-7f 2yo winner Best Try, middle distance winners Guest Right and Ocean Blue and 2m hurdle winner Lomond Hill out of an unraced daughter of very smart UK/US middle distance performer Miss Toshiba. This well-related mare is trained by Oliver Sherwood and makes instant appeal on pedigree as a half sister to dual 2m 5f Grade 1 chase winner Riverside Theatre, a debut winner himself in this sphere, as well a winner over obstacles and a runner-up on debut in a bumper, out of a Flat winner who later tasted success at a decent level at up to 2m 4f over timber and who was from a decent family. She is clearly bred to make a significant impact in this sphere, and her stable has had its bumper team in fine form so far this term (7-26), sending out a winning newcomer a week or so ago and saddling another in this sphere earlier this week (had run once previously), and can generally be relied upon to have them ready to go at the first time of asking. This daughter of Sulamani had been found a winnable enough race in which to debut, for all a fair few of her rivals do have the benefit of experience over her; but few can boast the paper credentials of this mare, and the fact a couple of her siblings either made a winning debut in this arena or went close to doing so bodes well for her prospects here; no surprise to see her go very well here.
The Nicky Henderson trained Glorious Twelfth is a well-bred daughter of Old Vic (dam Bilboa a very smart 2m hurdler), but she was unable to justify favouritism (11/8) on her debut outing in a mares' bumper at Aintree back in May, waited with towards the rear of the field but soon left behind once the tempo increased from around half a mile from home, one paced inside the final couple of furlongs as he came home a soundly held sixth behind Set In Her Ways (beaten 22 lengths). She showed the benefit for that race and a summer on her back when contesting a bumper on the polytrack at Kempton last month, going off a 6/1 chance; raced a lot closer to the action on this occasion and went nicely in behind the leaders for much of the way, but she was again unable to quicken once the race began to take shape from the top of the straight, ridden over two furlongs out and keeping on at the same pace to come home in fourth behind Midnight Minx (beaten 4 lengths). It was a step up on what she had achieved on debut when a beaten favourite, but she again looked ready for a stiffer test of stamina, beaten for speed in the run to the line; respected on pedigree/connections alone but no surprise to see her find one or two of these a little too sharp for her once again.
Nuisance from the stable of Tom Symonds is a daughter of Overbury who shaped with promise on her debut outing in a mares' bumper at Hereford towards the end of January, racing in behind the pacesetters and going nicely for a good deal of the race, but she proved one paced once asked for her effort at the top of the straight and eventually came home in third behind My Miss Lucy (beaten 11 lengths). She again made the frame when contesting a similar race at Fakenham a fortnight ago, sent off a 4/1 chance; raced prominently once again and travelled comfortably for a long way, leading going nicely with over half a mile left to run, but she became badly outpaced soon after and took a while to respond for pressure before staying on again inside the final furlong to get to within 3 lengths of winner Shees A Dante. This filly has shown just modest form in her two outings to date at lesser venues, showing the ability to travel well in her slower paces before proving unable to come up with the goods at the business end of the race; likely vulnerable to improvers/newcomers on what looks her sternest assignment to date.
The Emma Lavelle trained Vic Ar Aghaidh is a daughter of Our Vic who is a half sister to 2m 5f-2m 6f hurdle/2m 4f chase winner Rith Bob and bumper winner Bob Run, out of a 2m hurdle winner who was a half sister to 2m 4f hurdle/3m-3m 4f chase winner Bob Ar Aghaidh, 2m 4f-3m hurdle/2m 4f chase winner King Ar Aghaidh, 2m 3f hurdle/2m 4f chase winner Michigan Assassin and once-raced bumper winner Top Ar Aghaidh out of Stayers' Hurdle winner Shuil Ar Aghaidh. This well-bred mare made her debut outing in a mares' bumper at Hereford on the last day of January, for which she was sent off the 7/2 joint-favourite; raced towards the rear of the field under a patient ride, making steady progress on the outer from over half a mile out, ridden to challenge over two furlongs from home but unable to make much of an impression, fading inside the final furlong to come home in sixth behind The Wee Lass (beaten 9½ lengths). This well-related mare shaped as though the outing would bring her on plenty in terms of fitness, making a promising move on the outer between the five and two furlong markers, unable to sustain her challenge soon after and not knocked about once held. She comes from a yard whose newcomers can improve significantly for their first run, and this filly is related to one or two winners in this sphere; will undoubtedly need a stiffer test before too long, but showed enough first time up to suggest a race of this nature isn't beyond her and interesting to see her strength in the market on this occasion.
The Don Cantillion trained As I Am is a daughter of Old Vic who is closely related to bumper/2m-2m 4f hurdle winner Elegant Touch (by Kayf Tara) out of a middle distance winner in France who was a half sister to the yard's triple bumper/fairly useful 2m-2m 6f hurdle/dual hunter chase winner Be Fair out of a half sister to very smart stayer Teamster. This nicely bred filly debuted in a 14f junior fillies' bumper at Towcester in early November, for which she was sent off a fancied 7/2 chance; tended to race keenly under restraint towards the rear of the field, pushed along to get closer from over three furlongs out and kept on steadily for pressure throughout the final two furlongs to come home in third behind La Belle Doyenne (beaten 5¾ lengths). She was never seriously involved at any stage throughout the race, keeping on for pressure from a long way back from over two furlongs out, shaping as though the additional three furlongs on offer here would suit well (pedigree backs that up); from a respected stable that does particularly well in these events, any pre-race market support for her would point to an improved showing as she bids to shrug off a four-month absence here.
There are one or two other newcomers of interest aside from the selection, the first of them being the Alan King trained Tickity Bleue, a daughter of Tikkanen who is a half sister to bumper/useful multiple 2m-2m 1f hurdle winner Knight In Purple out of a 2m 1f hurdle winner in France who was a half sister to the very useful 2m-2m 2f hurdle winner Dibea Times out of a smart performer in France. This filly makes some appeal on paper as a half sister to the progressive 2m hurdler Knight In Purple and being the daughter of a winning hurdler in France who was a half sister to a useful hurdler in Dibea Times. She hails from a stable that is a leading light in this sphere, often having their newcomers ready to strike at the first time of asking, and the fact her debut run comes here is an indicator that she has shown plenty at home; no surprise to see a prominent showing on debut from this daughter of Tikkanen, particularly if she finds favour in the betting beforehand.
The Charlie Longsdon trained The Prime Viper is a daughter of Traditionally who is a half sister to bumper debut second Middlebrook (disappointing after) out of an unraced sister to bumper/high-class 2m-2m 4f hurdle (including twice at Grade 3 level)/very smart 2m chase winner (including at Grade 1 level) Accordion Etoile and smart dual 2m hurdle (including at Grade 3 level)/high-class 2m-2m 4f chase winner (including at Grade 3 level) French Accordion. This nicely bred mare sold for a very respectable €90,000 at auction as a foal and makes clear appeal on pedigree as the daughter of an unraced sister to smart 2m-2m 4f jumpers Accordion Etoile and French Accordion, with the first named also a winner in this sphere. She failed to make the track for David Pipe but has moved to an up and coming yard that has enjoyed a decent season in bumpers, sending out a few winning newcomers; yard form at present would have to be a slight worry (3-29 last month), but any pre-race market support for this well-related daughter of Traditionally would have to be taken very seriously indeed.
The Philip Hobbs trained Millie O'Brien is a daughter of Milan who is the first foal of a 2m 3f-2m 6f hurdle winner (won a bumper second time out but was demoted) who was a half sister to useful 10-12f winner Black Monday, very useful 14f-2m 4f Flat (including the Ascot Stakes) 2m hurdle/2m 1f chase winner Cabochon and 10f Flat/dual 2m hurdle winner Lawahik. This filly makes some appeal on pedigree, her dam just a fair performer over hurdles who was related to a couple of at least useful performers on the level, one of whom was later a fair sort over obstacles; comes from a top yard that does get its fair share of winners in this sphere, and the form of the stable is picking up again after a fairly muted start to the year; market likely to reveal just what is expected of this daughter of Milan on debut. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
2.10 ling daniel thomas
Been running ever so well this year and came from the clouds to win a similar race last time. Runs off the same mark, the step down in trip shouldnt be a problem and i think the turn off foot will be enough to beat the fav here.
2.45 ling princess lexi
Backed this the last twice and always been given too much to do. This looks an easier race and if closer should take all the beating.
3.20 ling za'lan
Got evens on this horse last night but the price has been decimated my non runners. However still should take the beating on just his 3rd start.
5.30 ling stag hill
Been running consistently and didnt get the best of runs when drop into this easier grade last time. Drop in trip should suit and this is for the taking.
8.40 wolve carianne
Been staying on in most races, i think the step up in trip will suit fine here. Denied a clear run last time and plugged on for 4th, if getting the gaps this will be close tonight.
Lyvius is a very worthy favourite on the back of an impressive hurdling debut success at Kelso last month and is the obvious one that the others have to beat ; but at odds of around 4/9 the bookmakers are taking no chances whatsoever. A more attractive proposition at the odds appears to be an Each Way play on School For Scandal @6/1 with Boylesports. Winner of a maiden hurdle at Wetherby when showing battling qualities to beat Volcan Surprise - he was then raised in class when running a respectable race in a Grade 2 at Doncaster - beaten around 5 Lengths to Royal Bonsai. A further step up in Grade for the Future Champions Juvenile at Chepstow proved a step to far and it's clear that he's not up to that level of form. However if you take the favourite out of the equasion this does not look a particularly strong juvenile even and it will come as a surprise to me if this son of Pivotal does not play a part in the business end of things ; and you never know he may even be up to giving Lyvius something to think about.
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