This handicap confined to three-year-olds has a good track record for unearthing some very useful sorts - notable recent winners including Gitano Hernando, Paintball and Barbican - and this year's renewal looks a typically competitive affair in which a handful of completely unexposed rivals cross swords.
The selection is a son of Medaglia D'Oro who is a half brother to very smart US dirt sprinter/miler American Miss, useful US 6-9f winner Lions Story, multiple US 6f-1m winner A Tad Devine and dual US 7f winner Double Brilliant, out of a dual winner in the US who was a half sister to a handful of winners including the fairly useful Ameri Princess. This colt is trained by Jeremy Noseda and made his debut outing in a 1m maiden at Haydock last August, going off a well fancied 7/4 chance; went well at the back of the main group and made smooth progress over on the far side from the top of the straight, leading well over a furlong from home, quickening smartly approaching the final furlong and was always holding Badea despite running green and appearing to get a bit tired in the rain-softened ground, scoring by half a length. He wasn't seen again for whatever reason after that (was due to contest a Listed Race at Salisbury before being withdrawn on the morning of the race), but the fact remains that this son of Medaglia D'Oro is a bright prospect based on the evidence of his debut victory which came at the expense of three subsequent winners. He won with a fair bit more in hand than the eventual winning margin suggests, hitting the front plenty soon enough and appearing to also get a bit tired in the ground (quicker conditions ought to suit him well here); looked type physically to do a lot better at three over this sort of trip, and an entry in the Irish 2000 Guineas gives an idea as to connections' longer term ambitions with this colt; begins life from a very workable mark of 80 and, with Ryan Moore booked, this colt ought to go very well on his return to action; pattern-race prospect.
The Marco Botti trained Kingsdesire is a son of King's Best who is the first foal of a maiden half sister to the very smart 7-10f winner (including on several occasions at Group 2/3 level) Special Kaldoun, useful French/Canadian sprinter Privalova and 10f 3yo AW winner Duke Of Clarence out of a 10f winner who was a half sister to very smart 7-9f winner (including at Grade 1 level) La Kounia. This colt made his debut outing in a 1m auction maiden at Kempton back in December, for which he went off the 2/5 market leader (tongue tied); broke slowly and raced towards the rear of the field as a result, travelling well throughout and slicing through rivals on the bit two furlongs out to soon lead, nudged along to seal matters entering the final furlong as he ran out an impressive 2 length winner from Macy Anne. It was a visually taking display from this colt, admittedly against what looked a fairly modest bunch in the main though the third has won twice off marks of 68 and 74; capable of much better than the bare form of his debut victory can communicate, and notable that his stable took this three years ago with subsequent high-class colt Gitano Hernando; ought to be competitive from an opening mark of 85, and the step up in distance here also should suit this son of King's Best; intriguing prospect for the season ahead.
The Mark Johnston trained Modernism is a son of Monsun who is a half brother to the quirky but high-class 8-11f UK/US winner (including at Grade 2/Group 3 level) Tam Lin, 6-7f winner Finders Keepers, fairly useful dual 7f 2yo winner Night Of Fortune, French 10f 3yo winner Vintage Gardenia and 7f 2yo winner Finger Of Fate, out of a 7f 2yo winner/Irish/French 1000 Guineas third who was the daughter of French Oaks winner Caerlina. This well-bred colt made his debut outing in a 1m 1½f maiden at Wolverhampton 17 days ago, going off an 11/2 chance; raced up with the pacesetter until taking over approaching the two furlong marker, ridden and holding a handy advantage at the top of the straight, finding plenty out in front and staying on well throughout the final furlong to score by a length from Ruacana. It was a typically professional performance for a newcomer from this stable, but he also revealed a good amount of ability on that occasion and is bred to be above average; form took a significant knock when the beaten favourite (third) was again turned over at a short price (4/11) a couple of days ago; open to improvement nevertheless, and an opening mark of 80 doesn't look hugely excessive, but one or two others in the field created a better impression in making winning debuts; boasts a similar profile to last year's winner Barbican.
The David Simcock trained Montaser is a well-bred son of Rail Link who made a winning start to his career when landing a 1m maiden at Ffos Las last August (6/4), held up in last until making smooth progress on the outer from the three furlong marker, shaken up to challenge then leader Tidal Way approaching the final furlong and drew clear with that rival, taking a little while to find top stride (green) but staying on well to lead in the final 100 yards, scoring by a neck (pair nine lengths clear). He was unable to maintain his 100 per cent record when contesting a 1m nursery on rain-softened ground at Ayr the following month, for which he was sent off the 11/4 market leader; raced towards the rear of the field under a hold up ride, travelling well for a long way, switched left and making headway over two furlongs out, responding well for pressure throughout the final furlong despite still exhibiting signs of inexperience but proved no match for Zakreet, going down by 2¾ lengths. The fact he was able to notch a win at all at two is a testament to his abilities, still looking in need of the experience on his handicap bow when chasing home a more experienced rival following his maiden win; certain to have improved for another winter on his back and will absolutely relish the step up in distance here, so not overly hard to envisage a bold showing from this son of Rail Link; stable been a bit quiet in the past month though.
The John Gosden trained Ex Oriente is a son of Azamour who was well fancied on his first two career outings last summer in 7f maidens at Newmarket (July) and Sandown, but, although building on a low-key debut effort at HQ, he didn't really progress as expected last term thereafter, signing off with a listless effort in first-time headgear in a 1m nursery at Yarmouth that followed an odds on defeat in maiden company at Wolverhampton. However, it looked as though he was finally ready to show on the track what he had been at home last summer when making a winning reappearance in a 10f maiden at Lingfield back in January; raced keenly under restraint in midfield but travelling strongly into contention on the approach to the home straight, looking a bit reluctant under pressure but sticking on well throughout the final furlong to get up in the final 50 yards and see off Key Gold by half a length. He has the talent but perhaps not the application, needing plenty of persuasion last time to get his head in front though he did show a sustained change of pace in the closing stages to overhaul a well-fancied rival; form of that win looks nothing more than fair, and this gelding will need to put his best foot forward not competing in a handicap where there could be one or two potential pattern-class performers racing off similar sorts of marks; others open to more improvement.
The Gerard Butler trained Hallmark Star is a son of Nayef from a very good middle distance family that includes King George winner Pentire, and he shaped as though having a fair amount of ability in a trio of outings at two, doing all his best work late on in the piece when sixth behind exciting prospect Thomas Chippendale in a 1m maiden at Leicester last September (beaten 7 lengths). He took a step forward, albeit not quite improving quite as much as expected, when contesting an extended 1m auction maiden at Wolverhampton next time (7/4 favourite); raced close to the action from the outset, switched left over a furlong out to deliver his challenge and lead briefly entering the final furlong, but he was unable to sustain his effort and had to settle for second behind Feisty Champion (beaten 1¼ lengths). His third and final outing at two came in a similar contest over the same distance at Kempton in November, going off a 13/2 chance; raced a little worse than midfield having been dropped in, ridden along and making headway from over two furlongs out, continuing to stay on throughout the final furlong to eventually come home in third behind Ocean Tempest (beaten 1¾ lengths). This gelding's overall level of form so far is nothing more than okay, an opening mark of 78 looking quite harsh on what he achieved at two; however, he did look the type who would do quite a bit better at three over middle distances, bred as he is, and although this may be flying a little too high on his comeback run, no surprise to see this son of Nayef come good at some stage in 2012.
The Andrew Balding trained Goldoni was highly tried on occasions at two, shaping with real promise on his debut outing in a 7f maiden at Sandown won by John Lightbody prior to contesting the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot eight days later, in which he finished a soundly held ninth behind Maybe (beaten 12 lengths). He narrowly failed to get off the mark at the third time of asking when back in maiden company for a 7f maiden at Epsom two months later; raced in midfield for the most part, ridden along over two furlongs out but making good headway approaching the final furlong, staying on in good style throughout the final furlong and only just failing to overhaul Repeater, going down by a nose. However, he went one better on his handicap debut when grinding out victory in a 1m nursery at Glorious Goodwood a couple of weeks later, locked in a furlong-long duel with eventual runner-up West Leake Hare before just getting the verdict on the nod, scoring by a short head. He didn't disgrace himself when finishing fourth behind Coupe De Ville in a 1m Listed contest at Salisbury the following month, shaken up over two furlongs out and looking to make headway but finding himself boxed in behind runners, switched right entering the final furlong and keeping on nicely (beaten 4½ lengths). However, his final outing saw him finish last of seven behind Caledonian Spring in a similar contest at Haydock in September, ridden over three furlongs out and soon unable to make any impression on the leaders, weakening under pressure over a furlong out and eventually failing to beat a rival home (beaten 9 lengths). He has been gelded in the interim and faces a tough task now moving back into handicap company from a mark of 83 against a handful of unexposed rivals; step up in distance ought to at least suit.
A very good race of its type, featuring a couple of previous winners and a clutch of well-related newcomers from leading stables in what is sure to prove an informative contest, particularly with regards to the Champion Bumper at Punchestown at the end of this month - previous winners of this race include Universal Truth, Hidden Universe and Waaheb.
The selection is a son of Old Vic who is a half brother to dual 12f 3yo Flat/smart 2m-2m 5f hurdle winner (including at Grade 3 level)/very smart 2m-2m 4f chase winner (including twice at Grade 1 level as a novice) Sky's The Limit, 10-13f Flat/2m 4f-2m 5f hurdle winner High Hope, 2m Flat/bumper winner A Hit Is A Hit, useful French stayer High Saga, French 6f 3yo winner Highness Girl, dual German 1m winner Teutonic Lass and very smart Turkish middle distance performer Highness Daughter, out of a very smart German middle distance performer (German Oaks winner) who was a half sister to German 12f Group 1 winner Helikon and high-class German middle distance stayer Hydros. This well-bred gelding, trained by Henry De Bromhead, sold for €70,000 at auction at three (went for €40,000 as a yearling) and makes plenty of appeal on pedigree as a half brother to a whole host of winners, most notably high-class jumper Sky's The Limit and useful French stayer High Saga, out of a German Oaks winner from a good family. He comes from a stable that does particularly well in bumpers (5-19 this term) and can often have them ready to strike at the first time of asking, and the fact that his astute handler starts him off at Listed level says a lot about the regard in which he holds this gelding. This does look an above average race in which he will face a couple of previous winners and a handful of fellow newcomers, most of whom are nicely bred and from powerful yards; however, this son of Old Vic boasts an attractive pedigree and hails from a regular source of winners in this sphere, so disappointing if he couldn't go very well on debut here.
The Ted Walsh trained Summer Star is a beautifully bred daughter of Medicean who shaped with promise in a strongly contested bumper at Punchestown in February, going off a 7/1 chance and coming home in fourth behind very good prospect Ange Blanc, doing all her best work inside the final furlong having been waited with towards the rear of the field (beaten 4¼ lengths). She duly built on the promise of that debut effort when landing a course and distance mares contest in impressive fashion a couple of weeks ago; raced towards the rear of the field under a waiting ride once again, making good progress through runners into a challenging position on the approach to the home straight, taking up the running going easily over a furlong out and coming clear with ease to run out a 14 length winner from Carrigeen Lonicera. It was a deeply impressive performance from this daughter of Medicean, travelling powerfully throughout and making up ground easily on the leaders, still on the bridle when taking over down the straight and cruising clear for an effortless victory. Her pedigree alone always suggested she could well be capable of making a big splash in this sphere and she already looks a smart prospect, though she now has to carry a penalty against the boys in what looks an above average race; no doubting she is a smart prospect.
The other previous winner in the field is the Christy Roache trained Knocklong, a JP McManus owned son of Milan who shaped with promise on his debut run in a 2m maiden hurdle at Gowran Park in February, making sustained headway from the rear from half a mile out and staying on well from the final flight to eventually come home in third behind Ballynacree (beaten 7½ lengths). He got off the mark in this sphere at the first time of asking when narrowly winning a bumper at Naas three weeks ago, sent off the 7/4 market leader; raced on the outer at the rear of the field, ridden along in touch three furlongs out and making headway for pressure to challenge over a furlong out, staying on well throughout the final to get up in the dying strides and overhaul Operating to score by a nose. It was a hard fought success for this gelding, needing the entire straight to hit the front, showing a very willing attitude under pressure for one so inexperienced but equally shaping as though he will stay further in time. He is now forced to carry a penalty against a fellow previous winner and several newcomers from good stables with appealing pedigrees, so more will definitely be needed in order for this son of Milan to maintain his unbeaten record in bumpers; top connections clearly envisage improvement to bring him here rather than put him away for a hurdling campaign next season.
The Dessie Hughes trained Lady Of Glencoe is a daughter of Marju who is a half sister to 14f-2m winner Tarabut, bumper/very useful 2m-2m 4f hurdle (including at Listed level) Elsafeer and dual bumper winner Anychancedave, out of a maiden sister to 10f 3yo Listed winner Siyadah and a half sister to smart middle distance performer Esloob, family of Teleprompter and Ouija Board. This nicely bred filly made her debut in a 2m maiden hurdle at Wexford a couple of weeks ago, for which she was sent off an unconsidered 25/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field for the most part and was never at any stage close to the action, but she did at least make headway from after the second last for firm hands and heels riding to come home in fifth behind favourite Darwins Theory (beaten 13 lengths). It was nothing more than a fair debut effort from this daughter of Marju in what was an ordinary maiden hurdle, but this filly is at least bred to be better suited by this scenario and a couple of her siblings are winners in this sphere; represents a shrewd handler, and interesting she is upped to this level for her bumper debut, but otherwise best watched with plenty of improvement required to figure.
There are a few other interesting newcomers aside from the selection, none more so than the Edward Hales trained Buttery Lane, a son of Westerner who is a half brother to bumper (debut)/useful 2m hurdle/2m 3f-3m chase winner Prince Of Pirates out of a bumper winner (placed over hurdles) who was a full sister to fairly useful 2m 4f-3m hurdle/smart dual 3m chase winner (including at Grade 3 level) Give Over and a half sister to bumper debut winner Twentyfourcarat out of an unraced half sister ton smart staying hurdler Miss Nero. This gelding makes a fair amount of appeal on pedigree as a half brother to a debut winner in this sphere who went on to prove a fairly useful jumper, Prince Of Pirates, whilst his dam was a winner in this sphere and a half sister to smart jumper Give Over. He comes from a stable that has winners in this sphere now and again (1-6 so far this season), and the fact this son of Westerner debuts here rather than at a lower level suggests he has shown plenty at home; interesting to see how this nicely bred sort goes in the market beforehand.
The Charlie Swan trained Bob The Goon is a son of Golan who is the fourth foal of a maiden half sister to dual bumper (including on debut)/2m 4f-2m 6f hurdle/2m 4f-3m 6f chase/Cross Country winner Uncle Junior and bumper debut winner Nesserian out of a dual bumper/2m 6f hurdle winner. This gelding's sales price has risen gradually when passing through the ring, realising £20,000 last December having sold for £14,500 earlier in the year, and he makes some appeal on pedigree as the son of a half sister to dual bumper/useful jumper Uncle Junior and also a winning newcomer in this sphere. He comes from a respected stable that does well in this sphere (5-30 so far this season), capable of getting them ready to strike at the first time of asking; booking of Nina Carberry another plus point, and this son of Golan is certainly one of the likelier looking newcomers in the field.
The Elizabeth Doyle trained Bonheur Secret is a French-bred son of Bernebeau who is a half brother to useful and multiple French 7-10f winner Murphy, French 11-13f winner Dartigan, French 8-10f Flat/1m 7f-2m 2f hurdle winner Aconit and useful 1m 7f-2m 2f hurdle/2m 3f chase winner La Trattoria, out of a 1m winner in France who was a half sister to the dam of 2m-2m 1f hurdle/high-class triple 2m chase winner (including at Grade 2 level) Mahogany Blaze and 2m-2m 2f hurdle/dual 2m 4f chase winner Calusa Crystal, family of high-class middle distance performer Dancing Maid. This gelding sold for €9,000 at auction and is another to make a degree of appeal on pedigree, being a half sister to a handful of winners in France including on the Flat, out winning miler who was a half sister to the dam of smart 2m jumper Mahogany Blaze. He comes from a decent stable that current houses Kauto Star's hugely promising younger half brother Kauto Grand Mogol, whilst Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Al Ferof was a bumper winner for this yard at the beginning of his career; stable in decent form at present, so any pre-race market support for this gelding would look interesting.
One other newcomer worthy of a mention is the Francis Flood trained Kilmainham, a son of Celtic Swing who is a half brother to 2m-2m 4f hurdle winner Liscalhall and very useful bumper winner Valleymount (Grade 2 placed), out of a multiple 12f Flat/smart dual 2m hurdle winner (at Grade 2/3 level) who was a half sister to multiple 2m-2m 4f hurdle/2m 4f chase winner Imaalhall and 2m Flat/multiple 2m-2m 2f hurdle winner Slievecorragh. This gelding is from a family that has served these connections very well over the years, his dam a smart 2m hurdler who has produced a couple of winners already including a winner in this sphere; however, his stable wouldn't be renowned for its prowess at getting them ready to strike at the first time of asking and although it's encouraging that this gelding is thought good enough to debut at this level, probably best watched on this occasion in what looks a potentially hot race. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
I don't normally get involved in conditional jockeys races. However, PROMISING ANSHAN stood out to me as I believe him to be well treated over fences let alone his lower mark over hurdles. I think it pays to be with the 'better' jockeys in these sorts of races and it certainly pays to be with the runners from the bigger stables, such as Paul Nicholls.
Promising Anshan has been running over fences for the last 2 seasons, often at a higher level than todays race, winning just once from 7 starts but he is reverted back to hurdles as a bit of a confidence boost after falling the last twice. In 3 runs this year he has shown plenty enough to suggest he can win a good race - on his seasonal reappearance in October he was backed in to 6/1 joint second favourite in the United House Gold Cup over 3 miles at Ascot. He made a mistake 3 out and despite travelling strongly again after I think it took more out of him than could have been foreseen as he failed to quicken, plugging on at the same pace for 3rd, 18 lengths clear of 4th. The winner, Exmoor Ranger, went on to finish 3rd in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
Upped in trip to 3m4f next time out he failed to make an impact before falling, likely that he found the trip plenty far enough. He was dropped back to 3 miles on his most recent start and again he was staying on to good effect in 3rd when falling 3 out. The pace of that race was rather slow and it didn't suit because though he didn't stay 3m4f, he looks a stayer and a strongly run 3 miles will suit him down to the ground. Kempton the day was a sharp enough test and a stiffer 3 miles around Ascot will also help. The form of his latest run was given a boost when the winner, Fruity O'Rooney, placed on his next 2 starts including a close up 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival.
Going back over hurdles is likely to provide a stronger pace and with so many pace horses in the races, this should work out perfectly. FIULIN likes to race up with the speed, BARNHILL BROWNIE, MR JAY DEE and TASHEBA are all others who can force a gallop when it is needed. The combination of Paul Nicholls and Harry Derham doesn't reduce confidence whatsoever - the stable are in fine form with 5 winners from 13 runners in the last 14 days with a further 3 placed. Harry Derham has a 23% strike rate for Nicholls over hurdles, showing an LSP of +£5.13.
JOSEPH LISTER appeals from a handicapping point of view having finished 4th in a strong Grade 2 handicap at Ascot in January. He was backed in to 4/1 favourite for that race so connections must feel he is well treated - he is 2lb lower in terms of ratings today but he loses 5lb of hs jockeys claim so effectively 3lb worse off. He is unproven at 3 miles which is a worry but he has often shaped as if further will treat him well - this race is obviously weaker than the Grade 2 and he represents top connections in Nicky Henderson but I have my concerns, mainly over seeing out the trip in what is sure to be a stiff test of stamina. It's likely that he will shorten from quotes of 8/1.
Another big stable in the shape of Donald McCain have SILVER GYPSY. He's probably a touch on the big side at 14/1 but he also has stamina concerns having never raced over 3 miles. He did run in a very quick 2m4f race last time when staying on for 3rd from well out the back so I would be more convinced that he will stay than the Henderson runner. The form of that race is strong in the context of this race because the winner, Big Easy, had won his previous start and ran a very good race in 7th next time out. 2nd placed Timesawastin was readily held that day despite only being beaten just over a length but he gave the form some strength when winning off 6lb higher next time out. Horses in behind that have come out and run well since include Cantlow who finished 3rd in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham. He needs to improve a little to get involved but he can run on for a place.
The inform KASBADALI for Oliver Sherwood can also be given some sort of chance, especially now stepped back up in trip but this race is stronger than his normal race. He was running on well over 2m6f last time at Sandown and the form looks okay as the winner had won only 2 starts earlier and could have been considered well treated whereas the 2nd had won his previous start but there was nothing of note in behind and the race rather lacked strength in depth. His 2nd to Sivola De Sivola is better form, but again the form in behind hasn't worked out as well as one would have hoped. He races here off the same mark with a fairly useful 5lb claimer, if not as good as some conditionals. His stable, however, could be in better form and I think Promising Anshan is better treated and the latter is a slightly better price. _________________ www.twitter.com/MartynCarlisle2
Hey folks I come with a maximum bet this afternoon in the shape of Friendly Society in the last race at Limerick, the 2m3f handicap chase.
Its Michael Hourigans local track and he has a really decent level stakes profit for the last 12 months with his runners here, +18.. The selection ran really well at this venue the last day in a 2m handicap hurdle, when he was beaten 3 lengths by a really really well handicapped horse of Willie Mullins, Immediate Response.. The rest of the field were well stung out behind the front two giving the impression that the front two were well on top on the day..
The selections chase form for me is equally impressive and is probably the reason why he is 16 lbs higher over them! He beat Shane Rock here at Limerick over 2m over the Christmas period which looks a very good run indeed and on that run alone id say a mark of 118 shouldnt be beyond him.. His run behind Bishopsfurze would also give you a bit of hope as he was only beaten 5 lengths by the winner who should prove to be a bit better than a 118 animal IMO..
The trainer does well at the track, horse has shown very good form at the track with a win and a few placings, jockey on board is very capable and takes off 5lbs.. He won his maiden on good ground so that wouldnt put me off atal!
Tipped him and backed 2 runs back at Kempton who does front run and did so here and made all at odds of 15/2. Said not to back him next time out unless 8/1 or more for place and he opend up at 5/2 and ended up been 11/4 fav so didnt back as not worth the EW but did run very well and again lead most of the way and just got beet on the line and only half a length from winning. Was high weight last time out then use to also of 9-11 and last 2 times out been 9-3 and now lower still of 9-1. Runs best in class 5 and 6 races and not ran many class 4 races where he ran4 runs ago only coming 6th of 9th with jockey luke morris. Today is same jockey Darren Edward Egan as last 3 times and can front run on April fool and others as well and has had a good 2nd on 30th of March on Chookie Hamilton in a class 4 race. EW NAP.
Non runner what a joke. _________________ I stake low on bets.
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
Last edited by nelix847 on Sun Apr 01, 2012 12:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
Running in the colours of Derbyshire racing who have had quite a lot of success recently with their horses with John Mackie, including 2 winners this past week. John Mackie has his horses in fine fettle at the moment and has had 2 winners, 4 seconds and 2 thirds from last 13 runners.
Arizona john had a run over 14fs at Wolverhampton recently and should strip race fit today, horse was too high in the h'cap last season and has now dropped to a more realistic level but still managed a 3rd off 80 over C/D last june btn just 3 3/4 lengths. Had won twice in 2010 from 77 and 81 over 12fs at Catterick and runs today in a class 5 for the 1st time since 2009.
The amateur jockey won this race last year on board Jeer who opposes today and looks the danger.
Joined: 08 Oct 2009
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Location: Asking Big Bucks to finish Grand Crus
Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 12:02 pm Post subject:
3.30 ASCOT - ORTHODOX LAD (NAP) The Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over two miles on the card is definitely an intriguing contest and to be honest the John Ferguson trained Creekside is short as is Lexis Boy, and there is no value whatsoever in siding with him where if i am honest he limited his handicapping capabilities when he won a good race on debut (in reference to creekside). Since then he has become thoroughly exposed and that tends to be because the horse went from a maiden hurdle into a novice hurdle, and novice hurdles nowadays are more competitive than maiden hurdles could ever be. What interests me in this contest however is the fact that one seems to slip under the value raider and is currently trading at around 10/1. That is Orthodox Lad who is clearly well handicapped in my opinion running in moderate novice events but on his penultimate start the horse was a severe eyecatcher at Musselburgh over this distance when he was only a half length behind Kie who is rated 133 and if that form is to be believed then Orthodox Lad in my opinion should be rated in the mid 120s especially considering the horse has only had three starts over hurdles and is open to improvement. It is also worth noting that Creekside was levels with Orthodox Lad on this occasion but couldn't land a blow yet Orthodox Lad receives 5lbs off Creekside today suggesting that form would be even more difficult to reverse. Orthodox Lad should be a strong contender.
3.55 DONCASTER - SIDE GLANCE I find this contest an intriguing one this afternoon and not because of the mere potential on offer but the fact that Side Glance is in most places 10/11. This horse is the form horse in the line up being beaten by the likes of Frankel and considering he has beaten some of these before over the Ascot straight mile in another listed contest, it makes opposing him seem a little but of a hope more than justified reason as he should take all the beating in this field. The only factor the layers will have going for them is the fact that the horse hasn't got a good record fresh. But i am sure Andrew Balding would not be sending Side Glance for this race if he did not think the horse was ready for such a task on seasonal debut. The 10/11 is value here, i thought we would be seeing prices in the range of 8/13 but the 10/11 is value and could prove to be serious value after the contest.
4.30 DONCASTER - KING OF WANDS (NB) This could be a stellar hour for favourite backers as after Side Glance scoots up we have another piece of value in King Of Wands for the in form John Gosden clan who have been on fire recently. He also showed that as a trainer despite long absences, his horses won't be lacking on the fitness side as Arctic Cosmos displayed yesterday and he is a horse who doesn't really show his best first time out, however King Of Wands is more of a fresh horse who brings good form fresh to the table. While this trip is a minimum, the horse still has the speed for it and considering that he will enjoy the quick ground he has everything in his favour the way you would want an evens favourite to have and once again i cannot find a reason to oppose him in this weak affair. _________________ Follow Me On Twitter
Felt this horse was a little unlucky after winning on its 1st run at Southwell last year, getting beaten a hd in a class 3 at Newmarket and 3/4 length in a class 4 at Sandown both over 1 mile. Think this 7fs could suit it today and as likes to race prominently shouldn't find the 1 draw a problem. Gerard Butler had a winner here yesterday and think this one will go close, ew bet imo.
Probably little more than an average maiden with a worthy favourite in the shape of the Michael Bell trained Born To Surprise - beaten a shade under 3L on his only start as a 2yo over 7f at Warwick behind the Bin Suroor trained famous Poet - he looks sure to run a big race if anywhere near straight for his seasonal debut but personally I wouldn't be rushing to take quotes of around 4/6 despite his clear chance on the book. If you prefer to agree with the bookmakers then the places should be fought out between Sequoia - Mutafaakir & Highland Duke ; it is then 33/1 and upwards bar those four. Of those at the tail end of the market I'm prepared to risk a speculative minimum Each Way investment on the David O'Meara trained Penang Pegasus @125/1 - available at Ladbrokes. The son of Zamindar had just the one start as a youngster when looking green and in need of the outing at Haydock when a well beaten 8th behind the Godolphin runner Gold Rally ; he wasn't totally unfancied that day - starting at only 8/1 with a number of the much bigger yards having opponents in the race. Penang Pegasus showed only a modest sign of ability that day and any supporters today will need to hope he has progressed with a winter behind him - his dam an 8 times winner ( 5 times on turf - Good & Good to Firm - and 3 times on the AW at Lingfield ) was a mid 90's rated handicapper at her peak and his sire was a Group 3 winner at two and also ran 5th to Entrepreneur in the Guineas the following season - so there is ability within his pedigree. The going today is the complete opposite from that day at Haydock and one would expect Penang Pegasus to be suited by this faster surface - on a slightly negative note I would think he may be better suited to another furlong or two as he matures. With that said it is only a highly speculative play at those long odds and even a place would bring plenty of reward for a small outlay.......... Good Luck If You Play
Selection : Penang Pegasus.......... 1 Point Each Way @125/1 ( BOG ? Ladbrokes )
Joined: 03 Jun 2008
Posts: 2342
Location: Kampala, Uganda
Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 12:40 pm Post subject:
1:35 Doncaster
I’m looking at Jeer in the opener to start a run of wins, with the horse coming in here with its first win in recent form, back at Wolverhampton over the same distance. The horse will take a lot of beating, coming in here on good form, with that win priced at 16/1 and a winner of this race the same time last year.
Main competition comes from Arizona John and Kodicil but Jeer has ground in its favour and course knowledge. A race with a lot of horses that can easily be overlooked, I feel that Jeer has all the qualities needed to win this race at a good price.
Having plumped for Jeer to take the race, I am fancying a little dabble on Kodicil to improve on its last performance when failing badly down the stretch at redcar last time out. That was over 1 mile 2 furlongs, so the extra distance will be interesting to see how the horse handles it. Coming in towards the top of the prices, the bookies clearly see talent in this horse and with two wins and two placings in recent form, I like the look of the horse to take a top 4 spot at the very least for a small profit.
Kodicil to put a bad race behind it and come on strong over the extra 2 furlongs here.
Jeer 4/1 & Kodicil e/w 7/1
2:45 Doncaster
For the winner here I am going for Keiran Fallon to bring home ELLIE IN THE PINK at a very nice price. This horse did wonders over turf last season, and I see no reason why it isn’t at least in the mix come the finishing line.
A number of horses have been forced out of contention here, the likes of Count Bertoni who takes a crippling 11lbs weight increase having won on the polytrack previously and Thunderball, who failed badly over 6 furlongs.
Fallon will know how to deal with this horse, and with 3 wins and a further placing from the horses last 5 starts, ellie in the pinks gets the nod from me to win all.
ELLIE IN THE PINK
3:55 Doncaster
Hard to look – or should I say glance – past SIDE GLANCE today in a race that clearly caters to the horses strengths. At odds on at some places this horse will be hard to beat, and having won a group one race at Salisbury, the competition doesn’t look up to it. Way out of its league in its last race, last year, Side Glance was priced 50/1 in that one, but has beaten quality horses in the past, and with 3 wins and a placing in recent form, the odds look justified despite how low they are.
Questioning may put up a fight but realistically, side glance will go all the way here
Penitent Each Way looks good to me, considering we’re just about getting 3 places cashing today 1/5 the odds. Penitent is on a par with St Moritz and Questioning in the ratings, give or take, and comes in well above Navajo Chief, despite Keiran Fallon on board. I like the way the horse has always been there or there abouts, winning over soft ground at Hamilton as a 13-8 favourite but prior to that being in the mix in many of its recent races. Two placings and a win from its last 5 races is not bad at all, and given how the field is made up, the trip is going to suit this horse well I feel.
Look for Penitent to go well here and get into the top 3 horses.
A lot of quality in this race so I’m going for the win and Each Way here. I feel that Caldercruix has both the form and talent over the trip to win the race outright. Coming off a win and two wins from its last six races, with a further three placings and a 4th, this horse has plenty of momentum coming in here.
Won last time out on the sand at Southwell, but has won on turf twice before so in terms of ground, I don’t feel turf is an issue here.
Beckermet looks good, but may find the going a little too much, with the likes of Fallon and Buick on global village and George baker respectively this will be a close race. One that Caldercruix can win though.
A very competitive maiden hurdle and looks between five horse and tight in the betting Many have been fancied for previous races and disappointed so looking for a improver Charlie Wingnut done well on bumper debut and got second but has disapoointed since but better things expected but struggled in two hurdle starts but has a much better jockey on board now and that really helps Charlie Wingnut has had over a month off but been doing at home since and will be so much more effective on the fast ground and think it has a cracking chance and we will see the horse in much better form here and looks great value and can get McCoy off to a good start"
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 8981
Location: Essex/Javea
Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 1:11 pm Post subject:
3.30 Ascot
High Samana 8/1
I thought High Samana would be shorter then this and looks to have a cracking chance in this handicap race Lexi's Boy is fanied but was behind High Samana and seven lengths behind when they met before and do not see the placings being reversed High Samana travels well and comes late and should do the same here Getting the hang of things and improving and hacked up three starts ago and looked one to follow Two Starts ago got beat not by much by Cheltenham winner Une Artitste and looks the best form on offer here High Samana also ran in that race Une Artiste ran in and was going well two out but a bad jump cost it and stayed on in the end but finished 10th but sure it would have finished closer bar the poor jump This race is easier and looks over priced to me
4:05 Ascot Safari Journey SP
"Here's hoping that April the first doesnt make a fool of me in this selection today. Available as big as 8 on Betfair last night SAFARI JOURNEY is now best priced 5.5, so i will leave this on to SP as i think it may drift. Phillip Hobbs has a great record with his handicap chasers in April and this is the first of them. The form column is non too impressive with his last placed effort coming nine runs ago back in September but his mark has dropped to a lowly 122 with that run. He was as high as 144 last April when running at Aintree and 142 when second to Pepe Simo in the same month and his form would seem to better throughout his career in the spring months. The selection is based on the yard success around this time of year coupled with the previous form of this one in the same periods" _________________ It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping others to succeed.
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