Will start the cometition with a lightly raced 7yo who's last race was exactly 1year ago. That day he won well running off 100 - he has been raised 10lbs for the ease of that success but I feel that if he is race fit he will be right there. Moore takes the ride again and will know exactly whats needed to win for his dad (who is in decent form at the mo). Certainly has ability and i'm hoping this will get me some points to start the month off. Not confident of a win but some place points at nice odds would be grand!
Good Luck All ........ _________________ Slow and steady wins the race!
Might be jumping in at the deep end here but A Little Bit Dusty been running well apart from last time out 8 days ago coming 13/14 at Ludlow. 1st time out then too for this year and also was the lowest weight he has been for along time which last 2 runs back in October was at higher weights off 11-4 and 11-6 compared to 10-8. Back to the weight where he runs best of 11-7 today. Has ran 20 times and 7 1st 3 of which over hurdles which was the last 2 runs back in October when 1st. Been 1st in a class 4 race be for back in September just a bit under this distance of 2m 2f 110y which today is 2m 3f 110y which this also was in a hurdle. Out of the 7 wins been fav 3 times and won them all and is up £19.45p and having a few good place claims back in 2010. If you can for get last run he might just get a place with good previous runs.
GL and well done to Feb winners .... _________________ I stake low on bets.
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 4864
Location: VAS LEGAS
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:07 am Post subject:
TAUNTON 4.10
NORTHERN GEM
I think the bookie's see a Pipe horse making its handicap debut and automatically price it up as Fav or shorter price than it should be, no doubt after getting stung on a fair few occasions.
Northern Gem was a fair handicapper on the flat and was bought to go jumping for £14,000 at the sales, after running 3rd on his final start on the flat.
Had 3 runs over hurdles for Pipe and despite falling on first start and then running 5th and 4th, they weren't bad runs on ground a lot softer than he had encountered in any of his runs on the flat.
Hasn't run for just over 2 years, so looks like something went amiss but hopefully connections patience will be rewarded today.
Should be much better suited by the faster ground and his handicap mark of 100 looks a fair starting point.
Although having a long layoff to overcome, very few trainers as good as Pipe for getting them ready after such a long break.
Joined: 25 Jun 2009
Posts: 1895
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:10 am Post subject:
February ( with another exciting finish - congrats to JMS and Mike ) is out of the way.
Agatha Christie couldn't produce the twists and turns we get on here in some months. That got me thinking - never a good thing at my age.
So I did a bit of digging into the history of this long running competition. I would not start a separate thread for it as it mainly concerns a tightly knit community and may even have sounded like arrogance or gloating in parts - those that know me will ( I hope ) realise that is not the case.
This competition was first run in September 2008 albeit starting in the middle of the month , hence the low winning score of 208.83 by The Shark. Of our current active members only two took part that month , Meoldmate scoring 31 pts and Mike Mercury a whopping 8.25 pts.
The first real month was therefore October 2008 and won by Bluemal , still a regular on here whenever possible. MOM amd Mike did a bit better this time.
Meoldmate did not run this event initially but has done a fantastic job since inheriting the post from Deco , well worthy of the Timex watch for which he qualifies in about another 47 years !
Nelix said at the end of December that this comp was getting more difficult. Meoldmate said that February was one of the best so far.
A close finish may often disguise poor tipping but the scoring was actually very high considering the shorter month - with 7 players scoring 300+ and an incredible 12 scoring 290+ !
I therefore thought it would be interesting to see whether in fact the scoring had improved since those early days.
In October 2008 Bluemal set the bar high with a score of 445 pts which was not beaten until Vivian scored 458.17 in February 2009. That record stood until Deaders won in July 2009 scoring 465.50 with Gerardpat an unlucky runner up with 463.82 , more than enough to have won most months easily prior to that.
Deaders won again in September 2009 this time scoring 479.50. This record was shortlived though as Ducu set the new high of 491.68 in November. Alammcdonald must have felt a bit sick as runner up with a score of 472.95 which still remains the highest score not to win the competition.
Ducu's record stood until I topped it with 493.80 in June 2010. This was obviously beginner's luck as I was only in my third month. The winning margin was 136.50 , the highest seen till then.
Everyone was suitably surprised , few more so than me , rather than impressed by that and things became stabilised for a while. That was till November , when I did the unthinkable and scored 528.50 in a 30 day month , setting a new high margin of 169.50 in the process.
I must again point out that I am a fun tipster ( who knows a bit about what I am doing ) but certainly do not profess to be an equal to some of the experts on here. It is more that the style of the comp seems to have favoured me so far.
The very next month everyone was out to get me , so much so that TheBooyRooney could only manage 3rd place with 435 points , the highest ever score not to win a prize. In fact 325.50 was only good enough for 8th place and in all 12 players scored 289+.
So into 2011 and what a way to start. Dicky's first tip of the month won at 50/1 , an amazing 170 pts ! He eventually scored 520.25 as we all tried to play catch up and is still the only other player to reach 500 despite several coming very close before ultimately failing to scale the dizzy heights. Also in this month , Blueboy was remarkably only 5th with a very good score of 362.25.
March 2011 saw Bully1981 score 340.05 and only finish 6th , a similar fate awaited Fraggle with 344 in May.
Surely the scoring frenzy had to stop somewhere. Maybe , but apparently we were only just getting warmed up.
In July 2011 I could only finish 6th with 354 pts and in total 10 players scored 310 or better !
Things did then quieten down for a while until another scoring frenzy took place last month and whilst the competition was hard fought throughout , with February being a short month , the winning scores were not exceptional. However , an astounding 12 players still managed to get 290 pts or more. What would have happened with a 31 day month can only be estimated but scores would probably have been quite a bit higher as the last minute selections of outsiders in an attempt to catch up would have been delayed a couple of days and standard tips in place slightly longer.
So it seems anyone that claims this competition is getting more difficult to win , is probably correct.
On that basis , my record winning margin is likely to remain a millstone round my neck as runaway winners will become less likely - BUT the way things are going , it is surely only a matter of time before we see more scores in the 500's and eventually 528.50 being obliterated from the record books.
I am not being falsely modest when I say I am a part time tipster who does little studying of the other races but what I can say without fear of contradiction is that in general my tipping has improved considerably since joining the happy band that participate in the ' One A Day '. One can hardly fail to gain from the knowledge and expertise shown by some in evaluating what is usually one of the most difficult races of the day to unravel , unlike other comps where you can select horses in whatever race you choose.
The unique scoring system adds to the excitement as it rewards looking for , and finding , value in the bigger priced runners rather than just looking for the most likely winner.
The requirement to justify the selection is also of paramount importance. Initially it may seem like a bit of bolshy red tape , but it goes a long way towards understanding the thought processes of the more experienced tipsters around. I genuinely feel humble in their company.
If I have any regret about finding this competition , it is that it is compulsive and takes up far too much time !
You lot have Kerry's Requiem to blame. That was the first tip I made in this comp back in April 2010. It was second at 20/1 meaning that as a newbie I was actually leading after the first day. If only it had not finished in the first three , I may simply have given up , saying ' this is not for me '.
So much for the ramblings of a boring old f**t. Who will be next to step into the One A Day ' Hall Of Fame '
todays selection is for the in form trainer alan king and his number 1 jockey robert thornton.the selection is still a maiden after 8 races but its last race when finishing second beaten 8 lengths by CORKAGE is a really good run in a slightly better grade than this one today.the distance today will suit as will the ground conditions so a repeat of the last run could well see this break its maiden tag today. _________________ its not personnal,just my opinion
A bit of a boring selection for day one but I can't find an alternative I liked, looked at Northern Jem but showed all its best form on Soft going and the long Lay off is off putting.
This horse ran second in a decent race at Donny last time out and the winner of that race is now running in the high 120's, he's only up 1lb for that run and with only a handful of runs over timber is likely to be improving but wouldn't really have to to win this. The good ground looks to be a positive and King has been firing in the winners of late so at 4/1 this looks a certain points scorer. _________________ Horse Racing One A Day Winner April 11
Horse Racing One A Day Winner July 11
Football One A Day Winner Sept 11
NFL Handicap Challenge Winner Oct 11
Horse Racing One A Day Winner Dec 11
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 3049
Location: County Durham
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:32 am Post subject:
Guards Chapel
Gary Moore runs 2 in the race with young claimer Josh Moore on this and Jamie Moore on the other selection, to the naked eye it looks like Mossini is the stables first choice with Jamie on board.
Guard's Chapel is only a 4yo and has only had 3 runs under rules, first time out he was well beaten in a 2m 2f juvenile hurdle, before easily winning a juvenile maiden over 2 miles.
He finished 3rd in another juvenile hurdle over 2 miles last time he ran over hurdles but had to concede 7lb to all of the field, he has won recently on the flat over 2 miles to suggest he is still bang in form.
Today is his first run in handicap company and he gets in here with a mark of 110, less the 5lb that Josh carries, who rode him when he won last year.
Joined: 21 Jan 2008
Posts: 7288
Location: BURTONWOOD
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:36 am Post subject:
16:10 TAUNTON
The Carlsberg Handicap Hurdle, a class four event in which twelve currently go to post. There seems plenty in with a decent chance of scooping top prize, especially the selection Guards Chapel. Trained by Gary Moore & ridden by son & five pound claimer Joshua Moore; Guards Chapel arrives here having had just the three hurdle starts. Though he needs to prove he as the stamina for this distance, it’s interesting that his two better efforts over flights have come when the ground as been ridding quick. The form of both those runs doesn’t appear to be that strong though his latest effort when finishing third behind Saqil as High Samana, for which the selection finished in front of, since finishing second at Haydock, behind Une Artiste in a class two event. In that context, it’s possible the selection could hold a fair bit of ability & with these quicker conditions hugely in favour, it would be disappointing if he wasn’t able to go close. The other I thought could go well is Orang Outan from the Laura Hurley stable. Current ground conditions don’t appear to be a threat on the evidence of previous efforts though one slight negative would be his run when last seen. He’s clearly had his problems, having been off the track for almost two years prior to winning on his come back three starts ago, but worryingly is, he’s again not been seen for three months prior to that disappointing effort at the beginning of December. It’s taken on trust, the well being of this horse, though if back in tip top shape, then he’s sure to have a say in the finish.
Joined: 11 Feb 2010
Posts: 238
Location: Whitworth-Lancs
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:40 am Post subject:
GUARDS CHAPEL
A winner on the all weather the other day so we know he will be race fit. A winner over 2 miles at Wincanton and he won that easy by 11 lengths and he wasn't stopping that day so should stay the extra distance. The going the day he won was good to firm so the going today he meets should be ideal. The trainer has 2 entered in the race but this looks his best prospect as the other one has been off the track for awhile and might need the race.
A winner in this class and the stables runners have been winning at a 14% strike rate in the last 14 days.
Joined: 13 Feb 2008
Posts: 3070
Location: Oradea/Romania
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:58 am Post subject:
16,10 Taunton
A Little Bit Dusty (GB)
Interesting race, 12 runners, no clear favorite, just two winner at today distance, A Little Bit Dusty is the only runner with high performance and results in last year, impressive SR at his age, just 4y, so far win 7 race and places in others 4 from total of 20 runs in carrier, until March last year participated just at short distance, sine then up distance with very good results around today distance, so have 3 wins from 2m to over 2m, no good on latest outing in last month at superior class of race, but between today runner show best results in last year, competition result show have big chance at today class of race.
Well im hopeful i will beat my 8.25pts with this old monkey today
ORANG UTAN
Gets the vote as handles most types of ground and lightly raced of late Jioined current yard Three runs ago and needed all the tough 2miles to win that day in soft conditions then ran over C/D and ran well even though beaten 10lengths into Second by Decision who made all and went on to be 2nd and then won again .... Weakened Three out latest on comeback at Warwick but that would be an inadequate test that day and even at 10 i reckon he could go well at a price and has claims in what looks an ordinary sort of hurdle _________________ NEVER WORRY ABOUT LOSER,S THEY ONLY BRING YOU ONE CLOSER TO YOUR NEXT WIN
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