Horseracing Thursday - Discussion

MartynCarlisle · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:21 am Post subject:

I would think it's because Apache Blue won on merit next time out and is clearly improving, but Dystonia's Revenge was a very lucky winner and has to deal with another penalty.
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judoman · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:24 am Post subject:

That don't make Apache Blue 3 times more likely than Dystonias and imo Dystonia will appreciate the extra distance more and is 7lbs better off. I don't think the second victory by AB was any better than his first, certainly not on my ratings. I would certainly take him on in a match bet

MartynCarlisle · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:27 am Post subject:

I'd take him on at the odds too mate, the race he won was very weak. The race he runs in today is officially 23lb better, he's unproven at the distance and didn't look as if he handled soft that well last time.
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judoman · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:50 am Post subject:

The thing is about this race I really dislike lots of these runners.

What's Up Woody - serious stamina doubts
Pegasus Prince - won a novices chase and that don't look enough here
Cerium & Hennessey two former smart chasers now much lower and I never bet them when they are like this - either could win
Star Beat - still higher than last win
Dermatologiste - mare, no course form, not for me
Posh Bird - not looking good enough
Cool Mission - habitual front runner, big weight, likely stamina issue
Heez a Steel - probably looking to complete, off since two failures

This leaves not many to be shortlisted and for me the winner is one of:

Shaking Hands, Apache Blue or Dystonias Revenge (with Pegasus Prince as a possible improver). At the prices there is only one bet for me and I think I will get 50s or bigger in running which will be huge value

tuggy92 · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:59 am Post subject:

Looking at Dettoris horses at Meydan tomorrow and most of them are strong favourties, fancy him to have a good day, anyone recommend which bets I should be putting on as the best option.

DAVIDADAN · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:21 am Post subject:

@tuggy92 If you are looking to back FD in all 5 races,so long as you can get 5/2 on at least 2 of your selections @ 10 double bets and they win,you should come away with a small profit,any more winners is a bonus!

graham sage · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:07 am Post subject:

Im doing a lucky31 on all FD just 20p win just a bit of fun Fingers Crossed

MadScot · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:03 am Post subject:

Morning All..

I see there's plenty of opinions on the 2.15 Catterick race in here and the selections thread..

I have it between 2 in the race,Those are Shaking Hands and Dermatologiste.

Shaking hands was a good 2nd in the devon marathon over 4mile so we know he will get the trip ok,ground should be fine as well,the 1 to beat imo..

Dermatologiste is the other 1 i like here,and is open to plenty of improvement here after winning over 3m6f last month,also i have to say i do like backing A Thornton in these chase's,seems to do pretty well in them.

So i'll be dutching these 2 with a win on Shaking hands and a nice e/w bet on Dermatologiste(13/2)....Gl today Win

deswalker · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:14 am Post subject:

I would say that its a bit of a worry that Shaking Hands didn't win the Devon Marathon isn't it though? I notice there are many opinions stating that his 2nd in the race was proof that he stays, but not many stating that its proof that he was vulnerable off a mark of 116 and now he races off 120? Confused

I suppose he was entitled to come on for the run...
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judoman · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:30 am Post subject:

I'm of the opinion that Shaking Hands will run well but is not that well handicapped having started life in hcp chases off 90. I would want a much bigger price to back him

MadScot · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:34 am Post subject:

Fair points lads,guess we'll have to wait and see,should be a cracking race though.. Cheeky

merlin · Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:43 am Post subject:

Morning guys and girls.... this 2.15 Catterick race is an annual event obviously (weather permitting since I think it's been cancelled a few times). However, since 2004 it has been run 5 times. There are some trends that you can either go with or put through the shredder. However, it looks like it tends to be won by well weighted (light weighted) horses, of a relatively young age:

All 5 winners have carried 10-11 or less, of whom there are only 3 in the race this year:

APACHE BLUE
DERMATOLOGISTE
POSH BIRD

The oldest runners (or 1 year below oldest) have also won 0 times, and these horses do also fit that stat, should it be of value.

I've seen weight stats get shredded, but have also seen them pick the winner of trendable races, so for me at the prices, a dutch of some sort looks appealing; maybe 1 point split on Apache Blue and Dermatologiste with a saver on Posh Bird.

I see that there are a few selections that go against this weight stat, so best of luck whatever you fancy; as I say, they're 'just stats'.

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