Mark Johnston's January 3yo's

jmstocka · Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:07 am Post subject: Mark Johnston's January 3yo's

I thought I'd get this started now before I forget and I'll post the figures later this month.

Some may remember this Januarys assault by Johnston, where at one stage he had 7 consecutive winners.

jmstocka · Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:57 am Post subject:

As we all know come January 1st, all those 2yo's on December 31st suddenly become 3yo's the following day, even though their actual date of birth might not see them reach actual 3yo status until usually, February or March but with some as late as May.

Mark Johnston has sent out the most number of winners with races confined to 3yo's in the month of January for the past 5 years, even with his lowest score in 2009, with just 4 winners, he was still joint top with number of winners, during the 3 preceeding years from 2004 to 2006 the trainer only sent out a total of 8 runners over the 3 years.

2007 - 7 wins from 15 runs
2008 - 7 wins from 35 runs
2009 - 4 wins from 16 runs
2010 - 10 wins from 20 runs
2011 - 11 wins from 16 runs

Although the SP's of the Johnston 3yo's aren't very high, his win % in 3 of the 5 years and the last 2 years in particular, resulted in a profitable LSP return.

Wether or not he continues in 2012 to send out double figure winners, remains to be seen but I would be fairly sure that the trainer is currently preparing a bunch of 2yo's in readiness for another campaign on the 3yo races next month.

EyeNoAgain · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 03 Jun 2010 Posts: 1797

Great to see another candidate enter the battle with the bookies. Good on yer jmstocka.

Any profit/loss figures available, please. Can't believe that you of all people haven't got them.

jmstocka · Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:46 am Post subject:

jmstocka · Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2011 11:27 am Post subject:

An update on some of Johnstons figures for January.
Still got some more checking to do and will update again soon

2007 - 7 wins from 15 runs
46% Strike rate
37% ROI

2008 - 7 wins from 35 runs
20% Strike rate
-43% ROI

2009 - 4 wins from 16 runs
25% Strike rate
-50% ROI

2010 - 10 wins from 20 runs
50% Strike rate
35% ROI

2011 - 11 wins from 16 runs
69% Strike rate
77% ROI

beepee1984 · At Stud Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 2637

JMS, where have you got the figures from. RP has
2007 - 7/18
2008 - 8/39
2009 - 6/23
2010 - 11/25
2011 - 14/22

My concern is this, does this not rely to heavily on one fantastic month last January for Johnston, His 64% strike rate and LSP +13.13 that month increases a strike rate for the previous 4 years from 27% to 33% and the LSP from -4 to +9.13. In 2007-2010 he actually has a better strike rate and LSP in February, but then had a poor month last year.

My query is simply are last years figures too much of anomaly to be used to calculate an ongoing trend?

jmstocka · Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2011 9:55 pm Post subject:

Beepee

The Mark Johnston thing came about as someone on the racing forum last January pointed out that the yard had also done well the year before, not sure if this was put up, prior or during the yards good spell last January.

So not wanting to miss out this year, did some digging.
Your figures look like they include all 3yo races, not those confined to 3yo's only, what we're looking at here is virtually 2yo's, they are only classed as 3yo's due to the their birthdate changing on the 1st of January, so you need to exclude all aged races, otherwise you could be looking at a very young 3yo, taking on experienced 4yo, 5yo's etc, at least with 3yo only races, its a level playing field ( ish ).
Mark Johnston's record in 3 of the last 5 years, the last 2 in particular, been very good, 21 wins from 36 runners.
So I wouldn't say last years figures were an anomally, may take some beating but if he can reproduce his figures for the year before, with 10 from 20, I'd be happy with that Smile

Micko70 · Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:42 pm Post subject:

Interesting, Stocka mate, does any course have a much higher/lower strike rate than the others?

jmstocka · Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:56 pm Post subject:

Micko

Still got some more checking to do but on the few Iv'e gone thru so far, those that have run within the last month seem good so far.
May be worth keeping a check on how the yard's 2yo's run during this month, then compare with any races they might be brought back for in January, maybe just out for an educational run in December Wink

Micko70 · Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2011 11:04 pm Post subject:

Muchas Gracias Amigo Win

DAVIDADAN · Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 3:51 am Post subject:

Don,t rush JMSTOCKA,we,ll be awaiting! Also on a positive note,see how January results reflect on your stats,please consider any late starters in view of backing in February.... Confused

Setbacks happen all the time in racing,injury,not eating up etc good luck with this great thread and to all who follow Fingers Crossed

EyeNoAgain · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 03 Jun 2010 Posts: 1797

All gone quiet on your front Micko70. Have you got any more gems for us?

jmstocka. Like your logic on this one. One other aspect might be Handicaps, Sellers, Claimers, Maidens. Sorry but there would be no sense in coming back after the month had ended and saying that I had thought of it. Also, not wishing to put too much strain on your busy shoulders, but is there data on winners' prices? Better still, SPs of winning Handicappers?