Monday 2nd July Horse Racing Discussion.

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20181

Fire-away anyone Smile

Liking the look of Tribal Myth in the 2.30 Pontefract around the 10-1 mark; it's on a winning mark, the going suits and it has wins at Beverley which is a similar test (stiff uphill track). It has previously only won in the Spring but could be slightly later coming to hand this season, due to the weather. The form of its last race is decent, with the winner being a handicap blot and Brockfield having winning form (it was beaten by Cosmic Moon but that one is penalised today and this is a different test to Newcastle). Triabl Myth has been nicely rested for this after 3 spins this term and could well be spot on.

Any thoughts on the race?

blueboy68 · Legend Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 10591

@des

Its forecast rain down Windsor way, has any arrived yet mate, they say it
could be persistantly heavy..cheers

paultoma · Classic Winner Joined: 08 Apr 2011 Posts: 849

All over Scamperdale at 12/1 today! Best female amateur jock in Serena Brotherton IMO.....off a lowly 69 today having won off 88 last year. Second off 74 two runs back with Serena on board. Pontefract 2.30.

deswalker · Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:36 am Post subject:

@blueboy

Its been raining all morning where I am, fairly close. Also the Thames is pretty high at the moment and this has an effect on the impact that the rain will have on the ground.

Also, they verti-drained earlier in the year when it was waterlogged and they had an abandoned meeting. This allowed surface water to drain to the gravel subsoil. I think it also decreases impact time from rainfall on the soil as it allows surface water to percolate quicker... particularly when the water table is high.

I suspect there will be ease in the ground tonight, despite the goingstick reading of 9.0 from yesterday. I will be going and will get on the course before racing and try to update on here.

Win

_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

deswalker · Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:59 am Post subject:

David Evans always has to be watched in selling races, he has a 17% strikerate in them and 19% in claimers (despite often running 2 or more in the same race). He runs 2 in the 19:10 at Windsor; Scarlet Rocks and Memphis Man.

Memphis is 9yrs old, looks regressive now, has little chance at the official weights and has a claimer chucked on whilst Scarlet Rocks is well off at the weights (only a lb higher than Sugar Prince but he's a 3yo), only 4yo still, was second in her last appearance at the course at the same grade and has David Probert booked.

Only 1 winner right? Confused

Then why is Evans so eager to get Cosham down from Wolverhampton for the 1 ride on Memphis whilst the booking of Probert, although he is a high class jockey, looks very much like a spare (5% strikerate with David Evans)...
_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20181

Des, last year they also ran in a Windsor seller and the same jockey was on Memphis Man; Scarlett Rocks won that race and is better weighted tonight. Cosham does goes from Wolves to Windsor, but he only has one ride there too, in the 2.45 so may not be that significant. What about POSE in that race....think it's either yourself or Insideman who tracked this one a bit Confused

I also think to kick the day off, Yes It's The Boy @4 2.15 Wolves is a Lay on the stats, Walker not strong with sprinters of this profile and the only threat is the first time blinkers. Fingers Crossed

blueboy68 · Legend Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 10591

Hope you're wrong Merlin, took 7/1 last night for it, Callans only ride before
heading to Windsor, Plus the jockey Guillambert who rides for Walker most
and has ridden this before is at Wolves, yet Callan still goes there,
Easterby horse probable danger

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20181

Good luck Blueboy.... Smile

He does do well with favourites in general so from my point of view I hope it drifts and for you, hope the cash keeps coming Laughing

deswalker · Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:43 pm Post subject:

I remember it well merlin, I backed Scarlet in that one... they have also both contested a handicap over course and distance where Memphis finished in front of Scarlet... Cheeky

I have no doubt that Scarlet is the better horse on their respective days but that logic doesn't always follow in this kind of situation I find.

Wink

Yer, Pose. Came up on my tracker. I can't see it living with either of the Evans horses on these terms to tell the truth if they are on a going day.

Cheeky

_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20181

True Des, but I think that in that handicap race, Memphis Man ran off 57, Scarlett Rocks off a 'relatively whopping' 73, so on paper totally agree with you that shouldn't be winning, even for a clever old Fox like Dave Evans.

tsunamijon · Classic Winner Joined: 24 Apr 2008 Posts: 941

In the 2.45 wolves I really like Loyal Royal as an e/w bet, travelled extremely well LTO and looks to have an excellent chance of at least placing here. The top 3 in the market look to all have some win claims but there are some inconsistencies in form.

kev2oo9 · Group 1 Class Joined: 16 Feb 2011 Posts: 308

in the opener i quite like look of Samba Night to place as morris 1/13 on trainers 3yos here but 7 further places and Kyllachy Dancer as jock had 3 3rd places from 4 3yo runners here for quinn

5/1 n 7/1