Horse Racing Discussion - Monday 20/5/13

man o bong · Legend Read My Blog! Joined: 12 Aug 2005 Posts: 12378

Lets try to have one day without a single negative comment about a jockey. Even if it is justified, let's see if we can just ignore it for 24 hours

Go one, test yerselves
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oldmansea · Group 1 Class Joined: 01 Mar 2011 Posts: 330

Seconded about Jockeys, we should be navel gazing to find out why we choose the wrong horse rather shuffle off the blame.

Just in case it helps anyone with their selections on Monday, you should always try and see the pattern in a horse. They all improve at different rates over time and have setbacks too and that can be determined by lots of factors, but the certainty is that at different times they may well be in front or behind their handicap mark. If you see a horse that had promise, say as a three year old in the summer and then disappoint with a new handicap mark, then run a much better race in the Autumn before being put away for the winter, it may well be that the Autumn run was the start of that horses second surge of improvement and it will emerge from winter quarters ahead of the handicapper. If the horse is priced on its pre surge handicap mark you have a bet. If the trainer knows that, then after a promising prep run the horse may be ready. The trick is not to take that as gospel but as an example of how a particular horse may have developed over time. With my temperature system I can confirm a horses well being to a high degree and forecast when surges are likely to take place, but anyone who develops the knack can read a horse and see what it is likely to be doing physically and mentally.

The reason that I like jumps is I have more data to work with.

Trainers get to know their horses and if they work with it rather than to the dictates of impatient owners then the horse can be properly targetted.

I hope the above explains a little of why, Ardmay, win lose or draw should have been given careful consideration in a field of largely exposed animals and how important it is to see value.

Good luck to all who bet tomorrow and the search for value continues.

gmoney08 · Group 2 Class Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Posts: 158

Oldmansea...I respect your knowledge, time and effort...but please be knid enough to give a few tips!!...It would be great and help not just me but others on here trying hard to find time to study, create, analysis..etc...I Fingers Crossed

oldmansea · Group 1 Class Joined: 01 Mar 2011 Posts: 330

I appreciate it is difficult to find the time but if you cut down the bets and specialise, research thoroughly on very few races and only bet in the 'right' races it isn't too difficult to make money. If you specialise then you will have enough time, even if you only bet once a week, as you get better at seeing value and the right races to bet in, with the right shape and at the right course then you will find you can bet more, more profitably. Then it becomes enjoyable, but the truth is there is no shortcut and if you don't have the hours, specialising is the only answer. Des, has done exactly the same and he is a great model to follow. I probably bet more than him and at a wider range but only because I am ancient and have put more time in. You just have to decide whether you like a bet or want to win money. I am not too bothered by either but I do like to be right.

nisa30 · Group 3 Class Joined: 04 Mar 2013 Posts: 56

Why all the fuss about oldmanseas non posting of selections !!!!!! People on here are giving him some sort of hero status . Personally I cud n give a dogs do do if he never put a selection everyone can make their own judgement on a race and if they cant there are people like merlin des craig hre and those that have been booted sadly of the site. So plz plz give up on begging oldmansea for his selections he s only a punter like everyone else on here no better and im sure if truth be known a worse one than some . Y oh y would u want his selections. As regards jockey bashing the game is rotten so all punters I believe have a right to have a pop at non trying jockeys wen they lose their hard earned cash due to a jock pulling a horse. My advice is to only back the non trying jocks wen they ride for the big stables in the big races as a trainer told me these jocks will never pull horses wen riding for big stables in the top races.

deswalker · Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:33 pm Post subject:

paddygannon · 2yo Joined: 26 Apr 2013 Posts: 5

(music stop) 15.00 southwell- ran an ok race in catterick on her debut and mark johnston has a strike rate of 5/11 with 2 year olds in the past 2 years. this is a weaker race than before so it gets my vote, plus franny's the man for the job.

paddygannon · 2yo Joined: 26 Apr 2013 Posts: 5

RICHARD HUGHES could do some damage in the first 3 races at windsor but the horse i have my eye on is BEEP at the 19.40 at windsor, yard won this in 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010, and their runners are curerntly in excellent form.

ledgeleeds · Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 11:06 pm Post subject:

Why bash a non trying jockey?.
It's the owner or trainer that gives the jockey the riding instructions. If the jockey isn't trying then it's most likely because that's what he's been told to do.
If a jockey doesn't try when he's told to ride the horse to it's full potential then he wont be a jockey for very long.

colster5 · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 14 Sep 2008 Posts: 1243

Hi guys.

Anyone know much about Twentyfourseven in the 2.40 at Redcar? I've heard he has a great chance and should win on debut.

deswalker · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 8:46 am Post subject:

I notice that HRE has gone for Verinco today in the 16:10. I like the look of this horse in terms of handicapping v ability (heaven knows why it has been dropped 8lbs in the handicap since his decent 6th in The Catterick Dash, he's only had 2 runs on the all-weather on which he doesn't act).

However, I do wonder if he is going to be fit enough to do himself justice.

What do people think?

Confused

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deswalker · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 9:26 am Post subject:

Also, why on earth is Noverre To Go 5/1 for the claimer to open the card at Windsor?!

Shocked

Off a mark of 82 carrying 9-5, his nearest rival on official figures has 6lbs to find!

He ran well at the track 2 runs ago over 5f, although was slightly outgunned in a better race lto (something of the story of this one's career...), however at his level he is admirably consistent.

That price is a big surprise.

Confused

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"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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