Remix has dropped to a mark of 60 and makes debut for the Hollinshead yard, there could be more to come as a 4yo but he is on a mark that may need more leniency. Striker Torres has dropped down the handicap, and now 6lb lower than when starting last term, runs well fresh and now 8lb lower than when 3rd to Smalljohn over C&D. Sannibel has been running well but without lax from the handicapper, and he may need further help to repeat his runs off lower marks. Abhaarth is 6lb lower than when scoring over C&D last term, but disappointed with and without gear on, and something to prove. Prince of Passion gets a 6lb turnaround with Sannibel here on there last running, and is a 1lb below C&D win in January, unlucky last of 60, and a drop of a further pound gives interest. Romantasize holds a couple of these on last run, but a turnaround in weights with Prince of Passion, and the way things panned out, I would expect the former to turn that form around. Marshal Art has something to prove, Blue Noodles continues to be hard to win with, and despite a toppling handicap mark was beaten again latest, and could find one or two to good again. Hittin The Skids should run a race, but he is about right, and though it would be no surprise, there would be little confidence. PRINCE OF PASSION should be able to get the better of some of these he faced lto, and with a better run Martin Dwyer should make up for that today, Striker Torres is interesting but like many of these something to prove here.
4:55 Lingfield 8f ZAMMY
Piccolo Mondo went well last off this mark, and having been off the track for 3years, there was something to like about it, and being lightly raced for a 7yo, there could be a little more to come, having been rated 17lb higher on the AW in career. Rock Anthem is well treated on old form, and is still on last winning mark on recent form, and having gone close last time, has to be respected here. Strategic Action has more to come than most from his age, but improvement takes time and handicapper has in the right place for now. Indian Violet is up 3lb for 2nd to the well gambled Archaleo, and off 56 here is still well in on form by 4lb, and given how well handicapped that one was, this could be a good opportunity before going back up. Bold Ring has been running into some form, and 12lb lower than highest winning mark, and has to be respected. ZAMMY has come right down the weights (18lb in 2 years), and has more to come this term, better on the AW, and having had no chance when last seen with Sandy Lane in December, and battling older horses on AW for the first time, should fair much better here off a mark of 50, with Silvestre De Souza now jocked up for this one. Custom House should be there about, but there needs to give much more than career best, and doubts today. Piccolo Mondo could go well but worries have to remain that could suffer boomerang effect, after long absence and okay comeback. Rock Anthem and Bold Ring should be involved and is respected, but the two to focus on could be Indian Violet and Zammy, Indian Violet has little improvement, but within 4lb of best and chasing home the well handicapped Archaleo last should go well, but there is something about ZAMMY, who could just be better than this, and having dropped down the weights and with more to come on AW under De Souza he gets the nod.
7:25 Lingfield 7f FORCEFUL APPEAL
Jack of Diamonds run last behind Monsieur Chevalier is respected here, but has again gone up for that, and is 6lb higher than when winning 2 runs ago, progressive on AW, and undisgraced each time round here and could have more to come, so has to be respected. Net Whizz improved for the AW, and faired well last twice, and could be in here on a good mark, but drops a furlong and has to prove mark not to high, and may need run. Mignum Bell is on a winning mark, but there maybe more progressive in here. Sulis Minerva is a 6f winner, who has looked in need of further in last two, but jumps from 5f, to 7f, and not likely to prevail. Alices Dancer found things tough, and remaining on AW here, hard to see involvement, Last King Of Scotland is now 12lb higher than Wolverhampton win, and much to high in the weights to take this. Forceful Appeal is 5lb below highest winning mark, and having dropped to 78, and returned to Lingfield over 7f, he should be much more dangerous, Jamie Spencer takes the ride, which is an eye catching booking for the Dow yard. There is more to come from Haftohaf under the guidance of Botti, but having disappointed on comeback, and a fair bit to prove in this company off this mark. Wilfred Pickles is on a good mark now 4lb lower than last win, and dropped back in trip here, and though needing every bit of this 7f, could show a few of these if he is given the pace. Avertis and Kinglami could show up well off light weight, but in much better company now. There are three that appeal, and though Jack of Diamonds is capable, his rise for good runs makes it tough each time, and the two here could be Forceful Appeal and Wilfred Pickles, with the former FORCEFUL APPEAL selected to come out on top given the nature of the race that could unfold, with a great record here, and 8lb lower than when last seen over C&D.
Starwatch is respected back down to a mark of 84, but there is little surprise left in this one, and that is probably as good as he is, Takeitfrommalady looks high enough in the weights at present, and with a little something to prove returned to turf. Cayuga won on handicap debut with some ease, but was given a big rise for that and has struggled since, drop back to 10f on turf should help, but could be something more progressive. Duke of Clarence will not mind if the ground turns up softer than expected, but he was well beaten last, and in the handicappers grip at present. Kickingthelilly may find this to much on the stamina, upped in trip, Greylami showed he still retains his ability in two AW appearances and back on turf off 76, he is 6lb lower than when seen at Ascot, but at his age, could be about right, and though bound to be involved open to an improver. Ishikawa won lto, and very progressive, so there could be more to come, but now returned to turf some 12lb higher than when last seen, and further more progression required here. If I were A Boy is on a good mark, but carries 4lb more than should, and with that in mind is 1lb higher than best winning mark in much better company which makes life very tough. Cayuga is respected in this given a drop back in trip should help, while Ishikawa was progressive but the nod goes to HANSEATIC, this once raced maiden winner, won with such ease on debut, he looked one to take note of in November, and since then Rocakalong (2nd) won maiden and then a handicap off 79 with ease, Stormbound (3rd) won maiden, Spark of Genius (4th) won off 63, 5th and 6th yet to race, and that form looks solid. Hanseatic comes in here off a mark of 80, and should take all the beating. _________________ A Guide To The Flat 2013 - http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1177871#1177871
Joined: 25 Nov 2012
Posts: 1727
Location: west mids
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:09 pm Post subject:
7.10 DUKE OF CLARENCE, WINDSOR 11/2 NAP
i think he is definately capable of going in again here at windsor
of hes current mark he has won3 times over this distance out of 4 attempts
not beaten huge distances on hes last 2 runs off a break back at windsor
today and hughes back on board surely no excuses now as he has had 2 runs to get hes fitness back no doubt hannon and hughes will have a winner or too today its just picking the right ones and this is the one i fancy most out of all the hannon runners today
MALLORY HEIGHTS 8.10 WINDSOR NB also FLAMINGO BEAT 7.55 LINGFIELD
i have put these together since they have exactly the same profile
3 runs into a handicap and both stepping up in trip and breeding suggests for both of them today that the trip is spot on do not think there will be any value for mallory heights as its cumani's and already showing at 2/1
anyhow you may get some value for the rae guest one at lingfield FLAMINGO BEAT but it would not suprise me if the money came for this one at all
i couldnt decide on just the one NB so i posted them both up and they have every chance at there new trips today but id say mallory is just edging my NB selection as for flamingo beat you can get 7/1 now so im gonna go for a double with thes 2 good luck guys _________________ Our greatest glory is not in never failing, but in rising up every time we fail.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Artic Court is taking a drop in class having been raced predominantly in Class 1 and 2 contests recently. Handicap high of 132 in those races was beyond him, however he is now back down to 117, only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark. His two wins have come on good ground which he will get tomorrow, and he should be match fit having raced just 9 days ago, showing up well in a class 2 race before fading into 4th. Would expect this to go off somewhere around 11/4 tomorrow.
Last edited by Crosby87 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
Big price for this one tomorrow, i pointed out on the forum not long back how well Ralph Beckett had been doing with his AW returners and he's sent a lot of big priced winners out. On his website he says of Blazing Knight "He needs a good pace to aim at" so a small field lto would have been less than ideal. Hard Walnut and Hannahs Turn both like to lead so we should get this tomorrow, then it's all about the luck in running. Definitely got time for Jim Crowley in those situations.
Spic n span 2.50 Wolver (6/1 ATR tissue price)
Was unlucky not to score in March when Where's Reiley saw him off narrowly twice. Showed to be potentially well handicapped and a good performer in small fields where he can dominate from the front. Has a bit to find on official figures but should have a fitness advantage over desert icon, receives a fair bit of weight from Tango sky and beat dark lane when bad at the weights last month.
Been out 56 times with only 5 wins but has been out 10 times this year with 7 runs here with worst with only been 3¼ length away which was back in February. Won here over course and distance last month but was 1st win since 2010 but has been there or there about most runs this year. Came 3rd next time out when down in distance to 5 furlong and only 1 length away. Last twice been at this distance of 7th coming a good 5th last time out here and again only 2 length of. Same jockey as last 7 rides but does have visor on instead of cheek pieces today but also is lower in weight of 8-13 when last won here was this weight too.
Silly Bill Wolves 2:20 6/1 (BOG) (DEAD HEAT)
Been running well but did only come 6th of 7th at lingfield but did have 1st time blinkers on and lower in distance of 6 furlong and does like 7 or 8 furlong and placed at lingield last time out with visor back on at 7 furlong which last 2 races been at this distance and placed 2 runs back at southwell again with regular visor. Came 2nd here only by a neck to jonnie skull and was weight of 9-5 and today is 9-4 same as last time out when 3rd of 14th.
Hannahs Turn wolves 4:50 10/1 (BOG)
Just going on form for this one been 10/1 as last 3 times has won but odds on shot. Regular jockey Hayley Turner who has ran on this for last 5 times and placed here at this distance last month from draw 1 and today only from draw 3 so good low draw again also. Only thing is its a better class race and more in the field then last 3 times with max been only 7 runners but did have 13 runners when 3rd here so can place when more in the field.
Monsieur Pontaven Wolves 5:20 6/1 (BOG)
Only won twice out of 38 runs but is regular here but only 2 wins out of 38 runs. Ran 6 times this year all here with 3 3rds but 2 runs back was 3rd of 7th so no place but was only a neck away from 2nd and was 6 length clear from 4th horse just under this distance. High drawn of 10 so draw not in good draw but was from draw 13 when 4th back in march and only ¾ from a place in same distance as today and was higher in weights that day too and is lowest he has been for some time today been 8-12..
Lucky 15 EW _________________ I stake low on bets.
If i had a double headed coin I would still loose and if i had a lucky rabbits foot it would bring as much luck as it did the rabbit.
Last edited by nelix847 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:46 pm; edited 3 times in total
Three strong selections for me today, which I will be playing in three separate singles and one treble
Kelso 29th Apr - 15:40 3m2f Hcap Chs.
Ryan Mania and Sue Smith the Grand National winning combination teaming up again here with You Know Yourself who has been dropping down the weights recently and now sits on a mark of 117 the same as when second LTO. The track and ground should suit this one and he just might be able to go one better this time out. Currently priced at 7/2 with the bookmakers. NAP
Wolv 29th Apr - 15:50 1m1f Claim Stks
Ryan Tate and Hans Adielsson team up here with Officer In Command I’m banking on Viva Vettori needing the run to get back to match fitness after 548 days away from the races but if fully tuned this is the best horse in the race although OIC is no slouch, with its last six reading 121215 but two starts back was playing second fiddle to Hurricane Spirit (Current 9/4 FAV)although that was Kempton and it didn't have that much in hand that day so I am going to take a chance on the placing’s being reversed today. Currently priced at 7/2 with the bookmakers.
Wind 29th Apr - 19:40 1m3f Hcap
George Baker and Hughie Morrison team up here with Cousin Khee was rated as highly as 125 over the bigger obstacles but goes flat handicapping off 79 here. Winning LTO at Lingfield with a little in hand and the placing’s that day have gone onto win themselves, could be well in here and currently priced at 3/1 with the bookmakers. Although this is a competitive handicap I believe this one might just be to good for the rest today off this mark. NB
Last edited by Ianm81 on Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:55 pm; edited 2 times in total
A Quick word about Trainer before I start, trained by C Cox who has been in good form of late with 24% strike rate in the last 14 days raising to close to 50% of his horses being placed.
Perfect Delight started last season with a good placed effort over a distance that was too short for him, since then he has only had 4 runs with conditions to suit (10 furlongs on turf), a 2nd beaten by Expense Claim who went on to win NTO beating subsequent winner Hajras even easier and spent the winter running off 96+ in Dubai, he then very nearly won on the AW which as the last 3 races proved is a surface he is not suited to. His next race was his win in a relatively easy maiden. His next race on his favoured conditions was a 6th place beaten 14 lengths which form-lines are a lot better than originally look. The front 2 went clear, but then again they were the St Leger 3rd and a listed winner. My selection finished in the next group of 4 horses that were well clear of the rest. The other 3 in his group were Miblish (listed winner), Switzerland (winner of a rating of 90) and Viewpoint (winner of 87) all significantly better form than his current rating of 79 (74 if you take into account the Jockeys Claim). His last race on condition to suit again looks poor at 1st glance when you see that he finished last of 6 in a class 3 Handicap, but again if you look deeper and see that the winner was recently a runner up in a Group 2 race and today would have to carry an extra stone and a half and out of the other 4 runners the 3 that have ran since have all won carrying a higher handicap rating, Perfect Delight runs off 4lb lower than that race. His last 3 runs have all came while C Cox was out of form and were all on the AW which this horse does look unsuited by. His run fresh last season wasn’t his best because of the distance, but showed enough that makes we happy that he will go fresh and on this Handicap rating has to run a very big race in these conditions and at a price to suit.
1) 15:20 Wolverhampton - Rock Song (NAP) 4.0
This one was upped to 12f LTO after previously running 9f and less, and loved the trip. Ran on strongly to beat off William Van Gogh and Thane of Cawdor among others. Off 68 and 1lb lighter, this looks to have an excellent chance and I think will improve more. If fit, Singzak is a worry but hopefuly the track fitness will allow Rock Song to take this. The Blue Dog looks to high in the weights and I don't fancy any of the others.
2) 16:55 Lingfield - Indian Violet (NB) 8.0
(also Custom House @9.0)
Off a good mark here. This one was held on to LTO and if let go sooner would've almost surely won. Also Custom House looks to have more improvement and a massive price also. Piccolo Mondo was back after a long break and looked ok, game, but might lack the quality to win this race.
---------------------------------------------------------
3) 19:40 Windsor - Dr Livingstone 8.5
Hughes booked and this one ran v well LTO, staying on at the finish and could've won. Dropped down in trip and this one could be on a good mark here and will find goodish ground fine.
4) 16:20 Wolverhampton - Call ahead 3.0/Cavalieri 7.5
Call ahead showed greenness LTO but after a slow start stayed on very well in the closing stages, definitely will need this 8f or more. Cavalieri looks overpriced considering it was slowly away on debut and stayed on strongly at the finish, nearly collaring the leader.
5) 13:50 Wolverhampton - Hittin'the Skids 13.8/Blue Noodles 10.0
These two looks well overpriced. Blue noodles could've won LTO and should either win or place today. If Hittin'the Skids gets a half decent start it can win, coming from right at the back LTO and nearly winning.
6) 17:25 Lingfield - Carina Palace 3.5 /Visual Aspect 21.0
Carina Palace has just missed out on last few races but run well. With the experience, today can be the day. Visual aspect is a ridiculous price, watching the previous race, although it dropped back in the closing stages it obviously needs 1f less or more, so today it could well front run and make all.
7) 14:20 Wolverhampton - Tenbridge 10/Muftarres 18.6 /Unlimited 6.0
Could only narrow this race to 3, Unlimited probably has best chance as odds suggest and again could've won LTO, given an easy ride. Tenbridge has been consistently close up and with a better ride could also take this. Muftarres is high in weights but looking at past form and the mark, could play a part at a massive price.
8) 18:55 Lingfield - Rodrigo De Freitas 9.2
Held onto LTO and not clear run, will improve and has a winning chance.
9) 20:10 Windsor - Pivotal Silence 8.0
Enjoyed the trip LTO and could surprise here at generous odds in an open race.
10) 19:10 Windsor - Takeitfromalady 30.0
Likes the course - slightly above best trip but I think this could surprise off a good mark.
11) 15:50 Wolverhampton - Buaiteoir 40.0
Flabbergasted by this price. LTO ran just behind Honey of a Kitten, and could've beaten that one with a better ride. Could be laughing later if you take this price now.....
12) 19:25 Lingfield - Alice's Dancer 61.0
Tough race but this has run well in cl3 and cl4, and is on a fair mark. Admittedly not much shown on AW but a place bet surely wouldn't go amiss.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
11/1
(DEAD HEAT)
