This one is stepping back in distance after a decent showing in a class 4 race, having its 1st spin round Southwell in over 2 years but was a winner and a second on its previous tries, so should be fine on the fibresand. Most of the runners in that class 2 race lto were in form runners so the form should work out ok in relation to todays race, has decent form over this trip so no worries there, running off a mark of 79 which is well within its capabilities in fact it looks well in after winning an amateur riders event at york in October. Stable has been firing in the win and placed efforts recently.
gl all _________________ Proud daddy of keeley born 03/05/2009
The 7 year old gelding Ascendant has been running well of late, but hasnt quite managed to turn those good performances into wins. He has been running in class 4 and class 3 handicaps at Wolverhampton and has narrowly missed out, beaten by just over 1 length in three occassions (two of those runs off a mark of 82). He also ran well in jumpers bumper over 2m and was not disgraced last time out at Southwell, on a surface which obviously he wasn't suited to. He is racing off a mark off 80 and with Ryan Moore on board he looks set for a big run if he can build on his recent consistent performances.
The strong favourite is Wordiness , who is on track for a 4 timer and currently trading at around Even money. He was impressive last time out and has obviously been improving and it is possible there is yet more improvement to come. However, he has been raised 16lbs in less than two months and 8lbs since his latest run. Now also upped in grade to class 4, i feel that he may just have bitten off more than he can chew here. Certainly doesnt represent any value to me, unlike Ascendant who is currently 7.2 and the booking of Ryan Moore could prove to be very significant indeed.
Dont put up many selections as i just follow my system but im bored and a few for tomorrow to keep my brain ticking over.
4.40 FONTWELLTCHANG GOOON 14-1 2pt win(Bet 365)
5 go to post for this Freddie, Stanley & Poppy Are Gorgeous Ganders' Handicap Chase (Class 5).And with the ground so heavy i am more than happy to take a punt on the outsider here from the Davison stable TCJANG GOON..Coming in at 14-1 currently at Bet 365 it may defy its odds and go close here under testing conditions.
It is very consistant placing 3rd in its last 4 races,In fact it has placed 3rd in 8 of its national Hunt races.Another interstng fact is that in all those 8 races only money on an Each Way bet would have been returned once as none of the races had more than 6-7 runners.Form in those of 3/6 3/7 3/6 3/6 2/6 3/6 3/4 3/4..
So not exactly one to lump on to you may think.However i think tomorrow could be the day..The horse has raced 18 times in the uk and Gemma Gracey-Davison has been aboard 17 out of the 18 times.However tomorrow D crosse gets the leg up,doesnt ride much but won his most recent race yesterday so may be coming into form but should show a stronger hand than the deposed claimer.
The selection is very well weighted in what i believe is a poor race.Has it got a chance v the favourites in this race.?Well yes it has.As recently as February beat GORING TWO (7-1) by 17 lengths on heavy ground at LINGFIELD over 16furlongs..In that same race it also beat the fancied and second favourite LADY WILLA(3-) by 9 lenghts.Although LADY WILLA meets it on better terms tomorrow i feel it is overpriced based on that race.
Through a form line through LADY WILLA it is matched with the favourite CHESTNUT BEN who beat LADY WILLA as recently as the 14th march quite easily.But CHESTNUT BEN has been punished for its recent form and LADY WILLA gets a whopping 20 pounds weight pull and that will surely see it get closer if not BEAT CHESTNUT BEN in the testing conditions over and extra furlong.
And so the final entrant JOIN THE NAVY,this one may be the one to beat along with LADY WILLA from the favourites.It beat TCHANG GOON by 15 lengths at FONTWELL last year.However TCHANG GOON does get an 12 pound weight pull which i hope sees it beat JOIN THE NAVY on the testing ground running off feather weight.
All the combinations above,weight,jockey and testing ground will be enough to see TCHANG GOON go very close tomorrow if connections are going to go for it,that is the question i always ask?
8 Go to post for this CLASS 5 handicap.And its a race that wont take a whole lot of winning.The selection is a decent sort at this level showing a 50 per cent strike rate at this track(2/4)..Overall form at lingfield is 3118.its first race at Lingfield was a CLASS 4 race and it hadnt the class to make all.But at this level here i think it may be hard to catch despite going up a few pounds for recent good performances.Should place at least imo .
3.10 FONTWELL MASTER CARD OR VISA 5-1 1PT WIN(B365)
Dont normally back under 8-1,but this one worth aa bet imo..This one beat JUPITER REX the favourite at FONTWELL over 23f in November 2012.Won that day by 5 lengths,and is 7-8 lbs better off in the weights for tomorrows race.Stays this far no problem and is in form over this distance. _________________ *SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG* SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**
Last edited by TheBooyRooney on Tue Mar 26, 2013 9:25 am; edited 1 time in total
This race is loaded with unknowns and there is a good chance that one of the first starters is above average, and they will probably need to be above average to win this.
Ihtikah had just the one run as a two year old, over 7 furlongs at Wolves, and finished 4th, about 6 lengths from the winner, however the horses that finished ahead of him were Gabriel's Wawa (3rd), one of Marwan Koukash's good ones with Richard Fahey, who has come out this year with 2 wins from 2 starts. In 2nd was Mumeyez, who resumed with a very soft win NTO, making a mockery of his allocated mark of 77. And winning the race was the Godolphin horse Elnadwa who hasn't been seen since. Yesterday's winner Hidden Link was back in the field. With the racetrack experience to help him, and the age allowance looking beneficial with the two 4yo's in the field, this gelding looks capable of giving this a shake.
Hayley Turner came with a well timed run to win a race here yesterday, and she takes the ride for Ed Dunlop.
Unfortunately I can't get a handle on what the market thinks of it's chances with none available at the moment, and frankly I have no idea what a fair price is in a race full of unknowns, but 4's or 5's would have me playing I would think and a drift wouldn't have me overly concerned in a market like this as there will be many movers and drifters with any rumours regarding any of the chances. Definitely one for BOG firms though.
Day In Day Out went very close 103 days ago when it was just denied by Pairumani Prince - a horse that has shown further progression, winning twice more, including off an 11lb higher mark. Pairumani Prince has recently run well in defeat off marks in the mid-70's against some progressive sorts. I've been waiting for it comes come out again since that run, but have had to wait a few months, but it resumes off a mark of 65, up in trip. The line to Pairumani Prince gives the horse a solid chance, especially if it has improved for its rest, and/or the extra distance brings out more.
OLD DUTCH MASTER
Entered in the Lincon, so I'm not entirely sure when they plan on unleashing this. However, it's dropped in grade today with headgear on, Ryan Moore is booked, and it arrives on the back of two recent runs - neither of which looked overly aggressive. Its mark looks dangerous, and this should be capable of winning this season, off marks well over 80, being lightly raced with some better form off higher marks last summer. _________________ You don't have to make it all back in one day.
Joined: 25 Nov 2012
Location: west mids
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:18 pm Post subject: .
Admiral duque 4.50 lingfield NAP
This horse is a solid runner in small fields this time of year yet to win around lingfield but the trip will suit josh budains back in the saddle today claiming 7 pounds he has already won on the horse 3 times the obvious one to go for is wordiness but anyone can back a 5/6 odds on shot not for me anyhow he will be under a 6 pound penalty today for he's win just 4 days ago thats why josh has come in to take the 7 off again an I think it will put it up to wordiness as it comes here in great form having won he's last 2 starts good luck guys
2.50 lingfield nautilus 3RD
Gonna go for the gosden one here the breeding makes some appeal to me and the fact that he has booked Buick for its first ride makes me wonder they have strong hopes for a win here he normally switches the jockeys around maybe havlin sometimes others Buick booked for its first time is a tip in itself all be it a short price gosden can ready one first time out and that's who I'll be with here today being out of Medicean which need over a mile shows he is not messing around with the horses trip bred to stay the 1m2f good luck guys
5.30 southwell ivy port
last time here 7 days ago was its first race on fibresand and impressed me
a lot of horses hate this surface today i dont think there is any excuses for it not to win this race i think its only gonna keep improving and i think appleby will be happy with the ran it ran on its fibresand debut luke morris booked today and i think he definately wants this one today good luck and at 6-1 is value
4.20 dutch old master lingfield
i was going to post this last night but forgot just come back so ill post it now
with the huge gamble on the horse im inclined to think it is some of the stables money what is down but who knows anyhow it has the visor fitted for the first time which makes it more interesting and it has won at lingfield before i think they mean business today good luck
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